Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts by David R. Easterling, Gerald A. Meehl, Camille Parmesan, Stanley A. Changnon, Thomas R. Karl, and Linda O. Mearns Science Volume 289(5487):2068-2074 September 22, 2000 ©2000 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

Figure 1 Linear trends in total seasonal precipitation and frequency of heavy precipitation events for various countries (7). Linear trends in total seasonal precipitation and frequency of heavy precipitation events for various countries (7). David R. Easterling et al. Science 2000;289:2068-2074 ©2000 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

Figure 2 Storm track activity [defined as the standard deviation (SD) of the 500 hPa height] averaged over northwestern Europe (6°W to 20°E, 40° to 70°N, a 4-year low pass filter has been applied), showing an increase of storm activity in a future climate. Storm track activity [defined as the standard deviation (SD) of the 500 hPa height] averaged over northwestern Europe (6°W to 20°E, 40° to 70°N, a 4-year low pass filter has been applied), showing an increase of storm activity in a future climate. The gray stippling indicates the variability of this index in the control run as measured by 1 SD. The nonlinear climate trend optimally obtained from a quadratic curve fitting is marked by the dashed line. The y axis is storm track activity in geopotential meters (gpm), and the x axis is calendar years (56). David R. Easterling et al. Science 2000;289:2068-2074 ©2000 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

Figure 3 The time series, based on catastrophes that caused losses between $10 million and $100 million (adjusted values), for 5-year periods of the number of catastrophes, the amount of loss from these catastrophes, and the U.S. population (63). The time series, based on catastrophes that caused losses between $10 million and $100 million (adjusted values), for 5-year periods of the number of catastrophes, the amount of loss from these catastrophes, and the U.S. population (63). David R. Easterling et al. Science 2000;289:2068-2074 ©2000 by American Association for the Advancement of Science