Co-Chair, the Institute of Place Management #highstreetsfund Simon Quin Co-Chair, the Institute of Place Management #highstreetsfund

Visions for multifunctional high streets

HSUK 2020 model How much control over a factor Leadership Explain the model How much each factor influences vitality and viability

Geared to the future Focused on multifunctionality

The growth of online spending 30.0% 2018 18% Growth of online is a key driver of change now 1.6% 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2028 CRR 2018/ONS 2018

Town centre share of retail expenditure 49.4% As online has gone up – town centre spend has gone down. If we go back to the late 1970s, town centre expenditure was closer to 75% and then out of town came along. The changes in planning regulations had some impact, certainly stopping further regional malls, but as we know not doing much for other forms of out of town retailing. However, you will see that this recent decline of almost 13% occurs over roughly the period that online has taken an 18% share Parliament 2000-2014, CRR 2017-2022

Multiple retailers in administration Number of stores CRR 2019

Sharing Personalisation Pop-ups Retail + Experiential Retailtainment Sharing economy – reused, secondhand - Personalised shopping – the curated economy - Experiential retailing Retailtainment

3D printing – micromanufacturing, in retail stores and in homes expected to be widely adopted by 2030 – producing 5% of consumer products. Make while u wait …. Peronsalised products

. Internet of Things – mid 2020s, data collection, personalised experience, 30 connected things each by 2030 – automatic shopping – fridge will automatically replenish itself by ordering products when you run out …. 10% of people will be wearing clothes connected to the internet by 2022 - gathering of personal data and targeting of products and services

AI – merchandising, in store pricing, personalisation – not just online but also instore

Retail Robotics – operational efficiency, faster transactions, 24 hour operation

Changing consumer behaviour

Footfall: The perceived wisdom Over 1/5 of annual footfall – run up to Christmas + assumed all centres have the same pattern – the only thing that differentiates one centre from another is volume ….

Comparison signature (20% in 2018) Holiday signature (9% in 2018) Speciality signature (31% in 2018) Multifunctional signature (40% in 2018)

Over 85s +100% Over 65s +35% 2016-2041 Population is changing as well and across the 25 year period ONS uses this will have a real impact. Responses – dementia friendly cities ONS 2017

Department of Transport – with almost 33m more licence holders than ever – however – all age categories below 40 shrinking compared to early 1990s – whereas drivers older than 70 have nearly doubled. Generational gap. Younger people less likely to hold a licence + licence holder

Transport and access However, requires new infrastructure and new street clutter …..

Transport and access Autonomous vehicles – commercial production 2019, 1 million sold in 2025, 50% of all vehicles will be highly autonomous by 2030 - 33 million by 2040 . Parking implications – new study by University of Toronto says car park capacity can increase 62% with autonomous vehicles. Vehciles might not even need parking – dropping off their owners in town before driving themselves home?

Transport and access 1 in 10 cars sold in 2030 will be shared vehicles. Reductions in car drivers. University of Oxford and Bristol Number of young people with driving licences is down 40% on the early 1990s. Car trips for young adults are down 36% this decade compared to the 1990s. Whim – Helsinki. Mobility as a Service – integrated service charge for all forms of transport – available via an app. Cities banning cars.

A desire for non-retail things Health Fitness Leisure Entertainment Housing Eating Culture A desire for non-retail things

place-based and ‘porous’