The water management model WBalMo Elbe - methods, application fields and first results M. Kaltofen, S. Kaden, M. Hentschel, M. Redetzky H. Koch, K. Mazur O. Dietrich, S. Schweigert WASY GmbH BTU Cottbus ZALF

Model System

Contents Contents Methods and instruments for calculation of water resources balance WBalMo Elbe – model development WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results Conclusions and outlook

Methods and instruments Deterministic P-Q-Model Q P, PET Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Management Rules, Ranking Rules Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events)

Methods and instruments Deterministic P-Q-Model Q P, PET Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Management Rules, Ranking Rules Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events) Stochastic generated climate series Balancing water yield and water demand within socio-economic context e.g. reliability of water supply or minimum flow

Methods and instruments STAR II Stochastic generated climate series Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes SWIM Balancing water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Deterministic P-Q-Model Q P, PET e.g. reliability of water supply or minimum flow WBalMo Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events)

Methods and instruments

WBalMo Elbe – model development: modular structure 22 modules: central module is Elbeschlauch (Elbe main river) each module can be used stand-alone

WBalMo Elbe – model development: water yield is an input from precipitation-runoff-model SWIM: for each simulation sub catchment at its end profile can be an output from WBalMo: at each balance profile at each step of balancing process

WBalMo Elbe – model development: water use -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mine water drainage ] s / I n f i l t r a t i o n l o s s e s 3 m [ Mine water drainage m i n u s f l t r a o e y t i t n a q r e t a w 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-52 5 - y e a r p i o d s

WBalMo Elbe – model development: water management

WBalMo Elbe – model development: overview

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Water transfer from reservoir Witznitz and Mulde river Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results 9 Discharge profiles Border Czechia/ Germany Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht 8 7 1 4 2 3 6 5 4 3 2 Selected water uses 1 Waterworks Wienrode Powerplant Lippendorf Powerplant Berlin-Mitte Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results Wetlands Modeling of water balance in wetlands 35 wetlands integrated into WBalMo Elbe

WBalMo Elbe – application fields and first results Wetlands Change of water withdrawel from period 1 to 10 (median, relating to the wetland area)

Conclusions and outlook Water use conflicts exist both for extreme drought situations and for climate change Water shortages from withdrawals occur in tributaries to Elbe river In the main Elbe river water use conflict is due to minimum discharges for different purposes Outlook For all water users vulnerability for extreme drought situations, for climate and socioeconomic changes will be analyzed, For reservoirs and dams failure in water supply will be analyzed, For most affected water uses water management options will be developed

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