Institute for Economics & Peace 4 Research for organisations like the OECD, Commonwealth Secretariat, World Bank and the United Nations. A proven leader in the development of indices to measure peace, and is influencing traditional thinking on matters of security, defense and development. IEP’s focus on Positive Peace extends the global discussion from violence containment to focus on building stronger and more peaceful societies.

IEP International Offices SYDNEY NEW YORK BRUSSELS THE HAGUE MEXICO CITY HARARE Australia USA Belgium The Netherlands Mexico Zimbabwe

IEP’s Research Negative peace: measuring the absence of violence The economic value of peace Risk of breakdowns in peacefulness Positive peace: understanding the drivers of peace Bespoke consulting deliverables

IEP’s Research March April June November December

IEP’s tools: varying levels of viability Small data Sentiment analysis Big data Online tools Data visualization Dashboards Text mining MOOCs Machine learning And of course, a lot of code

Interactive map: www.visionofhumanity.org

The Global Peace Index Now in its thirteenth year Ranks 163 countries According to their relative states of peace Using 23 indicators weighed on a 1-5 scale Developed by the Institute of Economics and Peace Guided and overseen by a panel of International Experts

Global Peace Index Indicators 6 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict Including: intensity of organized internal conflicts, relations with neighbouring countries and number of deaths from conflict 10 measures of societal safety and security Including: number of refugees and IDPs, impact of terrorism, homicide and incarceration rates 7 measures of militarisation Including: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons

2019 highlights The average level of country peacefilness has improved by 0.09% from last year. This was the first improvement in the last five years. 86 countries became more peaceful, 76 deteriorated Deteriorations primarily driven by changes in: Perceptions of Criminality Internal and External Conflicts Fought Incarceration Improvements were driven by changes in: Deaths from Internal Conflict Military Expenditure

other economic activities The global cost of violence, 2019 Deaths from conflict and terrorism peaked in 2014. $14.1 TRILLION Which is equivalent to 11.2% of total world GDP OR $1853 per person If the world decreased violence by 10%... $1.48 TRILLION Could be directed to other economic activities *This is a highly conservative estimate.

2019 highlights Iceland is, again, the most peaceful country Ukraine and Sudan had the largest improvement Russia and Eurasia had the largest regional improvement Europe remains the most peaceful region, improving for the first time since 2014, despite ongoing political instability Afghanistan is now the world’s least peaceful nation, followed by Syria Nicaragua and Burkina Faso had the largest deteriorations Central America and North America had the largest regional deteriorations

10 most peaceful countries ICELAND Rank change: ↔ 6 CANADA Rank change: ↔ 1 2 NEW ZEALAND Rank change:↔ 7 SINGAPORE Rank change: ↑2 PORTUGAL Rank change: ↑2 3 SLOVENIA Rank change: ↑2 8 AUSTRIA Rank change: ↓1 4 JAPAN Rank change: ↓1 9 DENMARK Rank change: ↓1 5 CZECH REPUBLIC Rank change: ↓3 10

10 Least Peaceful Countries SOMALIA Rank change: ↑1 163 AFGHANISTAN Rank change: ↓1 157 158 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Rank change: : ↓1 162 SYRIA Rank change: ↑1 156 161 SOUTH SUDAN Rank change: ↔ LIBYA Rank change: ↑1 155 160 YEMEN Rank change: ↓2 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO Rank change: ↔ 159 IRAQ Rank change: ↑1 154 RUSSIA Rank change: ↓1

5 most improved countries Rose 2 places Rose 3 places Rose 7 places Rose 23 places Rose 24 places

5 largest deteriorations in peacefulness Fell 54 places Fell 26 places Fell 10 places Fell 6 places Fell 9 places

TRENDS in PEACE

81 81 3.28% Changes in peace, 2008-2019 PEACE DECLINED OVER THE LAST DECADE 81 81 Countries became more peaceful Countries became less peaceful

Peace in the last decade Peacefulness has declined year on year for eight of the last eleven years.

The inequality of peacefulness The 25 least peaceful countries deteriorated by an average of 11.8%, while the most peaceful improved by 1.7%.

Peace in the last decade Militarisation was the only domain to record an improvement in average peacefulness

Deaths from conflict and terrorism Deaths from conflict and terrorism peaked in 2014. NUMBER OF DEATHS NUMBER OF DEATHS

Climate change and peace An estimated 971 million people live in areas with high or very high climate change exposure. Of this number, 400 million (41%) reside in countries with already low levels of peacefulness. Climate change can indirectly increase the likelihood of violent conflict through its impact on resource availability, livelihood security and migration. Countries with high levels of Positive Peace are better able to manage climate-induced shocks and tend to have higher environmental performance than those with lower levels of Positive Peace

Climate change and peace Over 40 countries have both low levels of peace and high levels of climate risk.

Climate change and Positive Peace Countries with low levels of Positive Peace have lower levels of cooperation, lower environmental performance, and suffer more casualities from natural disasters.

POSITIVE PEACE

Defining and measuring peace

Defining and measuring peace NEGATIVE PEACE Measures: Crime Suppression Military Armed conflict POSITIVE PEACE Derived through statistical analysis of datasets, indices and attitudes with the GPI GLOBAL PEACE INDEX POSITIVE PEACE INDEX

Positive Peace Higher per capita income Resilience Positive Peace creates the optimum environment for human potential to flourish. High levels of Positive Peace are associated with: Higher per capita income Resilience Better environmental outcomes Higher GDP growth per annum Better performance on MDGs

Positive Peace Surplus Positive Peace Deficit Positive and Negative Peace Countries with a Positive Peace deficit are more likely to fall into conflict and deteriorate on the GPI. NEGATIVE PEACE POSITIVE PEACE High Low Positive Peace Surplus Violence Trap Sustainable Peace Positive Peace Deficit

Positive Peace and the GPI domains Positive Peace has a strong relationship with Safety and Security and Ongoing Conflict.

Peace metrics in practice POSITIVE PEACE Framework Analysis Metrics Findings State rankings Economic impact Key findings 300+ Youth trained Community level projects Local governments engaged High-level briefings National conversation POSITIVE PEACE WORKSHOP

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