Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 14 February 23, 2006 Mexican Americans/Latinos and State/Local Elections, Particularly in California Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 14 February 23, 2006

Exam – March 2, 2006 My goals Format? Delivery mechanism? Synthesize various components of the class Demonstrate a mastery of readings and class discussions Format? Delivery mechanism?

Mexican Americans and National Elections From Last Time Mexican Americans and National Elections

2008 in Prospect An open race A closely divided national electorate Increased sophistication in outreach to non-regular voters Seen in Ohio and Florida in 2004 Increased sophistication of the symbolic appeal Richardson candidacy may generate Mexican American excitement (though I doubt it)

But, Democrats Republicans Nominee will be at a financial disadvantage, so will focus on likely voters Few Mexican American/Latino advisors appointed to current campaigns Republicans Field not naturally Mexican American-sensitive Bush won’t alienate core Republican constituencies, so can’t support Mexican American policy outreach Immigration reform debate will alienate Mexican Americans

2008 and Mexican Americans What You Should Watch Democrats Richardson candidacy – does he run? does anyone notice? Ordering of primaries Vice presidential field Republicans Does primary race focus on appeals to the moral conservatives? Does decline in Bush popularity continue? Beyond symbolism? Latino organizations Mobilization strategies

In Sum Ion national politics, the rhetoric is ahead of the reality; 2004 did not change the dynamic Mobilization is the most important change that could occur to close the symbolism-influence gap, But mobilization is not the concern of candidates or Latino leaders My best estimate – and this is contested – is that Bush didn’t get 40 percent of the 2004 Latino vote

Mexican Americans/Latinos and State and Local Politics Today’s Discussion Mexican Americans/Latinos and State and Local Politics

Some General Propositions Contradiction Local politics more likely to engage non-participating Mexican Americans to electoral participation Participation in (and research on) national elections much higher So, local politics is harder to summarize, but ultimately key to Mexican American empowerment

Levels of Latino Officeholding

Why Are Campaigns for Local Office Important? They are: Close to voters and potential voters More likely to raise relevant issues and to package the issue in a more easy understood way The victors are: More likely to be accessible to members of the community Act as role models Mobilize new participants to participation Developing the skills they will need to move on to higher office

Mexican Americans/Latinos and State Politics 2003 Gubernatorial California Recall as Case Study

The Roots of the 2003 Recall 2002 Governor’s Race Davis (D) 47% Simon (R) 42% Why the narrow margin? Davis didn’t excite the Democratic base Latent resentment about the electricity crisis and fear of the state budget deficit Central to low turnout among the Democratic base was lower than expected turnout among Mexican Americans

The Circus Quick collection of signatures, perhaps 2 million The short window and minimal requirements to get on the ballot 200 candidates … 300 candidates … 135 who qualified He’s in, he’s out, he’s on Leno and in And Lt. Governor Bustamante declares also The federal courts delay the election (and are reversed) Equal protection claim and punch card ballots

One Thing Most Can Agree On – It Was a Circus Source: Pew Hispanic Center/TRPI poll

Early Read – Circus Advantaged Mexican Americans Bustamante Didn’t have to have a Democratic primary against White Democrats … he was the only major Democrat in the race He had money from an earlier campaign Large number of candidates meant that many thought a winning plurality would be 25-35 percent More of a battle on the right than the left

What Happened? Bustamante didn’t catch fire in the Democratic base An insider in a “throw the bums out” election Not ready for prime time Ethnical questions about past fundraising Arnold Schwarzenegger Used popular mood and multiple candidates to avoid issue discussion Republicans hungry for victory (willing to overlook Schwarzenegger’s moderate views on social issues) Star power in a state obsessed with stars

Little Effort to Win Mexican American Votes Bustamante took them for granted Davis relied on the unions to do voter mobilization (to oppose recall) Schwarzenegger tried to connect symbolically, but undercut this message by staffing his campaign with Pete Wilson aides Other candidates did no Latino outreach The recall race like most state/national campaigns

For Next Time Prepare for the Midterm Questions on the readings: What policy and organizational changes would be necessary to move a higher share of the citizenship-eligible Mexican immigrant population toward naturalization? How would the Mexican American electorate change if more Mexican Americans naturalized?