Forecast Verification time!

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Presentation transcript:

Forecast Verification time! Senor Perfect Forecast 80/81 84 6 ….

4 pm = 6 5 pm = 2

SPC storm reports

DAY 2 DAY 2

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Increase instability Troposphere Make it colder aloft - ? Measures of: Lifted Index (LI) CAPE Make it warmer near surface – How ?

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Low-level moisture Measured by: Dew Point - Minimally 60+ - Preferably 70+ Moist air advection WARM WATER

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Upper level support JS JS JS Noted by: 500mb pattern - Trough in flow - Well-defined vorticity max, X WARM WATER

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Da Winds … Speed sheer Directional sheer

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: JS JS JS Sheer Noted by: 500mb pattern - Trough in flow - Well-defined vorticity max, X WARM WATER

Thunderstorm ingredients: Surface pressure 500 mb - aloft L X Warm/moist 700 mb – Relative humidity

L SPC Storm Archive

Cyclogenesis – How storms form

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

Surface Weather Maps H

500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS) This Afternoon L x H H

500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS) This Afternoon L L H H

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL - Soundings

RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation - Varies between? - If in a cloud ….. RH = ? Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v) T = 85 D = 65 RH = 51% How can we make a cloud? RH Calculator

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