CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results

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Presentation transcript:

CAMx-PSAT Source Apportionment Modeling Results Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting November 14, 2006 Tempe, AZ

Source Apportionment Technique CAMx air quality model with PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) Tracks sources of sulfate and nitrate PSAT completed for 2 cases: Plan 2002c Base 2018b

18 Source Regions on a 36 km Grid

Eight Source Categories ICON Initial conditions BCON Boundary conditions PT Point sources MV Mobile sources ANF WRAP anthropogenic fires Natural WRAP natural fires and biogenics NWF Elevated fires in other RPOs AR All other sources (non-elevated fires in other RPOs, area sources, offshore, oil & gas area sources, etc.) Examples of PSAT “sources”: MV_CO = mobile sources in Colorado PT_CE = point sorces in CENRAP BCON = transport from modeling domain boundaries (derived from GEOS-CHEM)

Contribution of Colorado Mobile Sources to January 2002 Average NO3 Concentration

Contribution of Colorado Mobile Sources to January 2018 Average NO3 Concentration

Contribution of Boundary Conditions to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Canada Point Sources to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of CENRAP Point Sources to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Mexico Point Sources to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Pacific Ocean Sources to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Colorado Point Sources to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Contribution of Wyoming Point Sources to August 2018 Average SO4 Concentration

Summary WRAP point sources are a significant contributor to SO4 and NO3 at many Class I areas However, reasonable progress towards meeting natural conditions, especially beyond 2018, will require additional strategies.

For More Information Modeling results available at: WRAP Technical Support System http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/ WRAP Regional Modeling Center http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/