FACTORING EXTERNAL COSTS INTO POLICY AND INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING

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Presentation transcript:

FACTORING EXTERNAL COSTS INTO POLICY AND INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING Arp, R. and Keen, S. Presented at the SATC 8 July 2019

“Internalising the external cost”

South Africa is no exception 90% 95% Our addiction to fossil fuels is unsustainable. South Africa is no exception

FACTORING EXTERNAL COSTS INTO POLICY AND INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING External costs = second-hand impacts Account for external costs Make sustainable decisions How much does electricity actually cost? How much does transport actually cost? What carbon price to combat climate change?

Transport: SA studies Accidents = = 23.5 cents/t.km Emissions = Congestion = Swarts et al. (2012) & Jorgensen (2009) R140/t JHB → Durban

Transport: International studies R6.9/t.km R8.45/t.km R1.97/t.km R60.29/t.km Accidents = Air pollution = Emissions = Congestion = Korzhenevych et al. (2014) & ECORYS (2004)

R46 470/t SAVING Transport: International studies = R77/t.km R46 500/t JHB → Durban 5 cents /t.km = R30/t JHB → Durban

Electricity Kusile Power Plant = R1.5 – R3.3 trillion Air pollution and GHG emissions? R750 billion and R380 billion Nkambule and Blignaut (2017)

Electricity Air pollution + GHG emissions from the rest? = 5cents/kWh = R200 000/hour during stage 4 load shedding Price increase of 30% - 181% Thopil (2013) & Thopil and Pouris (2015)

Carbon price R120/tCO2e

Carbon price to achieve 2⁰C? World Energy Outlook 2015 R238.15/tCO2e High level commission on carbon prices 2017 R505.63/tCO2e IPCC 1.5⁰C Report 2018 R826.74/tCO2e IPCC 1.5⁰C report 2018 (Fifita, et al., 2018); High level commission on carbon prices 2017 (CPLC, 2017); World Energy Outlook 2015 (IEA, 2015)