CCVATCH Primer Jennifer Plunket Stewardship Coordinator North Inlet-Winyah Bay NERR jen@belle.baruch.sc.edu

What is it? Local Knowledge Climate Change Predictions VULNERABILITY Current Conditions The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats (CCVATCH) is a decision support tool that integrates local data and knowledge about a habitat’s current conditions and previous responses to change, research on past and potential responses of species and habitats to change, and local/regional climate change predictions to provide an assessment of potential habitat vulnerabilities. Through a facilitated and inclusive process, it guides the evaluation of how changes in climate will directly affect a habitat and also interact with the non-climate stressors and natural and anthropogenic adaptive capacity to impact the ability of a habitat to persist. Research

What is it? N, P DEFINED HABITAT AREA Climate Stressors Sea Level CO2 Temp. Precip. Sea Level Extreme Climate Climate Stressors Direct Effects N, P Invasives Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Contamination Non-climate Stressors Current Condition DEFINED HABITAT AREA Through a facilitated and inclusive process, it guides the evaluation of how changes in CO2, precipitation, air and water temperature, sea level change, and extreme climate event and severity will directly affect a habitat and also interact with the non-climate stressors of invasive/nuisance species, nutrients, sedimentation, erosion, and environmental contaminants.

What is it? N, P DEFINED HABITAT AREA Climate Stressors CO2 Temp. Precip. Sea Level Extreme Climate Climate Stressors Non-climate Stressors N, P Invasives Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Contamination DEFINED HABITAT AREA Through a facilitated and inclusive process, it guides the evaluation of how changes in CO2, precipitation, air and water temperature, sea level change, and extreme climate event and severity will directly affect a habitat and also interact with the non-climate stressors of invasive/nuisance species, nutrients, sedimentation, erosion, and environmental contaminants.

high accretion (6 mm/yr) What is it Climate-Stressor interaction example 2 ft SLR in 75 years, low accretion (2 mm/yr) 2 ft SLR in 75 years, high accretion (6 mm/yr)

What is it? N, P Climate Stressors Sea Level Extreme Climate CO2 Temp. Precip. Sea Level Extreme Climate Climate Stressors Non-climate Stressors N, P Invasives Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Contamination Adaptive Capacity Fragmentation Migration Recovery Diversity Management Human response Through a facilitated and inclusive process, it guides the evaluation of how changes in CO2, precipitation, air and water temperature, sea level change, and extreme climate event and severity will directly affect a habitat and also interact with the non-climate stressors of invasive/nuisance species, nutrients, sedimentation, erosion, and environmental contaminants.

Who is it for? Examples from pilot project Federal and National Academic State Local Others

Why use it? CCVATCH Useful Information Growing season length Storm impacts Invasive species Nutrient loading Habitat loss Precipitation change Growing season length CO2 increase Population growth Toxic contaminants Development Useful Information CCVATCH

Why use it?

Who made it? Robin Weber, SC, NB NERR Nina Garfield, SC, OCM Scott Lerberg, SC Jen Plunket, SC, NIWB NERR Eric Brunden, SC, WB NERR Kiersten Stanzel, SC, MA NERR

Here’s how it can be applied. Who made it? Pilot Studies July 2011 Jen and Kiersten attend NCTC VA training October 2011 Workgroup formed at annual meeting July 2012 Workshop at Alabama NERR November 2013 Pilot Kick-off workshops Summer 2014 Pilot Workshops NI-WB & CBVA We’re making a tool. We made a tool! We need a tool. Let’s test the tool. Can we make a tool? November 2014 NERRS training January 2015 Wrap-up Workshops March 2015 Final Report Summer/Fall 2015 Reserves apply tool! Here’s what we did. Here’s how it works. USE THE TOOL! Here’s how it can be applied.

How was it ground truthed? Pilot Studies NI-WB NERR Salt marsh (Kiawah) Flooded Forest (Waccamaw NWR) Longleaf Pine (Scottswood Savanah) Impounded marsh (Samworth WMA) Chesapeake (VA) NERR Salt marsh (NERR) Dunes and beaches (Virginia Beach) Salt marsh (Norfolk city) Scrub-shrub (NERR)

But how does it work? The CCVATCH is NOT An algorithm An ArcGIS extension A decision tree A fortune cookie Habitat X m SLR + 0C change Area + # invasive species Vulnerability

But how does it work? Who’s in the room Facilitator(s) Assessment Team Land mangers Researchers Stakeholders Note Taker(s)

But how does it work? What they bring Facilitator(s) Assessment Team Guidance Document Facilitation Plan Maps Data Reports Historic info Web Resources Climate predictions Facilitator(s) Assessment Team Land mangers Researchers Stakeholders Note Taker(s)

But how does it work? What they do Foundation species has been shown to be less competitive at higher temperatures The distribution of an invasive is currently limited by the number of frost days How would the predicted change in temperature affect the current distribution of invasive species? Studies have shown the regeneration rate of this invasive increases with temperature

But how does it work? What they do It’s going to be a disaster! So what I hear you saying is… I agree. I need more data. I’m really unsure. Temp Precip SLR Storms Invasives -2 to 10 Nutrients Sediment Erosion Contam. It won’t be that bad.