NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Promoting Successful Transitions for Youth with Serious Mental Health Conditions Findings from the National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2) Mary Wagner, Ph.D. Lynn Newman, Ed.D. Webinar sponsored by the Transitions Research and Training Center, University of Massachusetts Medical School Worcester, MA May 14, 2014 LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Today’s Agenda Provide a national picture of youth who received special education services in high school in the category of emotional disturbance regarding: Post-high school employment Participation in postsecondary education Longitudinal patterns of productive engagement in employment and/or postsecondary education 6 years post high school Factors related to an increased likelihood of employment and postsecondary education up to 8 years after high school, and productive engagement 4 years after high school

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner NLTS2 overview Stratified random sample Nationally representative sample of 500 LEAs and 40 special schools, stratified by: Geographic region Enrollment size District wealth 11,280 students receiving special education services 1,000 students in ED category Focused on Youth, ages 13 to 16 at start of study Study years 2001-2011 Generalizes to All disability categories, each age cohort Longitudinal 5 waves of data collection over 9 years Analyses reported here have been partially funded with federal funds from the U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, under grant number R324A100025 and through a NIDRR- and SAMHSA-funded subgrant from the University of Massachusetts, Worcester. The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the view or policies of the U.S. Department of Education, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. government. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Data sources NLTS2 Parent telephone interview (Wave 1, 2001) Parent and youth telephone interview/survey (Waves 2-5, 2003-2009) Surveys of school staff (2002 and 2004) Direct assessments of academic achievement (Woodcock-Johnson III, 2002 and 2004) High school transcripts (2002 through 2009) NLTS comparison (comparable sample and data items from1985) LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Characteristics of high school students with ED NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Characteristics of high school students with ED 77% male 61% white, 25% African American, 10% Hispanic 49% lived in two-parent household 60% of heads of households with high school degree or less 44% with incomes < $25,000; 30% in poverty Parent-reported secondary disabilities: 63% ADD/ADHD; 30% learning disability; 20% “other” 46% take medication to affect behavior, mood, or emotions ED more likely to be male than any other disability category –general pop = 50.8, Disability = 65.8% p < .001 Least likely to live with 2 parents 48.7% vs. 61.4% all dis. p < .001 46% take meds, compared with 18.5% of all disabilities p < .001 LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

When youth with ED left high school NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner When youth with ED left high school 58% had a goal of obtaining competitive employment. 24% had any school contacts made with potential employers and 29% had contacts made with job placement agencies. 44% had a goal of attending a 2- or 4-year college or vocational/technical/business school or program. 18% had any school contacts made with representatives of such schools/program. 44% had not completed their high school program. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Employment After High School NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Employment After High School LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Employment of young adults with ED up to 8 years out of high school NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Employment of young adults with ED up to 8 years out of high school **p < .01; *** p < .001 LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Employment of young adults with ED by time out of high school NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Employment of young adults with ED by time out of high school *** p < .001 NOTE: Analyses include young adults with ED out of high school up to 8 years. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Outcomes assessed Achieving full time employment In the first 2 years after high school 2 up to 8 years after high school Hypothesizing that interventions in high school will have the greatest impact in the early post-high school years

What promotes early employment after high school? NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner What promotes early employment after high school? Tested the effects of Transition planning activities (e.g., contacting potential employers, youth had leadership role) Career/technical education course-taking Any CTE courses in general education setting A concentration of CTE courses in a general education setting (4 or more credits earned in an occupationally-specific area). Post-high school goals Employment-related high school services (e.g., job search instruction) Having a job in high school Receiving behavioral/mental health services High school graduation LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Methods Propensity scoring methods strive to create balance on observed covariates between treatment and comparison groups using statistical methods instead of randomization. Baseline equivalence tests assess how well balanced adjusted treatment and comparison groups are. Multiple imputation was used on missing covariates, but not on intervention or outcome variables. Results are the average population effect of treatment on the treated (PTT), not the analysis sample.

Predicting employment outcomes NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Predicting employment outcomes Used propensity score modeling techniques to create comparison groups statistically similar on: Demographics—age, gender, mother’s education, household income, race/ethnicity, two-parent household Disability—diagnosed with ADD/ADHD Scores on scales measuring skills related to cognitive functioning, social assertion, self-control, social cooperation Scores on scale of family support for education at home and family involvement at school Experiences during school—GPA, number of absences, ever arrested, ever held back a grade, number of school changes LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Effects on full-time employment of providing transition planning instruction Years out of high school Odds Ratio Up to 2 years post high school 0.30 2 up to 8 years post high school 0.61 Any time since leaving high school 0.21** Reminder, highest dropout rate of all categories Youth received transition planning instruction in high school = 78.4% ** p < .01 LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Any General Education CTE Concentration* of Gen Ed CTE Effects on full-time employment of any general education CTE and CTE concentration Odds Ratios Any General Education CTE Concentration* of Gen Ed CTE Up to 2 years post high school 1.95 4.07** 2 up to 8 years post high school 2.03 1.80 Any time since leaving high school 2.49* 4.04* CTE = Career and technical education Concentration = earning 4 or more credits in an occupationally specific CTE subject *p < .05; ** p < .01

CTE enrollment of youth with ED NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner CTE enrollment of youth with ED NOTE: Analyses include young adults with disabilities out of high school up to 8 years. Young adults who had enrolled in more than one type of postsecondary school were included in each type of school they had attended. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), high school transcripts. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Effects of HS graduation on full-time employment NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Effects of HS graduation on full-time employment Years out of high school Odds Ratio Up to 2 years post high school 0.40* 2 up to 8 years post high school 1.36 Any time since leaving high school 0.86 Reminder, highest dropout rate of all categories High school graduation rate for youth with ED = 74.2%. * p < .05 LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Postsecondary School Enrollment NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Postsecondary School Enrollment LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Postsecondary school enrollment of young adults with ED up to 8 years post-high-school Ever enrolled in: NOTE: Young adults who had enrolled in more than one type of postsecondary school were included in each type of school they had attended. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Waves 2-5 parent interviews and youth interviews/surveys, 2003-2009; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1998 (NLSY 97), 2005 youth survey. Responses for 21- to 25-year-olds. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Postsecondary school completion at the time of final interview/survey NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Postsecondary school completion at the time of final interview/survey Earned degree or completed program at: FIX TO ADD DHH YOUNG ADULTS SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 2 - 5 parent interviews and youth interviews/surveys, 2003 - 2009. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

What promotes postsecondary school enrollment for young adults with ED? Tested the effects of Course taking Behavioral/mental health services Learning strategies Transition planning activities Post-high school goals Youth expectations Parent involvement Parent expectations Graduation status

Effects of course taking and performance on postsecondary enrollment: 2 or 4 year college OR CTE school OR General education academic credits accounted for higher than mean proportion of credits 4.10* General education CTE credits accounted for higher than mean proportion of credits Occupationally-specific concentration of general education CTE courses GPA in academic courses 4.45*** * p < .05; *** p < .001; Empty cell = No significant relationship; OR = odds ratio; CTE = Career and Technical Education.

Average number of credits earned in high school, by course type NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Average number of credits earned in high school, by course type Average number of credits earned: *** p < .001. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), high school transcripts; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), High School Transcript Study. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Grade performance *** p < .001. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), high school transcripts; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), High School Transcript Study. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Effects of transition planning experiences on postsecondary enrollment: 2 or 4 year college OR CTE school OR Student took leadership role during transition planning meeting 4.45* Postsecondary school representative attended transition planning meeting 28.97*** *p < .05; *** p < .001; Empty cell = No significant relationship; ; OR = odds ratio; CTE = Career and Technical Education

Student participation in transition planning meetings by youth with ED Role in meeting of students who attended: Percent SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 1 student’s school program survey, 2002.

Contacts with postsecondary schools in transition planning for youth with ED Percent SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 1 student’s school program survey, 2002.

Effects of goals and expectations on postsecondary enrollment: 2 or 4 year college OR CTE school OR Attending a 2- or 4-year college is a primary goal on transition plan 5.78** Attending a CTE school is a primary goal on transition plan Youth expects to attend postsecondary school 7.66*** 2.92** Parent expects youth will attend postsecondary school 3.63** **p < .01; *** p < .001; Empty cell = No significant relationship; ; OR = odds ratio; CTE = Career and Technical Education.

Transition plan goals of youth with ED NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Transition plan goals of youth with ED Primary transition goal: SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 1 student’s school program survey, 2002. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Youth expectations Expects to attend postsecondary school SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 1 interview/survey. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Parent expectations for youth with ED NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Parent expectations for youth with ED Expects student will attend postsecondary school SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 1 interview/survey. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Effects of parent involvement on postsecondary enrollment: 2 or 4 year college OR CTE school OR Parent involvement in school activities is above the mean 1.84* Parent participated in support groups for families of students with disabilities 2.32* * p < .05; Empty cell = No significant relationship; ; OR = odds ratio; CTE = Career and Technical Education.

Involvement of parents of youth with ED NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Involvement of parents of youth with ED Participated in school-based activities: SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Special Education Research, National Longitudinal Transition Study-2 (NLTS2), Wave 1 interview/survey. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Effects of high school completion on postsecondary enrollment High school completion status 2 or 4 year college OR CTE school OR Completed high school 2.98*** Comparing NLTS (1987) and NLTS2 (2001), the high school completion rate of students with ED had increased 16 percentage points. Up to 8 years post high school, 74% of young adults with ED had completed high school. *** p < .001; Empty cell = No significant relationship; ; OR = odds ratio; CTE = Career and Technical Education.

Putting It all Together: Engagement Over Time NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Putting It all Together: Engagement Over Time LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Going the next step The most common post-high school experience of youth with ED combines employment and postsecondary education participation. The combinations fluctuate over time. Examining the patterns of engagement in these activities over time paints a more complete picture of youth experiences than most outcome-oriented research can provide. NLTS2 data support examining these patterns over a 6-year period for young adults with three waves of data after leaving high school. LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Patterns of engagement NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Patterns of engagement Engagement is participating after high school in: Full-time paid employment, Part-time paid employment, and/or Any form of postsecondary education Calculated six combinations of engagement at each of three time periods after high school: Full-time job, in school Full time job, not in school Part-time job, in school Part-time job, not in school Not employed, in school Not employed, not in school LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Patterns of engagement by time out of high school Up to 2 years 2 up to 4 years > 4 years No work, no school 40.9% 20.6% 19.9% No work, in school 11.9% 17.4% 19.4% Part-time work, no school 15.8% 7.4% 8.3% Full-time work, no school 16.8% 22.8% 22.0% Part-time work, in school 8.7% 11.7% 9.6% Full-time work, in school 5.9% 20.1% 20.7%

Patterns of engagementover time NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Patterns of engagementover time Combined patterns of engagement over time to form three sequences of engagement: Fully or primarily disengaged—no engagement at 2 or 3 time points, e.g.: No work, no school; No work, no school; No work, no school No work, no school; PT work, in school; No work, no school Primarily engaged at 2 times points, e.g.: No work, no school; PT work, in school; PT work, no school PT work, in school; PT work, no school; No work, no school Steadily engaged over time—evidence of work and/or school at all 3 time points, e.g.: FT work, no school; PT work, in school; PT work, no school No work, in school; No work, in school; FT work, no school LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Prevalence of three patterns of engagement over 6 years post high school LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Fully/primarily disengaged Demographic factors associated with disengagement and steady engagement Odds Ratios Demographics Fully/primarily disengaged Steadily engaged Male Age Mother’s education level 0.13** +2.94* White or Asian race/ethnicity 7.43* -0.27* Household income > $50,000 +5.17* * p < .05, ** p < .01. Empty cell = No significant relationship

Experiences associated with disengagement and steady engagement Fully/primarily disengaged Steadily engaged Graduated from high school on time -0.04** +22.9*** Had a paid job in high school Had been arrested in high school ** p < .01; *** p < .001; Empty cell = No significant relationship.

Other factors associated with disengagement and steady engagement Experiences Fully/primarily disengaged Steadily engaged Youth’s social skills scale score -0.65** +1.34* Level of family support for education at home * p < .05, ** p < .01; Empty cell = No significant relationship.

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Taking the next step Goal: Identify school practices and interventions during high school that protect against disengagement and/or promote engagement using propensity score modeling Obstacle: Too few youth with 3 waves of data to identify “statistical twins” needed for this analysis technique Solution: Redefine patterns to require two waves of data—i.e., what is the pattern of engagement/ disengagement over the first 4 post-high school years? LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Prevalence of patterns of engagement over 4 years after high school NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Prevalence of patterns of engagement over 4 years after high school LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

Association between CTE course taking and engagement Odds Ratios CTE course taking Disen-gaged Engaged: employ-ment Engaged: Postsec. Ed. Engaged: Both Youth took: Any general ed. CTE 0.26 3.68** 0.81 1.26 Concentration of occupa-tionally specific general ed. CTE 0.50 0.93 3.72 0.94 ** p < .01

Fully engaged (collapsed) 16.07* Association between engagement and transition planning goals and instruction Odds Ratios Postschool goal on transition plan Disen-gaged Engaged: employ-ment Engaged: Postsec. Ed. Engaged: Both Transition planning goals: Graduate 2/4 year college or CTE school 0.60 0.16 2.40 20.11* Find competitive employment 0.16* 0.56 1.20 3.50* Do both 0.10** 0.34 0.70 4.63* Student instructed in transition planning process 0.07* Fully engaged (collapsed) 16.07* * p < .05, ** p < .01.

Fully engaged (collapsed) Association between engagement and parents involvement and expectations Odds Ratios Parents’ involvement and expectations Disen-gaged Engaged: employ-ment Engaged: Postsec. Ed. Engaged: Both Scale of family support at home 0.72 1.46 9.15* 0.22* Scale of family involvement at school 0.90 0.48 3.12 0.62 Expects youth eventually will: Become financially self-sufficient 5.65*** 0.20 0.77 Find competitive employment 0.57 Fully engaged (collapsed) 3.13* * p < .05, ** p < .01. Empty cell = No significant relationship

Association between high school graduation and engagement Odds Ratios CTE course taking Disen-gaged Engaged: employ-ment Engaged: Postsec. Ed. Engaged: Both Youth graduated from high school 0.23* 2.09 2.04 1.29 * p < .05

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner Implications Transition planning could Encourage active student and parent participation in goal setting Encourage a concentration of CTE for those with a primary transition goal of employment Include both academic and CTE teachers in transition plan for a holistic view of a student’s program More actively reach out to potential employers Supports for success in academic courses GPA powerfully predicts high school graduation Youth with ED fail more courses than any other students with disabilities, largely academic courses Analyses show providing learning supports significantly improves odds of graduating LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012

NLTS2: Students with LD; Dr. Lynn Newman & Dr. Mary Wagner For more information: Full reports Executive summaries Fact sheets & Data briefs Data tables www.nlts2.org LDAA 49th Annual International Conference, Chicago, IL, 2012