MPU September 2009 2009.09.03.

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Presentation transcript:

MPU September 2009 2009.09.03

Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 4. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 5. Unemployed Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 8. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

Figure 9. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

Figure 10. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

Figure 11. Development of GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 12. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Note. These gaps should not necessarily be interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment of resource utilisation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank