ITT and SKE Recruitment Mark Crowley mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk May 2019

Review recent TSM targets and subsequent ITT recruitment Objectives Review recent TSM targets and subsequent ITT recruitment Consider patterns in recruitment Review Subject Knowledge Enhancement (SKE) usage Objectives for this presentation

Routes into Teaching – coverage for this presentation University-led Postgraduate (PGCE/PGDE) School-centred ITT (SCITT) School Direct (salaried) School Direct (tuition fee) Teach First (Leadership) Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeships Undergraduate degrees (Integral QTS) Undergraduate opt-in degree (Final year) Now Teach Transition to Teach Troops into Teaching Researchers in Schools (RiS) Assessment Only Future Teaching Scholars Premier Pathways HMC Teacher Training PCET L5 Dip in Ed & Training EYITT Teacher Training routes Clarification about the scope for this presentation. Postgraduate courses for which the DfE have published data. Have approached RiS but unsuccessfully.

Teacher Supply Model https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2018-to-2019 TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 The PG courses make up the bulk of the target ITT numbers, These are contained in the TSM – this is updated annually. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

Teacher Supply Model TSM 2019-20 Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates The model considers wastage rates. This has been highlighted in recent reports such as Wellcome trust. Key findings: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

TSM – Turnover rates & Retention Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates Years of service NQT 7 Years Number of teachers Issues with SWC/Compendium. Not by subject but by hours taught. Year qualified https://department-for-education.shinyapps.io/turnover-and-retention-grids/

TSM – Turnover rates & Retention Secondary Physics This does not represent 1200-1400 Physics NQTs. Instead, the number of NQTs teaching Physics (KS3-5) regardless of their ITT specialism. https://department-for-education.shinyapps.io/turnover-and-retention-grids/

47% 36% 12% 41% ITT target Teacher Supply Model TSM 2019-20 Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates Teaching hours per subject and DfE policies (EBacc) Growth of pupil population and additional teachers needed Net growth by comparing entrants versus leavers Success of ITT routes feeding NQTs into state schools PG Routes into Physics assumed to be Model expects 53% of entrants will be NQTs HEI SD SCITT 47% 36% 12% 41% 82% 84% 71% 77% 87% 76% Change from prior model which expected NQTs form 50% of entrants. However this assumption is applied regardless of the subject ITT target Completion and Employment https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

TSM: Attrition rates Physics Completion and Employment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 81% 82% 74% 79% 87% Attrition rates have changed with each version of the TSM. The current version is based on the four years up to 2015/16 60% 65% 69% Attrition rates included in each iteration of the model have changed – but data is dated. HEI School Direct SCITT https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

Attrition rates TSM 2019-20 Historic completion and employment rates are applied to the NQT need in order back- calculate the ITT target: Subject Target Attrition rates NQTs Entrants 90% 88% 83% 80% 78% 74% Biology 1190 1150 1265 855 790 775 1610 1480 1460 Chemistry Explanation of back-calculation Physics Completion and Employment https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

Recruitment vs Targets Physics Target 1265 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 91% 71% 70% 65% 68% 80% EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT Number of trainees 47% How successful the targets have been met. Note Increase in Phys target for 2019-20 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Recruitment vs Targets Chemistry Target 1152 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 110% 132% 94% 117% 82% 98% 79% Number of trainees Note Increase in Chem target for 2019-20 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Recruitment vs Targets Biology 153% Target 1192 101% 96% 88% 84% 85% 115% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT Number of trainees Recruitment controls have clearly note been applied. Information here about when RC were supposed to be applied. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Consider the impact of hitting target but not the modelled Shortfall in census TSM 2018-19 Has the shortfall in the 2018-19 TSM target by Physics and Chemistry been offset by massive gains in Biology? Consider if the NQT need is still being met : NQTs Subject 1815 830 575 Census Target 1190 1050 1265 Attrition rates Likely Model Consider the impact of hitting target but not the modelled 35%:33%:32% 90% 88% 83% 80% 78% 74% Biology 1310 590 350 850 790 780 Chemistry So even the massive over-recruitment in Biology does not balance out the shortfall in Chem/Phys. Retrograde step to the situation 10 years ago…. Physics Likely NQT 2250 :Model 2420 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teacher-supply-model-2017-to-2018

ITT Census - Science ratio 2010-11 Biology Physics Chemistry Over the last ten years, the ratio of separate sciences initially matched the move to more equitable allocations growing in favour of chemistry and more recently back toward Biology as the dominant subject DfE did not publish data for https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2011-12 Biology Physics Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2012-13 Biology Physics Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2013-14 Biology Physics Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2014-15 Biology Physics Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2015-16 Biology Physics Chemistry Teach First data started to be included in the census but their data have been removed from the following pie-charts. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2016-17 Biology Physics Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2017-18 Biology Physics Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2018-19 Biology Physics Chemistry What is the likely ratio of science numbers for 2019-20 from UCAS data? https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Recruitment Placed+ Conditional

Expect a drop off with conditions not being met Recruitment Placed+ Conditional Generic Expect a drop off with conditions not being met 1000 900 800 700 Conditional 600 Number of applicants 500 400 Holding offer Placed 300 Explaining the following charts 200 100 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep End of cycle https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

Recruitment 2015-19 Placed+ Conditional Biology 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2017-18 UCAS data drop Number of applicants 2015-16 UCAS cycles have started as early as 9th Oct and as late as 26th Oct 2016-17 2018-19 Change from publication date into day within recruitment cycle. Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census

Biology Recruitment 2015-19 *4th May 18 26th April 17 55 75 4th May 16 Placed+ Conditional Biology 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Day 190 *4th May 18 26th April 17 Placed 55 Conditional Firm 75 4th May 16 90 520 825 835 17th April 19 40 875 2017-18 Number of applicants 2015-16 2016-17 2018-19 Days since UCAS opened 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

Chemistry Recruitment 2015-19 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Placed+ Conditional Chemistry 1200 UCAS data drop Number of applicants 2015-16 1000 2016-17 2017-18 800 600 400 2018-19 200 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census

Chemistry Recruitment 2015-19 *4th May 18 26th April 17 55 20 Placed+ Conditional Chemistry 1200 Day 190 *4th May 18 26th April 17 Placed 55 Conditional Firm 20 4th May 16 60 400 350 560 17th April 19 15 360 Number of applicants 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2018-19 1000 800 600 400 200 Days since UCAS opened 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

Physics Recruitment 2015-19 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Number of 1000 900 UCAS data drop Number of applicants 2015-16 800 2016-17 700 600 2017-18 500 400 300 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept EoC Census 200 2018-19 100

Physics Recruitment 2015-19 *4th May 18 26th April 17 20 15 4th May 16 1000 Day 190 *4th May 18 26th April 17 Placed 20 Conditional Firm 15 4th May 16 40 310 260 395 17th April 19 10 225 900 Number of applicants Number of applicants 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Days since UCAS opened 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

Physics Recruitment 2015-19 120 HEI 100 SD (fee) 80 60 SCITT 40 20 20 40 60 80 100 120 HEI SD (fee) SCITT SD (sal) Physics 1000 900 Number of applicants Number of applicants 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 2018-19 100 Days since UCAS opened 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

ITT Census - Science ratio 2018-19 Biology Physics Chemistry What is the likely ratio of science numbers for 2019-20 from UCAS data? https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census - Science ratio 2019-20 Biology Physics Chemistry *Based on current UCAS data Are particular ITT routes more successful than others at recruitment? https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census – numbers by route Physics 100 200 300 400 500 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First Number in Nov census https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census – proportions by route Physics UCAS for 2019-20 currently shows approximately: HEI 46% SCITT 21% SD Fee 30% SD Sal 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First Proportion in Nov census https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census – number by route Biology 200 400 600 800 1000 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First Number in Nov census https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census – proportions by route Biology UCAS for 2019-20 currently shows approximately: HEI 53% SCITT 14% SD Fee 31% SD Sal 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First Proportion in Nov census https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census – numbers by route Chemistry 100 200 300 400 500 600 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First Number in Nov census https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

ITT Census – proportions by route Chemistry UCAS for 2019-20 currently shows approximately: HEI 49% SCITT 17% SD Fee 32% SD Sal 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First Proportion in Nov census https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

Subject Knowledge Enhancement April 2018

SKE – recent guide 10. SKE funding is … available for courses of 8 weeks … for those applying to PE with EBacc ITT courses. 20. PG ITT courses… the completion of a SKE course must be a specific condition of the conditional ITT offer. 21. Teach First candidates. Teach First participants are eligible for SKE funding, providing they meet the criteria set by Teach First. 22. UG courses. Programme and bursary funding is available for eligible participants on designated UG courses in secondary maths and physics that lead to QTS (including opt-in). For PE with EBacc, the ‘with’ subject must be one where SKE funding is available. All places on PE with Ebacc ITT courses must also be agreed in advance with the ITT allocations team.

SKE - courses TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4 TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

SKE Directory Rather than published as an excel spreadsheet, provided by the DfE as a webpage. What do the expert advisers on Freephone 0800 389 2500 or via our online chat service between 8am and 8pm, Monday to Friday.  https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/subject-knowledge-enhancement-course-directory/subject-knowledge-enhancement-ske-course-directory

Teachers Analysis Compendium https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4 TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

SKE uptake – overall figures ITT 2017-18 Data yet to be released for SKE 2017-18 – Paul Steele from DfE has responded to recent email to agree to provide this shortly. Subject SKE 16-17 ITT 17-18 SKE/ITT Biology 343 327 332 1025 875 715 33% 37% 46% Chemistry Table 1.5: Subject Knowledge Enhancement by subject 2017/181       ITT year: 2017/18             Coverage: England                           SKE Subject Total SKE Trainees Total ITT Trainees in Census for SKE Subjects Proportion of all ITT trainees taking SKE       Biology 343 1,025 33%       Chemistry 327 875 37%       Classics 8 60 13%       Computing 251 475 53%       Design & Technology 82 305 27%       English 288 2,175 13%       Geography 367 1,225 30%       Mathematics 1,148 2,450 47%       Modern Foreign Languages 775 1,405 55%       Physics 332 720 46%       Total 3,921 10,715 37%                                                 Note: ITT is initial teacher training           1 Total in Census – Table 1: Provisional data on postgraduate ITT new entrants (including forecast new entrants) and training places by subject, Initial teacher training: trainee number census - 2017 to 2018 Physics https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

SKE uptake – by length of course 66% 400 60% 55% 350 300 250 Short 8-12 Number of partticipants 200 150 Med 16-20 100 Big four across the sciences are: VIDLEARN (100) Bradford College*(100) University of Sussex (100) TES Institute (340) About 66% of all science SKE. 50 Long 24+ Biology Physics Chemistry

Marketing SKE The Department (for Education) has increased marketing investment; intensified marketing activities; introduced more frequent bursts of TV advertising; and added new marketing channels. TV & Video, Social Media and paid Search have been the strongest drivers of website sessions in the latest period; with paid Search and Social Media also being the most cost-effective marketing drivers.

Any questions? Mark Crowley Senior Lecturer in Science Education Nottingham Trent University mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk +(44) 115 848 8064 Remember to register with the Free National Vacancy Service for teachers and schools: www.teachvac.co.uk http://www4.ntu.ac.uk/edu/teacher_training/