Forecast Verification time! Senor Perfect Forecast 81 87 … ….

4 pm = 2

Radar at 5:30 pm SPC storm reports

DAY 4 DAY 4

FINAL SCORES ADVANCED CAMP

Springtime tornadoes have been above average for the majority of the current decade: T or F? Data show Springtime tornados are more prevalent this decade than the previous one The average number of Spring tornadoes has risen 16% this decade, increasing from an average of 558 (2001-2010) to 646. The average number of Spring tornado reports has risen 16% this decade, increasing from an average of 558 reports (2001-2010) to 646 (119) (600) (396) (205) Spring last decade (since 2011) Years above average: 4 Years below average: 6 Spring this decade (since 2011) Years above average: 4 Years below average: 5 (1,287) Climate Science News https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30052019/tornado-climate-change-connection-science-research-data

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Increase instability Troposphere Make it colder aloft - ? Measures of: Lifted Index (LI) CAPE Make it warmer near surface – How ?

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Low-level moisture Measured by: Dew Point - Minimally 60+ - Preferably 70+ Moist air advection WARM WATER

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Upper level support JS JS JS Noted by: 500mb pattern - Trough in flow - Well-defined vorticity max, X WARM WATER

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: Da Winds … Speed sheer Directional sheer

Strong Thunderstorm ingredients: JS JS JS Sheer Noted by: 500mb pattern - Trough in flow - Well-defined vorticity max, X WARM WATER

Thunderstorm ingredients: Surface pressure 500 mb - aloft L X Warm/moist 700 mb – Relative humidity

L SPC Storm Archive

Cyclogenesis – How storms form

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

Surface Weather Maps H

500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS) This Afternoon L x H H

500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS) This Afternoon L L H H

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL - Soundings

RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation - Varies between? - If in a cloud ….. RH = ? Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v) T = 85 D = 65 RH = 51% How can we make a cloud? RH Calculator