CIFFC Telecon: 1-877-471-8229 #3971134 Adobe Connect: http://ciffc Canadian Fire Weather Situation Presented to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) May 24, 2017 Richard Carr Canadian Forest Service Wildland Fire Information Systems Group, Northern Forestry Centre Use the connection information at the top to access CIFFC’s Adobe Connect account, and call in using the telephone number

Current conditions Current conditions 14H x 7.5W 9H x 15W

NIFC Large Fire Map Level: 2 http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/lg_fire2.php Level: 2 Previous afternoon’s CWFIS active fire layer and satellite image from Environment Canada (North American IR & topography) 4Hx13.1W

CWFIS Hotspots (Interactive Map) http://maps.nofc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/cwfisapps/interactivemap/index.phtml Previous afternoon’s CWFIS active fire layer and satellite image from Environment Canada (North American IR & topography) Crop: L&T then H&Wto fit, 9H 11.6W then 14Hx15.9W

North American IR Composite http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_nam_1070x_100.jpg Current morning EC satellite image (IR and topography) 14H x 18W

CaPA Colored boxes depict current areas of interest. 14H x 19.3W

250/500 hPa Analysis (12 UTC) http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/sah_50.gif 250 hPa analysis shows jet stream features (or lack thereof) Be sure to send the map to the back of the hierarchy so the Canada outline shows, then adjust the map position to fit the outline. Point out major troughs and ridges and areas without significant features. The latter are often prone to fire if unchanged over a period of a few days or more. 14H x 19W

Surface Analysis (12 UTC) http://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/sah_50.gif 250 hPa analysis shows jet stream features (or lack thereof) Be sure to send the map to the back of the hierarchy so the Canada outline shows, then adjust the map position to fit the outline. Point out major troughs and ridges and areas without significant features. The latter are often prone to fire if unchanged over a period of a few days or more. 14H x 19W

Forecast conditions Forecast conditions 14H x 7.5W 9H x 15W

Temperature http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.gif North American temperature map from weather.unisys.com from the previous afternoon (in degrees F) CWFIS forecast temperature maps for Saturday and next Tuesday (in degrees C) Unisys: 14H x 17.5W CWFIS: 7.5H x 8.7W 6H x 6.9W

CWFIS Fire Weather Index http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/en_CA/fwmaps/fdr 7.5H x 8.7W

Lightning (Thurs pm) Add lightning forecasts http://weather.gc.ca/lightning/index_e.html Maps generated by Environment Canada – Meteorological Service of Canada Add lightning forecasts Frequency: flashes/3 hr Lightning area time coverage index Short-term lightning forecast maps from Bill Burrows at EC-MSC’s Alberta/Arctic weather centre in Edmonton These are uploaded to ftp://ftp.nofc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/uploads daily at about 11:00 am MDT, so we miss the morning update when doing the CIFFC briefing Normally use the 42 or 45 hour forecast, valid late afternoon the next day (which is today when doing the CIFFC briefing as explained above) LCHA (lightning area time coverage index per 3-hour period) populates a cell if neighboring cells in a 3x3 grid are expected to have lightning – probability from .005 to 1.00 LFLS (lightning flash frequency per 3-hour period) Orange indicates very frequent flashes; blue infrequent flashes 7.5H x 12.5W

NAM/GFS 500 hPa 06Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER# Surface NWP maps from NCEP’s NAM model run Highlight ridges and troughs and areas without significant upper air features. The latter are often prone to fire if unchanged over a period of a few days or more. Indicate areas where lightning/heat/dryness/wind may cause problems, and where significant rain is expected. t=66h 2017052700Z Fri May 26 pm each 9H x 12W

NAM/GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER# Surface NWP maps from NCEP’s NAM model run Highlight ridges and troughs and areas without significant upper air features. The latter are often prone to fire if unchanged over a period of a few days or more. Indicate areas where lightning/heat/dryness/wind may cause problems, and where significant rain is expected. t=114h 2017052900Z Sun May 28 pm each 9H x 12W

NAM/GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER# Surface NWP maps from NCEP’s NAM model run Highlight ridges and troughs and areas without significant upper air features. The latter are often prone to fire if unchanged over a period of a few days or more. Indicate areas where lightning/heat/dryness/wind may cause problems, and where significant rain is expected. t=162h 2017053100Z Tue May 30 pm each 9H x 12W

Probability of 10 mm precipitation in next 7 days Circles indicate forecast and/or historical locations of pressure centers. Precipitation threshold may be lower (e.g. 5mm) in dry periods.

Ensemble 7d (t=168h Tues pm) http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html#spagat 570 dam Spaghetti plot of the 558 or 570 decameter (dam) contour from EC-MSC’s ensemble products. Forecast for 156 or 168 hours (next Tuesday morning or afternoon) Tangled lines indicate uncertainty between ensemble elements, and uncertainty in forecast conditions Tightly-bound lines indicate a high degree of certainty of contour line placement and forecast conditions 14H x 19.3W

CIFFC SitRep http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php Summary of the next week’s national fire weather expectations: West BC/YT/NT/AB Drying and warming trend as weekend approaches Central SK/MB/NU/ON Central SK/MB/ rain South SK/MB/Northern ON getting some SH/TRW but likely not continuous East QC/Atl Places to watch: Spotty fire activity continues especially along 60N; south MB -- west ON View the latest CIFFC sitrep – this will likely be yesterday’s Summarize the expected fire weather conditions in the regions of the country indicated. Use red font for regions of intense activity Use orange font for regions of moderate activity Use green font for regions of low activity mH x nW

Please suggest items you would find useful Thank you! Please suggest items you would find useful Richard Carr 780-435-7313 Richard.Carr@NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca