A CCOE “think tank” perspective NATO CIMIC Vision 25 A CCOE “think tank” perspective Very warm welcome CIMIC Centre of Excellence is the department head and an training institute for NATO. Furthermore as the custodian AJP 3.19 or the handbook an actor in standardization. But here I am briefing as director in a different role: All centers of excellences are small “think tanks” to support the development of the capability. Therefore I want to brief you about our “think tank” ideas. A disclaimer is needed: “Think tank” work is never approved; it is food for thought for decision makers! Wolfgang Paulik, COL (GS), DEU-A Director, CCOE

NATO Strategic Direction East 2017 2018 2019 NATO Strategic Direction East NATO Strategic Direction South CIMIC & CA 25 Civil-military NATO Vision It is a pleasure for me staying here! I am nearly at the end of my 3 years cycle as the director CCOE. To make the CIMIC capability fit for nowadays issues, is my development goal. We took the outcomes of the big summits especially in Warsaw and asked ourselves and the comunity what does it mean for CIMIC? In Riga for the strategic direction east. Main focus on resilience In Rom the main effort on strategic direction south projecting stability. An now and here in Tirana we want to bring everything together to create a midterm vision for NATO CIMIC.

Creativity Is not our hobby It is our mission Why a midterm vision? Allied Command Transformation; and we are in the development area subordinated, is creating with the document Framework for Future Alliance Operations for long-term adaptations 2035 and beyond. We use this material, but we agreed with Shape to aim on a midterm vision to really utilize the outcomes into action. Therefore we are not looking into the crystal ball. But we avoid just focusing on our daily business. We are aiming how CIMIC should look like in 2025!

Fit for purpose now and in the foreseeable future Current status NATO CIMIC CIMIC vision 2025 ACT FFAO 2035 x To create our draft ideas we used a two step approach. Firstly we analyzed the current situation, the observations and lessons identified. Based on this we tried a midterm forecast. Secondly we used the Allied Command Transformation’s big Framework for Future Allience Operations report and did a reverse engineering. The point we are looking for must be on the track between.

NATO CIMIC is universally recognized as a vital contributor to Cooperative Security, Crisis Response and Collective Defense, especially in Protection of Civilians, Projecting Stability and Civil Preparedness. Here you see the created Vision statement and it is already agreed by Allied Command Operations J9! The words recognized & vital contributor: We want to be relevant! An enabler for mission success! Cooperative Security, Crisis Response and Collective Defense: WE ARE RELEVENT IN ALL NATO OPERATION TYPs! And what are focus areas for development in the upcoming mid-term? The crosscutting topic Protection of Civilianson the on hand. On the other hand in strategic direction South Projection Stability (most likely). Further more in Strategic Direction East Civil Preparedness as the early key part of building resilience. (most dangerous).

Organization & Materiel & Facilities Leadership & Personnel Doctrine OBJECTIVEs CIMIC continuously evolving, adapting and innovating, to be credible, networked, aware, agile and sustainable. CIMIC is effective in preparing, planning, conducting and assessing operations. Organization & Materiel & Facilities Operational Design Training & Education Leadership & Personnel Based on the vision statement we developed an Ops Design. And here comes a specialty: We don’t go for an end state! Why? Development is a continuum. Even when we take 2025 as the vision date nothing will end there. We want to reach successful a corridor, to hand over a well developed capability to our successors, which will have to do adaption to future needs again. This cycle will hopefully never end, due to it is needed to stay relevant. The two objectives describe the area we want to reach. (read or let them read) The Lines of effort are not really a surprise. It follows the so called “DOTMILPF” approach in NATO. Interoperability

Offered Syndicates created from Vision Statement & Ops Design Syndicate 1: Civil Preparedness Syndicate 2: Civil Preparedness Syndicate 3: Projecting Stability Syndicate 4: Training & Education Syndicate 5: Leadership & Personnel Syndicate 6: Interoperability Basically all of you have already given us as the CIMIC KEY Leaders a prioritization. With the Vision statement and the ops design in mind, we had created a lot of syndicate topics for your invitation. You were kindly asked to choose two syndicates. 5 topics got significant attendance. 1 topic Civil preparedness even on a large scale. 3 other syndicates we skipped. The topics are important, but they seems currently not to be in the focus of our CIMIC Key leaders. Therefore we have adapted the syndicate tailor made for your interests. Even more: We include this prioritization in our Vision process. Let me jump now into the syndicates. Offered Syndicates created from Vision Statement & Ops Design

Civil Preparedness Syndicate 1 & 2 Civil Preparedness – effective horizon scanning, knowledge build up and liaison network in place, in order to understand, anticipate and support environments and populations. Objective 1: “Doctrinal baseline” Civil preparedness fully integrated into the strategic and operational document landscape Objective 2: “Early warning” NATO CIMIC horizon scanning and knowledge database is effective operational. Objective 3: “Liaison matrix” Liaison network established in order to enable quick support and fast recovery. For each syndicate topic we have created an end state what should be utilized till 2025. Based on this end state we have created 3 objectives. Again I have to underline: This is “Think Tank” work in the CCOE. Nothing approved, nothing agreed! It will be up to you to validate if it is mature or not. And later it will be decided via the official processes – the CIMIC/CMI working group and the steering comity. Therefore I don’t need to discuss the end states and objectives of all syndicates now. You will discuss them in your syndicate work. We see CIMIC as the vital military contributor to Civil Preparedness. We see a need to focus on an early timeframe with horizon scanning, knowledge build up and warning obligations. Currently our strategic and operational documents doesn’t cover this. We have even restrictions in peacetime looking on competitors. The distinction between peace time and war time isn’t that clear anymore in a hybrid scenario. Your peace time and your war time liaison network might be identically. Therefore better build it up and keep it operational.

Projecting Stability Syndicate 3 Projecting Stability – Effectively and comprehensively developed a set of proactive activities to influence and shape the strategic environment, with military and non military efforts, in order to create stability even beyond its borders. Objective 1: “Cooperation & Partnership” Partnership network and civil knowledge integration established, in order to provide comprehensive situational understanding Objective 2: “Comprehensive Planning” CIMIC enables shared understanding to provide military and civilian decision- and policy makers expanded options. Objective 3: “Prevention” Effective counter adversarial and influence activities in place, in order to facilitate integrated security and stabilization. Projecting stability is a tool box supporting non military efforts. We have selected three possible tools, which should be developed that CIMIC can effectively support stabilization on order. A similarity to building resilience is, that we see a need to focus in the upcoming midterm on prevention and therefore on the early phases, too. Effective planning input supports this idea well, too.

Training & Education Syndicate 4 Ready and Resilient – fully trained and educated, CIMIC personnel and CIMIC trained forces, both individually and collectively, to make an effective contribution to the Comprehensive Approach in operations. Objective 1: “Military policy training” Effective training solutions on the strategic level in place Objective 2: “CIMIC assessment capability” Effective integration of CIMC estimate/assessment into the decision making process established Objective 3: “NATO/EU Cooperation” Effective training coordination with the EU utilized As the department head for CIMIC, CMI and Civil Preparedness we have based our ideas for the Training & Education syndicate on Allied Command Transformation’s global programming process. We have conducted a Training Requirement Analysis with ACO and ACT. We have done for example a Training Needs Analysis for Civil Preparedness. Based on this process we have identified gaps, which need to be closed. We have no training solutions for the strategic level. We are lacking in the 9er area own assessment capability. And we haven’t achieved an effective synchronization with big partners yet.

Leadership & Personnel Syndicate 5 Led – well motivated, cohesive and dynamic CIMIC key leaders, in order to provide most professionally competent direction and guidance. Manned – sufficient, experienced, qualified, resilient and highly motivated CIMIC personnel and cohesive CIMIC trained forces. Objective 1: “Effective Leadership” Improvement of the preconditions, to support effective CIMIC leadership. Objective 2: “Motivation” Effective measures taken, to attract qualified and motivated personnel joining NATO CIMIC. Objective 3: “Professionalism” Effective flanking measures in place to increase professionalism, mitigating the missing CIMIC career in most allied nations. In the Leadership & Personnel syndicate we see a need to discuss the following three topics: Effective Leadership – and how to support it. How can motivate qualified personnel to join CIMIC. And how can we professionalize CIMICers; especially under the constrain that in most nations CIMIC is not an independent carrier, but a place for gifted amateurs. (A little bit a provocation…but might lead to good discussions).

Interoperability Syndicate 6 Interoperable – strong partnerships with strategic, regional and national non-military actors ensuring effective information exchange and a Comprehensive Approach. Objective 1: “Clearing house” NATO CIMIC standardization and harmonization achieved, with a special focus on U.S. CA – CIMIC synchronization. Objective 2: “Liaison matrix” Mission liaison network established as far as possible in peacetime, with a special focus on two way data exchange. Objective 3: “Data fusion” An operational CIMIC FUNCTIONAL AREA SYSTEM in place, which supports the J- / S-9 Command & Control and allows horizontal exchange with partners. In the Interoperability Syndicate we see great chances for success. US Civil Affairs is working on their Vision 25, too. I am glad to see so many US comrades here and I am sure we can create a win-win situation by an improved synchronization. But that is military-military, even in NATO. Therefore it is easy. CIMIC needs effective exchange mechanisms to non-military partners. How to organize that people wise and data wise, is the difficult task for the Interoperability syndicate.

Output CKLC 2019 – Input ACO CIMIC/CMI WG Vision ACO CIMIC/CMI SC CCOE “Think Tank” work CIMIC Vision 25 realization ACO J9 Draft Vision ACO CIMIC/CMI WG Let me highlight the process and were we are. We as the CCOE have made our “Think tank” contribution. It is initially circulated with Shape. Here in the CIMIC Key Leader Conference we will discuss it. The product we want to hand over to the ACO CIMIC/CMI working group is a midterm action matrix with the milestones and responsibilities to achieve the vision 25. Decisions, but also the coordination work is than done by the official NATO bodies: The working group and the steering comity. But here the conference in Tirana is a remarkable milestone and shouldn’t be underestimated. Output CKLC 2019 – Input ACO CIMIC/CMI WG CIMIC Action Matrix 2020-2025

“Thank You for Your Attention” Last but not least I want to quote Charles Darwin. This quotation counts for my CIMIC Centre of Excellence. But I am convinced it is correct for CIMIC in total, too. If we aren’t responsive to change and needs, our capability will vanish in future. But if we have the solutions for nowadays and future issues as a capable enabler, we have a bright future. Thank you for your attention. (Questions may not be needed, due to syndicate discussions) Wolfgang Paulik, COL (GS), DEU-A Director, CCOE