Dan McKenzie ORD Western Ecology Division Corvallis, Oregon Sept. 10, 2004 Dan McKenzie ORD Western Ecology Division Corvallis, Oregon Sept. 10, 2004 Increasing the Role of Statistic in Water Quality Management Decisions

Outline Clean Water Act Requirements Past – Before EMAP Present – Transition (Implementation) Future – Opportunities (Needs)

Clean Water Act (CWA) Objective: restore and maintain the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Nations waters Section 303(c) – State Water Quality Standards, Designated Uses & Criteria Section 305(b) – Report Condition of Nations waters Section 303(d) – List of Impaired waters and Restoration Plans

Past CWA Reports EPA Reports to Congress (2 yrs) 305(b): State Data – Inconsistent (Designated Uses, Criteria, Indicators, Methods) 303(d): States Assessed Waters (Selected Sites, Listing Criteria) All Reviews Identified Major Shortcomings

Florida – Summary The state has approximately 50,000 miles of streams, 3,000 square miles of lakes, and 4,000 square miles of estuaries. For this report, water quality was summarized by determining the degree of attainment for designated use for the states different water body types. FDEP assessed 9,016 miles of rivers and streams, 1,302,976 acres of lakes, and 3,658 square miles of estuaries. Of the assessed miles, 29 percent of total river miles, 20 percent of total lake areas, and 69 percent of total estuarine areas clearly attain their designated use (Figure 1).

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) Estimate Current Status, Trends and Changes – Regional Basis – Known Confidence Estimate Geographic Coverage and Extent – Known Confidence Seek Associations – Indicators of Stresses and Condition Statistical Summaries & Assessments

EMAPs Original Guiding Figure Nominal Unknown Acidity Toxicity Eutrophication Habitat Status & Association Questions Extent of Resource (number, length, area) Status Condition Good Fair Poor Associations

Valleys North-Central Appalachians Ridge and Blue Ridge Geographic Targeting Where does Fish IBI suggest problems? Western Appalachians (Insufficient Data)

Relative Ranking of Stressors Proportion of Stream Length (Insufficient Data) Good Fair Poor Fish Index of Biotic Integrity EMAP Probability Survey Example Results (complex) 4

2002 State Report Included: Basin - % Stream Impairment <25% >74 No Est

CWA 305(b) -- Status States Implementing Probability Surveys Streams (30+ States) Estuaries (Coastal States) EPA Office of Water Probability Survey or Census Integration of 305(b) and 303(d) Conducting National Stream Survey Aquatic Resources Monitoring

Target Population Condition & Stressors (status) Where do I need to do follow up monitoring? (2) Estimated Status [Probabilities] Spatially Explicit Estimation Aggregation Classification Modeling 305(b) Report NAS planning list 303(d) Assessment Process (1) EMAP Design (probability survey) (3) Targeted Surveys waterbody attaining some uses, no threatened uses waterbody has high probability of impairment Attainment-Impairment Insufficient, No Information waterbody attaining all uses Integrated Monitoring – Part 1 Found Sites Impaired waterbody

Example: Extending EMAP Status Estimated IBI Condition at Reach Scale Good Fair Poor

Extending EMAP Associations Stressors Associated with IBI Status at Reach Scale Nominal Unknown Acidity Toxicity Eutrophication Riparian Habitat

Potential Areas for Target Surveys High Prob. Non-Impairment Riparian Habitat Associations Acidic Associations Eutrophication Associations Toxicity & Eutrophication Associations

Potential Target Survey Design Target Population: Stream Reaches within Area Associated with Acidic Stressors Survey Design: Weighted by Estimated IBI Condition (Good, Fair, Poor)

waterbody attaining some uses, no threatened uses (3) Targeted Surveys Results: Combining intensified survey designs, gradient sampling, site-specific designs as appropriate Waterbody impairment confirmed 303(d) List TMDL development 303(d) Assessment Process Management Action Is there an existing TMDL, or impairment not caused by pollutant? Other Plans Expected to Achieve Attainment? (4) Probability survey designs to establish attainment How to delist? Attainment-Impairment waterbody attaining all uses Integrated Monitoring – Part 2 ?

Key Concepts & Elements 303(d) Requires Site Scale Information Observations, Estimates, Forecasts Objective Basis to Categorize all Waters, Assign Priorities Known Confidence – Uncertainty Sequential Processes

Information sources Probability Survey Results Existing Non-Probability Stations Fixed Station (Intensive, Few Sites) Traditional Monitoring Program (Extensive, Few Observations) Special Study & Research Areas Complete Coverage (LuLc, etc.)

Potential Strategies Sequential Estimation Approaches (WQ, Stressors, IBI) Endpoint Estimation (IBI) Estimate Probability of Condition (Good, Fair, Poor)

Some Challenges Cause and Effect Relationships What to Fix/Change to Restore or Protect Assignment of Sources Impairment Decisions (10% Obs. Exceed Criteria) De-Listing Criteria

Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Original Focus: Point Sources Issues Shifted to Non-Point Sources Multiple Sources & Stressors ~10,000 TMDLs Completed Substantial Workload Implementation, Effectiveness (?)

FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF A STREAM ECOSYSTEM WATER TABLE WATER TABLE ATMOSPHERE LAND USE STREAM USE RIPARIAN Producer: woody plants 1° Consumer: birds 2° Consumer: birds Decomposers Producer: woody plants 1° Consumer: birds 2° Consumer: birds Decomposers BENTHIC Producer: algae 1° Consumer: benthos 2° Consumer: benthos, herptiles, fish Decomposers: microbes Producer: algae 1° Consumer: benthos 2° Consumer: benthos, herptiles, fish Decomposers: microbes WATER COLUMN Producer: macrophytes 1° Consumer: fish 2° Consumers: herptiles, fish Decomposers Producer: macrophytes 1° Consumer: fish 2° Consumers: herptiles, fish Decomposers Stressor Sources Movement of Materials RELEVANCE TO ECOLOGICAL FUNCTION

CONCEPTUAL MODEL: WADEABLE STREAMS HUMAN USES Consumption Waste Receptor Recreation/Aestethics Harvesting HUMAN USES Consumption Waste Receptor Recreation/Aestethics Harvesting HABITAT INTEGRITY HABITAT INTEGRITY BIOTIC INTEGRITY BIOTIC INTEGRITY ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Forestry Practices Population Density Road Density Channelization Dams ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Forestry Practices Population Density Road Density Channelization Dams ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS Angling Pressure Stocking Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Riparian Alterations Invasion of non-native spp. ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS Angling Pressure Stocking Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Riparian Alterations Invasion of non-native spp. ABIOTIC CHARACTERISTICS BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY WATER QUALITY Temperature Turbidity Nutrients Organic/inorganic Chemicals Toxics pH WATER QUALITY Temperature Turbidity Nutrients Organic/inorganic Chemicals Toxics pH HABITAT QUALITY Substrate type Depth and Velocity Volume Flow regime Habitat heterogeneity Instream Cover HABITAT QUALITY Substrate type Depth and Velocity Volume Flow regime Habitat heterogeneity Instream Cover RELEVANCE TO ECOLOGICAL FUNCTION

CONCEPTUAL RELATIONSHIP: STRESSORS vs. RICHNESS, ABUNDANCE, AND HABITAT METRICS Stressor SO 4 NO 3 Population Roads Livestock Row Crops Logging Dams Population Roads Livestock Row Crops Logging Dams Chemicals Ichthyocides Stocking Chemicals Ichthyocides Stocking pH Metals Nutrients Exposure Measurements Riparian Modifications Turbidity, Sedimentation Response Metrics Temp O 2 Instream Fish Cover Family, Spp. Richness Long-lived spp. Non-indigenous spp. Sensitive spp. Benthic spp. Abundance Water Column spp. Tolerant spp. RELEVANCE TO ECOLOGICAL FUNCTION

Opportunities Incorporation of Conceptual Model Information Objective Evidence on Causes – Sources Multiple Stressors Epidemiological Tools? Forecast Restoration – Effort/Change, Time Sequences

Summary Major Improvements Occurring Significant Short Term Contributions Possible Longer Term Opportunities Require Innovation and Creativity Statistical Foundation Critical