Food Affordability Barometer Associate Parliamentary Food and Health Forum 19th March 2013 Siôn Roberts, Senior Partner European Food and Farming Partnerships

Food Affordability Barometer

Earnings and inflation

Economic focus moves East China rebounding? Huge implications: Increased global demand for food Demand for commodities

Pressures on agri-food A perfect storm? “We are at a unique moment in history as diverse factors converge to affect the demand, production and distribution of food over the next 20 to 40 years. The needs of a growing world population will need to be satisfied as critical resources such as water, energy and land become increasingly scarce. The food system must become sustainable, whilst adapting to climate change and substantially contributing to climate change mitigation”. Sir John Beddington Government Chief Scientist

UK cereal yields

A permanent shift upwards in real prices? World grain price A permanent shift upwards in real prices? Great ‘grain robbery’ First world war Second Great Depression The perfect storm 1970s oil shock

Food inflation rising Source: EFFP’s food inflation model

UK food prices in real terms Source: EFFP’s food inflation model

Food Affordability Barometer

Food Affordability Barometer

Food Affordability Barometer Associate Parliamentary Food and Health Forum 19th March 2013 Siôn Roberts, Senior Partner European Food and Farming Partnerships