Biomass and Soil Moisture simulation and assimilation over Hungary

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Biomass and Soil Moisture simulation and assimilation over Hungary Helga Tóth, Balázs Szintai and László Kullmann Hungarian Meteorologial Service Email: toth.h@met.hu

Outline ImagineS project (2012-2016) LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System) SURFEX model Data assimilation: Simplified Extended Kalman Filter Validation 1D (against in-situ measurements from Hegyhátsál) 2D (against satellite data) Agricultural utilization EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

ImagineS Implementation of Multi-scale Agricultural Indicators Exploiting Sentinels EU-FP7 project: http://fp7-imagines.eu Period: 40 month (Nov. 2012. – Febr. 2016. ) 8 Institutions (Fr, Sp, Be, UK, Hu), From this 2 SME Aims: Improve the retrieval of basic biophysical variables coming from PROBA-V and LandSat for Copernicus Global Land Service. Assimilation of these satellite data into Surface model  monitoring of the evolution of the vegetation and the soil. Demonstrate the added value of this products for the community of users EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

LDAS in Hungary SURFEX (SURface Externalisée) 7.3 Each gridbox is represented by 4 surface types: Nature, Lake, Town Sea -> Tiles Nature tile is separated 12 patches (grassland, C3, C4 plants , deciduous tree …. etc) In nature tile the interaction between the Soil, Atmosphere and Biosphere is described with ISBA + photosynthesis model - > ISBA-A-gs (3 layers Force-Restore scheme) Prognostic eq.-s for T, w + diffusion + drainage ECOCLIMAP II Source: http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/surfex/spip.php?rubrique8 EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Run with offline mode -> no influence to the atmosphere Surfex was run over Hungary with 8 x 8 km resolution, 24 h forecast with 6 h outputs freq. Atmospheric forcings come from ALADIN NWP model (air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation) + LandSAF long and short wave radiation Run with offline mode -> no influence to the atmosphere OUTPUTS: LAI (Leaf Area Index) WG2 (Volumetric soil moisture content) GPP (Gross Primary Product), NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange) ETR (Evapotranspiration), LE (Latent Heat Flux) VALIDATION: 1D (against in situ measurements of Hegyhátsál) 2D (against satellite) agricultural utilization: simm. biomass vs. yield statistics (National measurements, WOFOST crop model) EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Data assimilation in SURFEX Improve the accuracy of initial fields: LAI and Soil Moisture satellite obs. are assimilated LAI: SPOT-VEG 1km res. 10 days samping. SWI (Soil Water Index): MetOp. ASCAT 10 km res. 1 day sampling. SSM=SWI*(wmax-wmin)+wmin Assimilation technique: Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) Xa = Xf + K (yo – H (xf)) where: x is the model state vector (a means analysis, f means forecast), y is the observation vector, H is the non-linear observation operator, K is the Kalman gain. EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Model runs Surfex Openloop run for 2008-2013 Surfex Assimilation run for 2008-2013 Atmospheric forcings Surfex ISBA-A-gs Active biomass developing, fluxes, prognostic variables Atmospheric forcings SWI, LAI satellite measurements Surfex ISBA-A-gs Active biomass developing, fluxes, prognostic variables EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

LAI Results (2D) 2012 (dry) 2010 (wet) Differences OP SAT ASS Apr May Juni July Aug Sept. EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Statistics Low correlation for OL runs at every spring, early summer period EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Results (1D) In-situ measurements of Hegyhátsál. Data are available from two levels: 3 m height over a grassland area (valid for only the grassland patch): -LAI (weekly) -Soil Moisture (daily) (derived from 10-30 cm depth) -Carbon fluxes: GPP, Reco and NEE (daily) -Water flux: Latent Heat (LE) (daily) 82 m height (valid for the whole grid-point): -Carbon fluxes: GPP and NEE (daily) -Water flux: LE (daily) Satellite measurements (red points) are assimilated in LDAS, while the in-situ obs. very different from the sat. EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Crop estimation Simulated C3 BIOMASS vs. measured yield and vs. WOFOST for 2008-2013 Good agreement between LDAS BIOMASS and yield Relative anomaly maps ((sim-obs)/obs) for all counties in Hungary: huge overestimation for Openloop EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015

Plans Assimilation of PROBA-V LAI for 2014-2015 Mini workshop for end-users Drought indicators (SWI and LAI anomalies ) EMS & ECAM, Sofia, 7-11 September, 2015