Week 21 Review Yet another week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, and China “preparing for a long trade war”. However, at the end of the week Trump says “good possibility of a China deal and Huawei could be included.” PM May says she will resign on 7th June. More pressure on the AUD – RBA says it is considering a rate cut in June. The week closes with Westpac saying it now expects 3 rate cuts this year. WTI drops 6.6% over the week on sentiment and technical selling. On the W1 chart… Equities drop over the week. GOLD has its 6th week in a tight range. USD maintains its upwards trend although has a down week. EUR rises over the week, and technically breaks its down trend. The GBP continues to slide. The JPY rises on negative sentiment. AUD and NZD have a slight rally, but things still look grim for the AUD in particular.

22 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 27/5/19 Current Trend W1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events (Sunday) - EU Elections. Brexit Party win in UK. Populists do well across the EU. Trump places tariffs on Mexico, initially 5%, as of June 10, rising to 25% by Oct 1st, until illegal immigration stops Risk Off Neutral Themes Equities, Oil (reversal of technical selling), AUD weakness, USDTRY (TRY weakness – monitor), GBP weakness USD Up Holiday Prelim GDP Core PCE Price Index EUR Down trend broken Holiday (FR, DE) German Prelim CPI German Retail Sales JPY Swing Tokyo Core CPI GBP Down CAD No trend Rate Statement GDP AUD Rally on downtrend? JP Morgan calling for 4 cuts by mid 2020 NZD Financial Stability Report Annual Budget – GDP forecast 2018/19 2.1% vs previous 2.9% CNY Manufacturing PMI (moves into contraction) Equities Dipping from highs Gold Consolidating Oil Recovery from technical selling? API Inventories: -5.3m vs exp -0.9m EIA Inventories: -0.3m vs exp -0.9m

Week 22 Review An almost solidly risk-off week, capped at the end by Trump placing a drastic tariff threat on Mexico. The US provided the only decent economic news, with GDP and PCE coming in on expectation. Elsewhere it was pretty much solid red – German CPI and Retail Sales, Japan CPI and Chinese Manufacturing Production all missed expectations. Further, the RBNZ made a big cut to forecast GDP and JP Morgan called for four rate cuts in Australia. On the W1 chart… Most equities drop to the 38 Fib, with the Japan 225 dropping below the 62 Fib, propelled by the strong JPY. WTI almost hits the 62 Fib and GOLD rises significantly. USD maintains its upwards trend. EUR moves down, having technically broken its downwards trend in week 21. JPY moves up in an almost unbroken run since early April. GBP continues to drop on Brexit uncertainty. AUD stages a modest recovery despite real pressure on interest rates.

23 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 3/6/19 Current Trend W1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events China issues paper blaming US for breakdown in trade talks; Goldman Sachs reduces Q2 US GDP forecast. US says China misrepresenting trade talks. Nasdaq in correction territory as US gov announces anti-trust probes into big tech. US yields falling. China holds mtg on rare earth exports and advises against US travel US reaches agreement with Mexico and tariffs suspended indefinitely – Twitter 1731 Friday Risk Off On Neutral Neutral/on Themes Equities; AUD weakness (vs USD, JPY), WTI, (USDTRY added after the video was made) USD Up trend broken ISM Manu PMI; Fed’s Bullard is first Fed member to call for rate cut Fed Chair Powell speaks - Tues 14:55 – Fed Chair Powell allude to rate cuts, other voters mixed ISM Non-Manu PMI Average Hourly Earnings; NFP (75K vs 177K) Unemployment Rate EUR Down trend broken German Bund yields hit all-time low as manu sector contracts Monetary Policy Statement Press Conference – rates held until at least mid 2020 (prev. end 2019). JPY Swing GBP Down Manufacturing PMI Construction PMI Services PMI CAD No trend Trade Balance (Un)employment AUD Rally on downtrend? Retail Sales; Cash Rate/Statement – 25bp cut as expected GDP NZD Holiday CNY Caixin Manu PMI Equities Dipping from highs Powell’s comments boost equities Gold Powell boost Oil Recovery from technical selling? API Inventories: +3.55m vs exp -0.8m EIA Inventories: +6.8m vs exp -1.7m

Week 23 Review A very good week for global equities, particularly in the US. The jump is caused by three issues: Fed members calling for or hinting at a rate cut, Powell included the ending of the Mexico sanctions threat a very poor NFP print (driving expectations of a rate cut which is positive for equities) On the W1 chart… Global equities significantly up. USD significantly down on rate cut expectations, making a lower low. JPY has first down week since late March. EUR moves up, producing a second higher high. GOLD moves up, driven by the weak USD.

24 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 10/6/19 Current Trend W1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Global Times - Beijing preparing for worsening relationship US NEC Director Kudlow says China has broken WTO terms and Trump will take action Risk Neutral Neutral/on Themes Equities, GOLD short, AUDUSD short, GBP strength, USDTRY USD Up trend broken (Headline/Core) CPI Retail Sales – on target and significant upwards revisions to prior – USD rises EUR Down trend broken Holiday JPY Swing GBP Down GDP; Manufacturing Production; BoE Haldane and Saunders says return to neutral policy (2%) sooner than expected may be required Average Earnings Labour’s parliamentary control bill defeated CAD No trend AUD Rally on downtrend? Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Un)employment NZD CNY Trade Balance Fixed Asset Investment; Industrial Production Equities Rising on rate cut hopes Gold At major resistance Oil Recovery from technical selling? API Inventories: +4.9m vs exp -0.5m; OPEC President says near cut extension; EIA downgrades short term oil demand for 2019/20. EIA Inventories: +2.2m vs exp -0.1m OPEC-JMMC Mtgs; Tanker “incidents” in the Gulf of Oman US accuse Iran of tanker attacks – positive for WTI, bad for sentiment

Week 24 Review A very quiet week with little action. Global equities hold the prior week’s gains but go nowhere. WTI drops despite further tanker attacks in the Gulf. GOLD holds its position just below major resistance. On currencies, the AUD continues to decline after gloomy Consumer Sentiment from Westpac and a miss on Unemployment. The USD rises all week and then gets a further boost on Friday as Retail Sales seems to lessen the chance of a rate cut. The corresponding move in equities (a fall) doesn’t occur. On the W1 chart… Global equities static. USD significantly up on safe haven flows and then Retail Sales. JPY moves up slightly. EUR establishes an up trend. AUD continues to feel rate cut pressure. GBP grinds below support as no-deal Brexit looms. WTI closes down and bang on the 62 Fib. GOLD is volatile but closes near the open.

25 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 17/6/19 Current Trend W1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Trump sending 1000 troops to Gulf Trump saying he will have "extended meeting" with Xi next week in Osaka at the G20. Iran says it shot down a US drone. US deny this. Trump says he has the authority to remove Powell. Risk Neutral/off Themes Weak AUD, equities, GOLD USD Up trend broken Fed Funds, Economic Projections, Statement and Press Conference EUR Up trend established ECB head Draghi says if outlook doesn’t improve and inflation doesn’t strengthen, "additional stimulus will be required" adding that the ECB can amend its forward guidance, that rate cuts remain “part of our tools” and asset purchases (more QE!) are also an option. FR and DE Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI JPY Swing Monetary Policy Statement GBP No deal fear CPI Retail Sales; Super Thursday CAD No trend Retail Sales AUD Rate cuts Expected Macquarie expects rate at 0.50% by year end Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – “further easing likely” RBA Governor Lowe NZD Following AUD GDP CNY Equities Consolidating Gold At major resistance Oil API Inventories: -0.81m vs exp -1.1m EIA Inventories: -3.1m vs exp -1.5m

Figures are medians 2.25-2.50% 2.50-2.75% 2.50%-2.75% 2.25-2.50% 2.50-2.75% 2.50%-2.75% 2.25-2.50% 2.00-2.25% 2.25%-2.50% Figures are medians