Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Market Outlook ProAg Series Meeting Decorah, Iowa Dec. 9, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.5 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 175.3 170.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,601 15,226 14,060 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,738 2,403 Imports 36 32 67 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,400 17,013 16,513 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,130 5,650 5,500 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,300 5,325 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,435 1,440 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,950 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,662 14,610 14,215 Ending Stocks 2,298 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013-16, USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.7 85.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.5 47.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,361 4,050 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 480 Imports 72 33 24 30 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,588 4,560 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 1,935 Seed & Residual 107 146 121 127 130 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 2,100 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,943 4,108 4,165 Ending Stocks 396 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.20 9.35 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013-16, USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Current Corn Futures 3.62 3.31 Source: CME Group, 12/8/2016

Current Soybean Futures 9.74 9.63 Source: CME Group, 12/8/2016

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

2017/18 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/