merSETA Chamber Meeting

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Presentation transcript:

merSETA Chamber Meeting 31 May 2019 Dr Fathima Rasool The extent of shortage or surplus of artisans in the metal industry and the use of ARPL to address potential shortages

Problem Statement Government, labour and employers have been calling to increase the supply of artisans since 1994 Evident in the RDP, NDP, NGP and many other policy pronouncements Consistent mantra “we have an acute shortage of artisans and an aging artisan workforce”

Questions Purpose of Study Is there [really] a shortage of artisans in the Metal Industry?” Purpose of Study   Assess whether there is a shortage of artisans in the metal industry Establish the appropriateness of ARPL to address potential shortages

Conceptual Framework of the Research Study   WHAT IS DRIVING ARTISAN SHORTAGES State of Economy Supply of Artisans by training providers    ARTISAN SUPPLY Pass rates in Trade Tests annually ARTISAN DEMAND Hard-To-Fill Vacancies Wage changes Interviews Labour Force Datasets ARTISAN IMBALANCES Shortages or Surpluses

Occupational Changes in Metal Industry (1999-2018) Artisans

Artisans 38 891 33 Metal Industry Trades Employment increased between 1999 to 2018 by the following: 33 Metal Industry Trades Artisans 38 891 Managers 9 925 Professionals 1 221 Technicians 7 666 Clerks -3 812 Sales & service 2 644 Operators 22 693 Elementary 21 903

Methodology for Determining Artisan Imbalances in Metal Industry (Surpluses / Shortages)

Artisan Employment Growth / Scenarios Determine the artisan employment growth in the metal industry between 2014 to 2018. Artisan Employment 2014 2018 Change in Employment 2014-2018 % Change  Forecast Scenarios 2018 - 2022 9% 12% 15%  102 561 111 828 9 267 +9% 121 983 (10 065) 125 247 (13 419) 128 602 (16 774)

Develop a Typology to Categorise Artisan Imbalances CATEGORY A: EXCESSIVE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS CATEGORY B: MODERATE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Meaning There is an excessive demand for, or shortage of, artisans in a metal trade. Score Between 7 and 10 points qualifies a metal trade for this category.   There is a moderate demand for artisans in a metal trade. Between 4 and 6 points qualifies a metal trade for this category. CATEGORY C: LOW DEMAND FOR ARTISAN CATEGORY D: NO DEMAND FOR ARTISANS There is a low demand for artisans in a metal trade. Between 1 and 3 points qualifies a metal trade for this category. There is no demand for artisans in a metal trade. 0 points qualifies a metal trade for this category.

Scorecard (Index) * METAL TRADES HTFV Survey (Median)   HTFV Survey (Median) TRADE TEST PASSES DHET OCCUPATIONS IN HIGH DEMAND LIST SCORE OUT OF 10 MAXIMUM DEMAND CATEGORY None Below Median Above Median Excluded High Higher Highest SCORE E.g. Welder 1 2 * 4 6 (10) (8) A-B-C-D CATEGORY A: EXCESSIVE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS CATEGORY B: MODERATE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Scores 7-10 points (E.g. Welder) Scores 4-6 points CATEGORY C: LOW DEMAND FOR ARTISAN CATEGORY D: NO DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Scores 1-3 points Scores 0 points

Findings CATEGORY A: EXCESSIVE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS CATEGORY B: MODERATE DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Armature Winder / Tractor Mechanic / Boilermaker Diesel Fitter / Millwright Refrigeration Mechanic (Commercial / Industrial) Tool, Jig and Die Maker / Welder / Electrician / Fitter and Turner / Lift Mechanic Rigger / Mechanical Equipment Repairer / Earthmoving Equipment Mechanic / Electronics Equipment Mechanician / Fitter / Forklift Mechanic / Instrument Mechanician / Sheet Metal Worker / Turner / Hydraulic Fitters CATEGORY C: LOW DEMAND FOR ARTISAN CATEGORY D: NO DEMAND FOR ARTISANS Motor Mechanic Plastics Mould Maker Telecommunications Mechanician Domestic Appliance Mechanician / Domestic Radio Mechanician / Domestic Radio and TV Mechanician Moulder/ Patternmaker/ Refractory Mason / Roll Turner Scale Fitter

Artisan RPL Model DHET/QCTO has developed a model for ARPL. The Criteria and Guidelines for the Implementation of Artisan Recognition of Prior Learning (Government Gazette No. 40691, 17 March 2017) is a process to conduct APRL. This is the statutory process for ARPL that must be adhered to:

ARPL Model Application Orientation Evaluation PoE Registration for RPL Candidate evaluation Interview / Feedback Trade Test Competent QCTO Certificate Gap Closure Work Place Training Not Competent Training Provider

Recommendations for Metal Chamber:   There should be a bi-annual metal chamber report on: Number of apprenticeships registered in metal trades. Number of trade test passes in metal trades. A Hard-To-Fill Vacancy Survey should be administered to all companies annually (Strongest indicator of artisan shortage). An Artisan Tracer Study should be administered annually to new artisans. Interviews should be conducted with metal industry experts on artisan skills needs annually.

Recommendations for merSETA:   An institutional skills planning mechanism should be developed to monitor artisan imbalances. A standardised methodology for all chambers should be applied to measure artisan imbalances. Research studies should be chamber-wide for comparability and integration of findings. An artisan skills scorecard with key supply and demand indicators should be developed.    Develop the diagnostic capacity of merSETA and Chamber Committees to analyse artisan demand and supply.

A research agenda should be developed to produce the following reports:   State of the labour market Current and future artisan imbalances Wage Analysis Graduate (new artisan) Destinations Skills migration in manufacturing Skills needs in national strategies and plans Employer satisfaction about skills training

Thank you Fathima Rasool fathima@frresearch.co.za