Creation of a Quantitative Score to Predict the Need for Mechanical Support in Children Awaiting Heart Transplant Ryan R. Davies, MD, Shylah Haldeman,

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Presentation transcript:

Creation of a Quantitative Score to Predict the Need for Mechanical Support in Children Awaiting Heart Transplant Ryan R. Davies, MD, Shylah Haldeman, RN, Michael A. McCulloch, MD, Christian Pizarro, MD The Annals of Thoracic Surgery Volume 98, Issue 2, Pages 675-684 (August 2014) DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2014.04.087 Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Distribution of prediction scores within (A) derivation cohort and (B) validation cohort. (MCS = mechanical circulatory support.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 98, 675-684DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2014.04.087) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Observed incidence of primary outcome (death or need for mechanical circulatory support [MCS] within 2 months) by PedsMCS score among (A) entire study population, (B) derivation cohort, and (C) validation cohort. Bar graphs illustrate the incidence of the primary outcome by PedsMCS score with patients aggregated into 4 groups: low risk, 0 to 5; moderate risk, 6 to 10; high risk, 11 to 15; and very high risk, ≥16; p < 0.0001.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 98, 675-684DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2014.04.087) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Observed versus expected (predicted) incidence of primary outcome (need for MCS or death within 2 months of listing) within the (A) validation cohort and (B) derivation cohort. (Diamonds = observed incidence at each PedsMCS score; solid black line = predicted incidence with 95% confidence intervals shown in gray; dotted line = observed mortality best-fit Lowess smooth line; MCS = mechanical circulatory support.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 98, 675-684DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2014.04.087) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 4 Kaplan-Meier estimates of long-term survival on the waitlist (censored at transplant or removal from the list) stratified by PedsMCS score risk group. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 98, 675-684DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2014.04.087) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions