State Climate Office Weekly Drought Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 7/1/2019

US Drought Monitor

Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings May 2019 (65th Driest) Spring 2019 (42nd Driest) -1.09” 22th -1.07” 21st -0.19” 36th -1.81” 11th -2.05” 10th -1.36” 24th 0.19” 78th -0.09” 68th -0.55” 51st 0.12” 70th -0.64” 47th 0.20” 69th 1.07” 99th 0.77” 94th 0.73” 85th 0.62” 78th 0.69” 88th 1.22” 94th Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (125 years total).

Divisional Temperature Anomalies and Rankings May 2019 (11th Coolest) Spring 2019 (29th Coldest) -1.3F 44th -1.6F 46th -1.7F 38th -1.3F 44th -1.6F 46th -1.7F 38th -2.4F 35th -2.4F 35th -2.8F 27th -3.4F 16th -2.8F 27rd -3.4F 16th -3.5F 21st -3.3F 20th -3.5F 21st -3.3F 20th -4.2F 9th -4.2F 9th Negative numbers indicate cooler than long-term (1901-2000) average. Lower rankings indicate historically cooler conditions on record (124 years total).

30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal 60 Days 90 Days (HPRCC Images)

(% Change from previous week) Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) None 58% (0%) D2 4% (-3%) D1 15% (-7%) DO 42% (0%)

Drought Change 1-week Change 4-week Change

State Coverage and Intensity

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 329 (Aug 8, 2006) 60 (-10) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 10,642 19,319 9,530 9653 2116 11,991 226 1714 17 weeks of no drought *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (80mm = 3.15”)

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Divide: Severely Dry. Intermittent rains fell last week bringing relief to some areas of the county. Many parts remain severely dry. Ward: Mildly Dry. Some heavy rainfall occurred this week in some areas of the county helping to relieve drought conditions. However, small grains that were planted earlier are headed out with small heads, light yields are projected in these fields due to dry conditions in May and June. Pastures are still stressed and have significantly reduced forage production

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Pierce: Severely Dry. The southern part of the county is Severely dry and the northern part of the county is moderately dry. Having enough hay and pasture and having to cull cows. Some ranchers have culled cows early. We received some rain and that is helping on the crop side. We do not have subsoil moisture so will be relying on more rain. McHenry: Moderately Dry. We are a combination of the Moderately dry and Severely dry. The southern half of the county hasn't gotten near the amount of moisture the northern half has seen. Conditions have improved a little with moisture that has come but it has been very spotty. Warm season grasses seem to be perking up. Benson: Moderately Dry. Will continue to need timely rains.

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Mercer: Moderately Dry. A few small amount of rainfall in county this week. However, with warmer weather top soil moisture is short. Early Drought stress is starting to show on hill tops and sandy areas of fields. Forage issues - Starting to cut hay fields with just average yields at best. Looking at using alternative feeds and culling old cows. Dunn: Rains have been spotty, not normal rain, falling towards mildly dry to moderately dry in areas. Had a stock dam with Blue Green Algae issue this early Oliver: Moderately Dry. Conditions are dry with little showers still happening. The amounts are not adding up to keep up with evaporation. Top soil is dry, but subsoil moisture is keeping plants looking healthy at this point.

Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices Kidder: Moderately Wet. Foster: Mildly Dry. Rain fall this week has helped maintain pastures and let row crops grow. rains are very scattered with no rain to 1/3 - 1-inch rains within a few miles. Still short on moisture, will have good crops if rains continue, if no rain and high temperatures, then crop and pasture stress will be quick to turn moderate or severe. no droughty pictures this week. Eddy: Mildly Dry. Rain fall this week has helped maintain pastures and let row crops grow. rains are very scattered with no rain to 1/3 - 1 inch rains within a few miles.

Corn GDD Accumulation Forecast* Oct 3 This graphic is created based on 90-day corn planted in Cass county on may 15. It shows estimated date of silking and maturity with respect to hard freeze climatology. Jul 27 Oct 9 *U2U Decision Support Tools: https://hprcc.unl.edu/gdd.php

Crassland Productivity Forecast (June-August) *These three maps show the forecasted percent change in grassland production compared to a county’s 34-year average. USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub: http://grasscast.agsci.colostate.edu/

Drought Pictures A pasture near Karlsruhe, McHenry County, ND. Photo by Greg Black

7-Day Forecast

14-Day Forecast

Week 3 to 4 Forecast Precipitation Temperature

Summer (Jul-Sep) 2019 Outlook Precipitation Temperature