Prognosis After Aortic Valve Replacement With the Carpentier-Edwards Pericardial Valve: Use of Microsimulation John P.A. Puvimanasinghe, MD, PhD, Johanna.

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Prognosis After Aortic Valve Replacement With the Carpentier-Edwards Pericardial Valve: Use of Microsimulation John P.A. Puvimanasinghe, MD, PhD, Johanna J.M. Takkenberg, MD, PhD, Marinus J.C. Eijkemans, PhD, Ewout W. Steyerberg, PhD, Lex A. van Herwerden, MD, PhD, Gary L. Grunkemeier, PhD, J. Dik F. Habbema, PhD, Ad J.J.C. Bogers, MD, PhD The Annals of Thoracic Surgery Volume 80, Issue 3, Pages 825-831 (September 2005) DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2005.03.064 Copyright © 2005 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Life expectancy (LE; ♦), reoperation-free LE (▴), and event-free LE (■) for men after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2005 80, 825-831DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2005.03.064) Copyright © 2005 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Lifetime risk of at least one valve-related event (♦), reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration (■), and thromboembolism (▴) for males after aortic valve replacement. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2005 80, 825-831DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2005.03.064) Copyright © 2005 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Life expectancy of males after aortic valve replacement, as a proportion of the life expectancy of comparable males in the general population. ▴ = with valve-related events; ■ = immune from valve-related events. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2005 80, 825-831DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2005.03.064) Copyright © 2005 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 4 Comparison of microsimulation model (MSM) outputs and corresponding Portland Carpentier-Edwards standard valve survival for 55- (top), 65- (middle), and 75- (bottom) year-old males after isolated aortic valve replacement. ♦ = MSM; - = Portland. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2005 80, 825-831DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2005.03.064) Copyright © 2005 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions