Disruptive Transport Technologies and the Future of Transport in South Africa Prepared by: Riyaaz Ebrahim Department of Civil Engineering, Stellenbosch University Good afternoon. I am Riyaaz Ebrahim and I’m going to be talking about disruptive technologies and whether or not South Africa is ready for technological transportation disruptions.

Disruptive Technologies: Background Earliest known disruption occurred in New York, 1900. Disruptions are needed. Disruptions in transportation occurs through AI and IoT. Before slideshow: A disruptive technology is one that plans to enhance or replace an existing technology. Disruptions in technology are a nation’s way of indicating that it is ready to that next step in moving toward a society based on advanced principles that are fuelled by the need for innovation. Now, slides: New York, explain. - Disruptions in processes are needed for growth, although the risk of failure is always present. Many disruptions have occurred over the years such as VR, AI and blockchain. In terms of transportation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things. These work co-dependently. The Internet of Things refers to connectivity of multiple devices through the internet. In terms of autonomous vehicles, these vehicles use the connectivity of the Internet of Things to update their algorithms based on user-defined data. Research has shown that industries aim to create AI platforms to conduct this data collection and processing, which will produced an improved efficiency on the road network.

IoT Applications in Transportation IoT helps to reduce traffic congestion through smart route mapping. Drivers can share route information on various platforms. Improves fleet management and performance. Car manufacturers are using the IoT to improve driving experience, such as Ford’s Traffic Jam Assist technology. Besides autonomous vehicles, the Internet of Things has had numerous impacts on the transportation industry. Explain all Maybe this slide quick to spend time on following slides? IoT helps to reduce congestion through smart route mapping, such as updates provided via GPS. Driver’s can share information of routes such as delays due to accidents, road closures or other traffic-related incidents. IoT helps to improve the management and performance of vehicle fleets by examining data obtained from the vehicles’ on-board diagnostic ports (ODB ports) to assess various different issues related to the vehicles. Last point

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Another disruptive technology is MaaS. Mobility as a Service consists of a framework of interconnected devices and complex management that produces smart access to information and improved efficiency on the road network. I’m not going to explain much about this because you all already know what Mobility as a Service is, but here is a Figure that shows the different components of a MaaS system, such as e-hailing services and multi-modal transportation solutions.

Transport Disruptions and South Africa In 2014, 55 million passenger trips were made by rail. As of 2014, 21% of people who used public transport travel via rail. 3 million passengers transferred from rail to other modes of public transport. As of 2018, R197 billion backlog for road maintenance. Projected average road network speed of 10 km/h between JHB and Pretoria in 2037. For the implementation of a successful disruption to occur in South Africa, a support structure of a high technological level is required. IoT, MaaS and AI all depend on a strong foundational infrastructure. Go to slide: The first issue is the quality of the rail system in South Africa. Around 55 million people used rail every month in 2009. 3 million of those passengers decided to use taxi services instead, due to the unreliability and lack of safety on trains and at train stations. The majority of people using trains are low-income citizens who now have to fork out more money to use other modes of transport. I myself used rail a few years back and the constant worry is not a nice feeling. This in turn causes people to want to purchase their own personal vehicles, which increases traffic congestion. Point 3 onwards: Another issue is the quality of the road network. It is estimated that the current backlog in maintenance for roads is R197 billion due to a shortage of funds. It is projected that an average road network speed of 10 km/h will be the issue in 2037 between JHB and PTA if traffic congestions continues to grow as it is. This increases travel time tremendously.

Transport Disruptions and South Africa To illustrate the effects of congestion in traffic, the INRIX rankings were assessed for 6 cities in South Africa were assessed. The INRIX ranking analyses the congestion in traffic and mobility trends in 200 cities across 38 countries. Go to Figure: Here we have a graph indicating the INRIX ranking for these cities and the amount of hours users spent stuck in traffic for 2018. Point to graph: Cape Town was ranked as the 28th most congested city of the 200 cities analysed and road users spent an average of 162 hours stuck in traffic. Pretoria was ranked as the 54th most congested city and road users spent an average of 143 hours in traffic.

Is South Africa ready? The current transportation infrastructure has to be improved as well as the safety and reliability of rail throughout the country. Once these are improved, a successful disruption in transportation can occur. So to answer the question “Is South Africa ready for future transport disruptions?” Personally, the answer is no. Once the current transport infrastructure is improved and reliability and safety can be ensured with regards to the rail, only then can a successful disruption in transport occur.

References Automotive Business Review, 2019. South Africa's Road Replacement Cost Insurmountable - Government. [Online] Business Tech, 2019. The cities with the worst traffic in South Africa - and how load shedding has made it so much worse, Lyttelton, Centurion: Business Tech. INRIX, 2019. INRIX. [Online] Venter, I., 2018. Creamer Media's Engineering News. [Online] World Intellectual Property Organisation, 2019. WIPO: Artificial Intelligence, Geneva, Switzerland: WIPO. Cosgrove, C., 2018. IoT Applications in Transportation, s.l.: IoT for all.

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