Davor Stern, B.Sc. Petroleum Engineering May 2019.

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Presentation transcript:

Davor Stern, B.Sc. Petroleum Engineering May 2019. ENERGY MARKET FORECAST FOT THE BALKANS IN AN ERA OF RAPID CHANGES AND ENERGY TRANSITION Davor Stern, B.Sc. Petroleum Engineering May 2019.

Forecast up to 2040…

Energy source forecast up to 2040 Need for energy will grow by 25%, mainly in developing countries and India in particular Energy efficiency will have to grow in order to keep the energy growth need by another 25% Oil peak production is expected in 2025, by when the start of prevailing usage of electricity in transport is expected

Gas production vs. PeTroleum production

Gas production vs. PeTroleum production Since 2010. gas production grows significantly compared to oil production. This trend will continue. Mainly due to vs shale gas production Massive shale gas production in europe not likely happen

Not possible to predict future oil prices

Forecast to electricity production Cost in the us up to 2040…

Forecast to electricity production Cost in the us up to 2040… Coal declines Oil declines Nuclear stable Renewables significantly higher Gas usage soars

region Europe is interconnected with a network of oil, gas and electricity transmission lines There is a huge disbalance between the West and East, which is quite understandable what has to be highlighted is the „black hole” of South-East Europe or the Balkans.

Europe by night – balkan dark spot

Map Of The European Natural Gas Network

European crude oil pipelines map

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

From the charts, it is clearly visible that the Balkan region is energy short. At the same time, the regional countries have a very high unemployment rate. By putting into perspective that two elements we could conclude that bringing more available and affordable energy the Balkans could become an industrial region of high potential level within Europe and, hopefully in the future of the European Union.

INDUSTRIAL ENERGY RELEASES HUMAN ENERGY Unemployment rate Average salary (EUR) Number of employed Number of unemployed Albania 12,70% 378 1.135.000 64.000 Bosnia and Herzegovina 34,48% 448 823.455 437.783 Montenegro 16,62% 511 195.353 38.550 Kosovo 31,40 % 504 88.701 96.709 North Macedonia 21,60% 399 771.806 185.803 Serbia 12,90% 426 2.817.400 560.050