Air quality and health benefits of shale gas development in China Yanxu Zhang Nanjing University IGC9, Harvard University, May 8 2019 ENVIRONMENTAL BIOGEOCHEMISTRY MODELING GROUP | 环境生物地球化学模型研究组

US shale revolution reduces air pollutant emissions US shale revolution, reduce air pollutant emissions. How about China? Zhang et al.,2016; de Gauw et al. 2014

Shale gas reservation of China China ranks #1, huge potential

Fast shale gas development Favorable policy: like lower tax and subsidize for companies. Technology advancement. Heavy reliability on imported natural gas. Developed very fast 2020 Goal: 30 billion m3 2030 Goal: 100 billion m3

Should we develop shale gas? Water resource/pollution Very debatable Focus in air quality impact, not a comprehensive analysis. Leave the government and policy maker to decide if they want this benefit. Large drilling depth in mountainous region (> 3500 m) Earthquake risk Objective: to evaluate the air quality and human health impact Howarth and Ingraffea, Nature 2011

Shale gas consumption of China 9.03 billion m3 In 2017, 74% in residential sectors, 26% in industrial sectors Emission reduction calculated by GAINS model (gains.iiasa.ac.at/models) Spatially allocated to MIX emission inventory (www.meicmodel.org) GEOS-Chem v11-01, Nested China: 0.25x0.3125 resolution, 2015 meteorological data The first part is an estimate of current status. Spatial distribution: nearby provinces, liquid natural gas jars Emissions: using GAINS model, emission is reduced because shale gas replacing other fuels mainly coal. Assuming the generated heat is the same. Data source: HBERC, 2018 Zhang et al., Nature Sustainability, under review

Air quality implications of Shale gas (2017) + Production - Consumption Fuel Substitution Shale Production -14,000 deaths +347 deaths Impact of shale gas on emissions are two parts: 1. production, which emits more pollutants, 2. consumption, which reduces emissions by replacing other fuels. Concentration maps, exact same color bar to compare. Also calculate the associated premature death. Premature death are quantified according to the global burden of disease project with an integrated exposure-response (IER) model. Zhang et al., Nature Sustainability, under review; Stanaway et al., 2017; Burnett et al., 2014

Outlook to 2030 100 billion m3 The second part is to have a projection in 2030, according to the governmental plan. The spatial distribution is assumed to not be limited by transportation any more, because of the many under development pipeline projects. So the consumption is proportional to primary energy requirement. Zhang et al., Nature Sustainability, under review

Air quality implications of Shale gas (2030) + Production - Consumption Sector 2017 Industrial Power -185,580 deaths -7,720 deaths -5,470 deaths We find the reduced emissions are highly depending on the sector in which shale gas is used. Residential sector for coal, biomass, industrial, power, mixing of sectors as 2017 Largest concentration decrease in residential coal/biomass fuel, sector 2017 scenarios. Industrial and power sectors much less avoided death. If compare locally with only the production region, the Sichuan Basin, a net increase in PM2.5 concentrations. Similar pattern for the associated premature death number. Two policy implications: One: deploy natural gas to residential sector has the highest air quality benefits. Two: control emissions during production is important. Otherwise, there is some environmental justice issues arise here. Residential Coal Biomass Fuel Shale Production -262,550 deaths -64,000 deaths +3,850 deaths Zhang et al., Nature Sustainability, under review

Yun Han, Danhan Wang, Haikun Wang, Xi Lu 谢谢! Thanks！ Students and collaborators: Yun Han, Danhan Wang, Haikun Wang, Xi Lu National Natural Science Foundation of China Start-up fund of the Thousand Youth Talents Plan Jiangsu Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talents Plan Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Jiangsu Province