State of the Market Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook

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2019 Market Outlook Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook
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Presentation transcript:

State of the Market Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook [Introduction to AE Wealth and brief personal intro] Investment Advisory Services offered through AE Wealth Management LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor located in Topeka, KS. 798032

The advisory firm presenting this content is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. [Presenting Firm Investment Advisory Disclosure] Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. None of the information contained herein shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or insurance product. Read to audience. Do not skip this slide

1st Quarter Recap Q1 was one of the best quarters in recent memory Dow: + 11.81% S&P: + 13.65% - Strongest quarter since September 2009 Mostly recovered after a tumultuous close to 2018. The Fed has indicated a delay in interest rate increases due to: Global economic slow down Steady economic outlook for the U.S. Inflation looks muted March 9 = 10 year anniversary of stock market low from the financial crisis Since then the S&P 500 is approx. +420%!

1st Quarter Recap What drove the market? Technology sector is up 20% Apple and Microsoft +15% Xerox: +60%! Real Estate Resulted from lower interest rates Energy Boost from higher oil prices Industrials Volatile optimism around the U.S. China trade negotiations Yields fall as Bond prices rise 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note helps set borrowing costs Closed at +2.41% - down from 2018 close of +2.68%

2nd Quarter Outlook Look for a continuation of: Recent rally New highs in U.S. equity markets A return of volatility What to watch for in Q2: The Fed in regards to rates The yield curve China Trade Talks Overseas Crisis is a Grab Bag Breino European turmoil North Korea or Russia Q2 2019 Outlook: Look for the recent rally to continue I believe there will be new highs in U.S. equity markets next quarter Then the media and the nervous nellies will begin to pick up the chatter because that’s what they do We will also have a visit from our old friend volatility, which has been mostly absent in Q1 until last week All that said there are still risks out there and into each day a little rain must fall so here my dark clouds in no particular order: Fed decides equity markets, or the economy is heating up too fast and decides to change its rates stance Watch the yield curve if it inverts and remains inverted the likelihood of a recession within the next 6-18 months is a strong possibility No trade deal with China that will upset markets OCGB (Overseas crisis grab bag): BREXIT or BREINO (Brexit in Name Only) and European turmoil, North Korea or Russian doing something silly

What Now? So, what now?

STAY ON THE PATH MOST IMPORTANTLY – DIVERSIFY! Focus on what you can control Stay disciplined Avoid Gimmicks MOST IMPORTANTLY – DIVERSIFY! It’s time to get back to the fundamentals in 2019: Focus on what you can control Stay disciplined Avoid gimmicks and don’t let emotions drive investment decisions Most importantly – DIVERSIFY! Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, famously called diversification “the only free lunch in finance.” Consider enhancements to your allocation outside of stocks and mutual funds – and always keep reading and learning! Remember, stick with your plan, stay diversified, and rely on your trusted financial advisor to help get through the challenging times while staying on your path towards meeting your investment goals   Thank you. I would now be happy to take your questions.