Richard Allan, Emily Black, Chunlei Liu

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Presentation transcript:

Richard Allan, Emily Black, Chunlei Liu Department of Meteorology/NCAS Climate, University of Reading Lead PI: Pier Luigi Vidale (Reading/NCAS Climate) Consortium between: Reading, Edinburgh, Exeter, Met Office, Southampton

Detection & attribution of zonal mean trends in precipitation Noake et al 2011 GRL. Work at Edinburgh and Reading to analyse CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations and land-based gauge observations This graph shows changes in the trend of winter rainfall within latitude bands. Observations in solid colours (based on Zhang et al dataset); multi-model mean in solid black and model mean. Blue and orange areas show where the observational and model means give positive and negative trends respectively.

Process Understanding: Influence of resolution on moisture transports Resolution leads to: Stronger moisture transport from ocean to land with resolution Change in partitioning of moisture sources for precip over land Work at Reading: Demory et al., in preparation

Trends in P-E and Surface Salinity Can we reconcile observed changes in P-E & sea surface salinity (SSS)? What are the main drivers of current trends in P and SSS? Southampton & Reading Plot courtesy of Nikolaos Skliris (NOCS)

Observed and Simulated responses in extreme Precipitation Increase in intense rainfall with tropical ocean warming SSM/I satellite observations at upper range of models Allan et al. (2010) Environ. Res. Lett. Tropical response uncertain: O’Gorman and Schneider (2009) PNAS…. but see also: Lenderink and Van Meijgaard (2010) ERL; Haerter et al. (2010) GRL

1 day 5 day Precipitation intensity (mm/day) Precipitation intensity distributions & responses between datasets (tropical oceans) Precipitation intensity change with mean surface temperature (mm/day) Liu and Allan (2012) JGR Precipitation intensity percentile (%)

Current changes in tropical precipitation in CMIP5 models & satellite-based observations Note realism of atmosphere-only AMIP model simulations Oceans Land Liu and Allan in prep…

CMIP5 simulated & projected % changes in precipitation Ocean Land CMIP5 simulated & projected % changes in precipitation Tropical dry Tropical wet Global Pre 1988 GPCP ocean data does not contain microwave data Robust drying of dry tropical land