RETURN, RISK, AND THE SECURITY MARKET LINE CHAPTER 13 RETURN, RISK, AND THE SECURITY MARKET LINE Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved.

Expected Returns Expected returns are based on the probabilities of possible outcomes In this context, “expected” means average if the process is repeated many times The “expected” return does not even have to be a possible return Use the following example to illustrate the mathematical nature of expected returns: Consider a game where you toss a fair coin: If it is Heads, then student A pays student B $1. If it is Tails, then student B pays student A $1. Most students will remember from their statistics that the expected value is $0 (=.5(1) + .5(-1)). That means that if the game is played over and over then each student should expect to break-even. However, if the game is only played once, then one student will win $1 and one will lose $1. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-2

Example: Expected Returns Suppose you have predicted the following returns for stocks C and T in three possible states of the economy. What are the expected returns? State Probability C T___ Boom 0.3 0.15 0.25 Normal 0.5 0.10 0.20 Recession ??? 0.02 0.01 RC = .3(15) + .5(10) + .2(2) = 9.9% RT = .3(25) + .5(20) + .2(1) = 17.7% What is the probability of a recession? 1- 0.3 - 0.5 = 0.2 If the risk-free rate is 4.15%, what is the risk premium? Stock C: 9.9 – 4.15 = 5.75% Stock T: 17.7 – 4.15 = 13.55% Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-3

Variance and Standard Deviation Variance and standard deviation measure the volatility of returns Using unequal probabilities for the entire range of possibilities Weighted average of squared deviations It’s important to point out that these formulas are for populations, unlike the formulas in chapter 12 that were for samples (dividing by n-1 instead of n). Further, the probabilities that are used account for the division. Remind the students that standard deviation is the square root of the variance. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-4

Example: Variance and Standard Deviation Consider the previous example. What are the variance and standard deviation for each stock? Stock C 2 = .3(0.15-0.099)2 + .5(0.10-0.099)2 + .2(0.02-0.099)2 = 0.002029  = 4.50% Stock T 2 = .3(0.25-0.177)2 + .5(0.20-0.177)2 + .2(0.01-0.177)2 = 0.007441  = 8.63% It is helpful to remind students that the standard deviation (but not the variance) is expressed in the same units as the original data, which is a percentage return in our example. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-5

Another Example Consider the following information: State Probability ABC, Inc. Return Boom .25 0.15 Normal .50 0.08 Slowdown .15 0.04 Recession .10 -0.03 What is the expected return? What is the variance? What is the standard deviation? E(R) = .25(0.15) + .5(0.08) + .15(0.04) + .1(-0.03) = 8.05% Variance = .25(.15-0.0805)2 + .5(0.08-0.0805)2 + .15(0.04-0.0805)2 + .1(-0.03-0.0805)2 = 0.00267475 Standard Deviation = 5.17% Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-6

Portfolios A portfolio is a collection of assets An asset’s risk and return are important in how they affect the risk and return of the portfolio The risk-return trade-off for a portfolio is measured by the portfolio expected return and standard deviation, just as with individual assets Lecture Tip: Each individual has their own level of risk tolerance. Some people are just naturally more inclined to take risk, and they will not require the same level of compensation as others for doing so. Our risk preferences also change through time. We may be willing to take more risk when we are young and without a spouse or kids. But, once we start a family, our risk tolerance may drop. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-7

Example: Portfolio Weights Suppose you have $15,000 to invest and you have purchased securities in the following amounts. What are your portfolio weights in each security? $2000 of C $3000 of KO $4000 of INTC $6000 of BP C: 2/15 = .133 KO: 3/15 = .2 INTC: 4/15 = .267 BP: 6/15 = .4 C – Citigroup KO – Coca-Cola INTC – Intel BP – BP Show the students that the sum of the weights = 1 Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-8

Portfolio Expected Returns The expected return of a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected returns of the respective assets in the portfolio You can also find the expected return by finding the portfolio return in each possible state and computing the expected value as we did with individual securities Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-9

Example: Expected Portfolio Returns Consider the portfolio weights computed previously. If the individual stocks have the following expected returns, what is the expected return for the portfolio? C: 19.69% KO: 5.25% INTC: 16.65% BP: 18.24% E(RP) = .133(19.69%) + .2(5.25%) + .267(16.65%) + .4(18.24%) = 15.41% Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-10

Portfolio Variance Compute the portfolio return for each state: RP = w1R1 + w2R2 + … + wmRm Compute the expected portfolio return using the same formula as for an individual asset Compute the portfolio variance and standard deviation using the same formulas as for an individual asset Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-11

Example: Portfolio Variance Consider the following information on returns and probabilities: Invest 50% of your money in Asset A State Probability A B Portfolio Boom .4 30% -5% 12.5% Bust .6 -10% 25% 7.5% What are the expected return and standard deviation for each asset? What are the expected return and standard deviation for the portfolio? If A and B are your only choices, what percent are you investing in Asset B? 50% Asset A: E(RA) = .4(30) + .6(-10) = 6% Variance(A) = .4(30-6)2 + .6(-10-6)2 = 384 Std. Dev.(A) = 19.6% Asset B: E(RB) = .4(-5) + .6(25) = 13% Variance(B) = .4(-5-13)2 + .6(25-13)2 = 216 Std. Dev.(B) = 14.7% Portfolio (solutions to portfolio return in each state appear with mouse click after last question) Portfolio return in boom = .5(30) + .5(-5) = 12.5 Portfolio return in bust = .5(-10) + .5(25) = 7.5 Expected return = .4(12.5) + .6(7.5) = 9.5 or Expected return = .5(6) + .5(13) = 9.5 Variance of portfolio = .4(12.5-9.5)2 + .6(7.5-9.5)2 = 6 Standard deviation = 2.45% Note that the variance is NOT equal to .5(384) + .5(216) = 300 and Standard deviation is NOT equal to .5(19.6) + .5(14.7) = 17.17% What would the expected return and standard deviation for the portfolio be if we invested 3/7 of our money in A and 4/7 in B? Portfolio return = 10% and standard deviation = 0 Portfolio variance using covariances: COV(A,B) = .4(30-6)(-5-13) + .6(-10-6)(25-13) = -288 Variance of portfolio = (.5)2(384) + (.5)2(216) + 2(.5)(.5)(-288) = 6 Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-12

Another Example Consider the following information on returns and probabilities: State Probability X Z Boom .25 15% 10% Normal .60 10% 9% Recession .15 5% 10% What are the expected return and standard deviation for a portfolio with an investment of $6,000 in asset X and $4,000 in asset Z? Portfolio return in Boom: .6(15) + .4(10) = 13% Portfolio return in Normal: .6(10) + .4(9) = 9.6% Portfolio return in Recession: .6(5) + .4(10) = 7% Expected return = .25(13) + .6(9.6) + .15(7) = 10.06% Variance = .25(13-10.06)2 + .6(9.6-10.06)2 + .15(7-10.06)2 = 3.6924 Standard deviation = 1.92% Compare to return on X of 10.5% and standard deviation of 3.12% And return on Z of 9.4% and standard deviation of .49% Using covariances: COV(X,Z) = .25(15-10.5)(10-9.4) + .6(10-10.5)(9-9.4) + .15(5-10.5)(10-9.4) = .3 Portfolio variance = (.6*3.12)2 + (.4*.49)2 + 2(.6)(.4)(.3) = 3.6868 Portfolio standard deviation = 1.92% (difference in variance due to rounding) Lecture Tip: Here are a few tips to pass along to students suffering from “statistics overload”: -The distribution is just the picture of all possible outcomes -The mean return is the central point of the distribution -The standard deviation is the average deviation from the mean -Assuming investor rationality (two-parameter utility functions), the mean is a proxy for expected return and the standard deviation is a proxy for total risk. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-13

Expected vs. Unexpected Returns Realized returns are generally not equal to expected returns There is the expected component and the unexpected component At any point in time, the unexpected return can be either positive or negative Over time, the average of the unexpected component is zero Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-14

Systematic Risk Risk factors that affect a large number of assets Also known as non-diversifiable risk or market risk Includes such things as changes in GDP, inflation, interest rates, etc. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-15

Unsystematic Risk Risk factors that affect a limited number of assets Also known as unique risk and asset-specific risk Includes such things as labor strikes, part shortages, etc. Lecture Tip: You can expand the discussion of the difference between systematic and unsystematic risk by using the example of a strike by employees. Students will generally agree that this is unique or unsystematic risk for one company. However, what if the UAW stages the strike against the entire auto industry. Will this action impact other industries or the entire economy? If the answer to this question is yes, then this becomes a systematic risk factor. The important point is that it is not the event that determines whether it is systematic or unsystematic risk; it is the impact of the event. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-16

Diversification Portfolio diversification is the investment in several different asset classes or sectors Diversification is not just holding a lot of assets For example, if you own 50 Internet stocks, you are not diversified However, if you own 50 stocks that span 20 different industries, then you are diversified Video Note: “Portfolio Management” looks at the value of diversification. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-18

The Principle of Diversification Diversification can substantially reduce the variability of returns without an equivalent reduction in expected returns This reduction in risk arises because worse than expected returns from one asset are offset by better than expected returns from another However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot be diversified away and that is the systematic portion A discussion of the potential benefits of international investing may be helpful at this point. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-19

Figure 13.1 Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-20

Total vs. Systematic Risk Consider the following information: Standard Deviation Beta Security C 20% 1.25 Security K 30% 0.95 Which security has more total risk? Which security has more systematic risk? Which security should have the higher expected return? Security K has the higher total risk Security C has the higher systematic risk Security C should have the higher expected return Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-33

Example: Portfolio Betas Consider the previous example with the following four securities Security Weight Beta C .133 2.685 KO .2 0.195 INTC .267 2.161 BP .4 2.434 What is the portfolio beta? .133(2.685) + .2(.195) + .267(2.161) + .4(2.434) = 1.947 Which security has the highest systematic risk? C Which security has the lowest systematic risk? KO Is the systematic risk of the portfolio more or less than the market? more Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved. 13-34