Has the left-right divide become obsolete in EU politics? David Amiel 25/06/2019

Electoral results of Europe’s major conservative parties 1. The traditional left-right divide is collapsing in European countries Recent and spectaculary results should be read in light of a decades-old collapse of traditional right and left parties Electoral results of Europe’s major conservative parties (Pierre Martin, Crise mondiale et systèmes partisans, 2018, Sciences Po Presses )

Electoral results of Europe’s major social democratic parties 1. The traditional left-right divide is collapsing in European countries Recent and spectaculary results should be read in light of a decades-old collapse of traditional right and left parties Electoral results of Europe’s major social democratic parties (Pierre Martin, Crise mondiale et systèmes partisans, 2018, Sciences Po Presses )

2. The causes of the collapse run deep A structural change calls for structural explanations The traditional issues underlying the left/right divide are less relevant Divisions about capitalism lost much of their intensity Right-wing parties do not intend on dismantling the Welfare state Left-wing parties have accepted a globalized market economy Divisions about individual rights lost much of their intensity Right-wing parties have adopted much of those that were once pioneered by the left (e.g. gay marriage) Left-wing parties run short of mobilizing issues in that dimension In the meantime, left and right parties turned a blind eye to the new challenges that arose territorial inequalities, labor market polarization, multiculturalism, environment crisis, etc.

2. The causes of the collapse run deep This blindness itself has root causes that need to be tackled Political causes Inertia of parties’ structuration leading to within-party divisions being sometimes more important than between-party divisions Sociological causes Excessive professionalisation : parties became smaller clubs as memberships to mass organizations declined Excessive technocratisation : parties became « managers of the state » instead of providing a political direction to society Ideological causes Naiveté towards the globalization process in all its dimensions (economic, demographic, cultural) This is what populism, through the « take back control » creed, got right. Does it mean that populist movements provide for a credible alternative?

3. Where are we heading? Populism is a symptome of the massive failure of the left/right divide It becomes, in many countries, one of the two main political actors M5S/Lega in Italy, FN in France, « Brexiters » in the UK... It is an attitude more than an ideology It provides a coherent narrative for the failure of established parties Betrayal of the « people » by groups that do not belong to the community (the elites, the rich, the migrants...) It does not provide for a coherent plaftorm It can be an asset (e.g. ability to forge unexpected coalitions, lack of accountability by lack of clear objectives) It can also be a liability (e.g. never-ending escalation once in power) The situation has become highly unstable Usual explanatory variables of voting behaviour lose ground towards more individualistic (e.g. psychological) explanations Lower cost of entry to electoral competition (or social mobilization) leads to a much quicker « disruptions » of established movements than before

3. Where are we heading? Progressivism? Defending the ideals of “liberal democracy” while taking into account the failures and naiveté of old left/right parties It requires « taking back control » by reinforcing political powers at all levels, which questions the role played by the EU... People do not believe that nation states alone would offer more protection in globalization but they do not believe either that EU as it goes will ...and which in turn requires seing the EU as a strategic power within globalization (rather than an internal European project for managing relations between the continent’s various actors) It can neither be interpreted in terms of left vs. right nor only in terms of more vs. less Europe How it will be taken into account by the various European movements is still a major unknown

3. Where are we heading? The European malaise comes primarily from a lack of control on the major changes induced by globalization in our societies To that extent, the European Union has become the « gordian knot » of this malaise EU politics will have an impact on politics in the EU to an extent that has never been seen before.