2011 Political Report

Brown, speaking to KCBS radio, said: “You’ve got to get real here… Don’t say I’m going to solve this problem by creating a bunch of new problems that we’ll have even more trouble handling.” *Years of “gimmicks” sale of EdFund, Office Buildings, moving pay days… budget dust * Reep’s want to put tax decreases on too * Pension reform *Brown wants to finally fix the structural deficit

Is California going in the right or wrong direction Is California going in the right or wrong direction? (among likely voters) Right direction: 32% Wrong direction: 61% Don’t know: 7%

ISSUE PRIORITIES among likely voters Balancing the State Budget – 35% Jobs, economy – 31% Education – 15% Compared to 6 mos. ago, balancing the state budget is named today more frequently as the most important issue

Gov. JERRY BROWN Favorably view: 56% Non-favorably view: 38% ____________________________________________________________________________________________ +18 points Favorability has improved since Nov. 2010: 50/42 (Nov. 2010) – 56/38 (January 2011) * Voter confidence in Brown: 53/44 = +9 points * 6 point bump between Nov. 2010 and Jan. 2011 in favorability (like him) * 9 points confidence that Jerry Brown will do a good job as governor (trust him)

What are voters hearing? Majority of voters have heard a great deal about California’s budget: 57% - heard a great deal 29% - heard some 10% - just a little 4% - nothing/don’t know

Likely voters agree a mix of cuts and taxes is needed to solve the budget gap 2011: +14 points 53% - preventing deep cuts in education and health care most important 39% - preventing tax increases most important *2009 same question: 42% & 49% = +7 points what are voters thinking about the Gov’s budget plan? Do they agree with his balance approach? Preventing taxes vs. preventing deep cuts to programs. * Net increase of 7 points since 2009 when same question was asked

Governor’s Budget Proposal Vote on tax/fee package with major spending cuts to close the $25 billion budget deficit Satisfied: 58% Dissatisfied: 29% Haven’t heard/Don’t’ know: 13% Respondent given details of the Gov Budget and asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the plan.

2010 vs.. 2011 November 2010: 10 million voters June 2011: 3.5 million expected to vote Estimate for June special assumes lower Democratic turnout as share of electorate, but not as low as 6/10 primary or 5/09 special. *other initiatives that could appear are term limits and cigarette tax