JDS International seminar 2018 Assessment of PM10 concentration and its sources in non heating season over Ulaanbaatar area Student name: Jambaldorj Bayarmagnai Academic supervisor: Prof. Helmut Yabar January 21, 2019 Tsukuba, Japan

Contents Introduction Study goal and objectives Study area Air pollution sources Methodology Air quality monitoring results Air pollution source affect on PM10 concentration Future work

Background information: Air quality monitoring in Mongolia 40 stations in air quality monitoring network In Ulaanbaatar 15 stations Measuring up to 6 primary pollutants SO2, NOX, CO, O3, PM10, PM2.5 3

Background information: Air quality in Ulaanbaatar city /AQI/ AQI of daily average PM10 by month, % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% "500+" "400-500" "250-400" "100-250" "50-100" "0-50" AQI of daily average PM2.5 by month, % 100% In non heating season PM2.5 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% concentration are much lower than heating season concentration and becoming lower than international and local standard levels but PM10 "500+" "400-500" "250-400" "100-250" "50-100" "0-50" measured concentration are still higher than standard. 4

Health effect of particulate matter pollution According to office report. mortality is WHO regional PM cause daily estimated to increase by 0.2–0.6% per 10 µg/m3 of PM10. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with an increase in the long term risk of cardiopulmonary mortality by 6–13% per 10 µg/m3 of PM2.5 Source: American Lung Association 5

Study goal and objectives Main goal Make complete assessment about PM10 concentration and its sources in non heating season over Ulaanbaatar city and evaluate reduction efficiency of road and green infrastructure improvements Objectives Make analysis about dynamics of PM10 concentration in non heating season Make land use map of Ulaanbaatar city central area and calculate green area dimension Calculate total emission major air pollution sources in non heating season Evaluate efficiency of PM10 reduction by improving green mass (trees) in Ulaanbaatar city. 6

Study area Ulaanbaatar city Total area of central 6 district: 3523km2 In central 6 district: 1,311,251 Ulaanbaatar city 7

Major air pollution source in Ulaanbaatar city Coal fired stoves and boilers Types ~10kW 11-100kW 101kW~ Numbers 194,839 2,829 158 Vehicles Types Petrol Diesel Hybrid Auto gas Numbers 164168 88945 74532 11981 Total emission of PM10 by each source (ton) Minor roads, 47 Major roads, 300 PP ash fonds, 712 Thermal power plants Names TPP #2 TPP #3 Amgalan TP Numbers of boilers 5 13 8 3 Road dust, 3123 coal fired small boilers, 192 Stoves, 3350 Heating power plants, 21328 HOB, 1041 8 Source: Annual report of ambient air quality in 2016. Data of air pollution source inventory of 2016.

Methodology Mathematical and statistical analysis – to analyze PM10 hourly and daily concentration changes and correlation between weather elements. Statistical and dispersion models results can used to detect PM10 sources in each location Remote sensing and geographical information system tools detect land surface condition and source location and suitability analysis to detect locations suitable for build new green infrastructures and road infrastructures Modeling software for calculating air quality improvements after taking countermeasure. For example i-Tree tools to calculate pollution reduction by several scenarios to increase green infrastructure in Ulaanbaatar city , Mongolia .

Air quality monitoring data analyze results Non heating season (May 1-Sep 30) average concentration of PM10 had exceeded from standard level in 4 stations and 29% of all measured 24 hour averages in non heating season was higher than standard (100µg/m3) 24 hour PM10 concentrations in non heating season >100µg/m3 29% PM10 24 hour concentration during non heating season in Ulaanbaatar area 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 <100µg/m3 71% µg/m3

Air pollution source affect on PM10 concentration Simulation result of annual mean PM10 concentration shows affect of each air pollution sources by latitude. 100 ug/m3 ug/m3 250 200 150 100 50 h an 20 o 0 th ut in o 0 da r 0 l o ais 1 K r 1 uu o S Z is at N g e jin B n T n 7 e e T D PP HOB CFWH Stove MajorRoad MinorRoad RoadDust(MajorRoad) RoadDust(MinorRoadPaved) RoadDust(MinorRoadUnpaved) Fugitive Ash Sulfate Nitrate 50 South Zaisan 120 Tengis Kino Teatro Denjin 1000 7 Buudal North PP RoadDust(MajorRoad) Fugitive Ash MajorRoad RoadDust(MinorRoadPaved) Sulfate MinorRoad RoadDust(MinorRoadUnpaved) Nitrate

Future work Continue to make statistical analysis on monitoring data of PM10 Process land use map of Ulaanbaatar city and detect green area dimension in summer season Make suitability analysis to find suitable locations for urban green infrastructure Collect data for modeling analyze for calculate effect of urban green infrastructure on air quality . Calculate PM10 reduction percentage using several scenarios

References Annual report on ambient air quality of Mongolia, year 2015, year 2016. National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring Annual report on emission inventory 2016. Air Pollution Reduction Agency of Capital City Final report of “Capacity Development Project for Air pollution control in Ulaanbaatar City Phase 2” Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Yearbook of statistics, National Statistical Office of Mongolia. Mongolian statistical information service http://ww.1212.mn American Lung Association website https://www.lung.org/ i-Tree Tools for assessing managing forests and community trees https://www.itreetools.org/

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