JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 22, 2019 ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY OF RICE PRODUCTION AND FARMERS’ RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA NUHU MOHAMMED GALI 201726065 SUPERVISOR: PROF. MATSUI KENICHI JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 22, 2019 1

Background of study Study Objectives Research Methodology Update of results Research/Future Plan 2

Study Area The Upper East Region (UER) located north east of Ghana Key Rice producing region, accounts for about 27% rice output in Ghana (Aggrey-Fynn, 2000; Al-hassan, S., 2011 ) The region is most vulnerable to hazards of Climate change (Antwi-Agyei, 2012; Nkrumah et al., 2014) Region Vulnerability attributed to stagnated development and dry-land agriculture system (De Pinto et al., 2012) Rice production is mainly climate dependent (Rainfed) Rice farmers in this region perceived decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, and reduced crop yields (Zakaria et al., 2017) Climate change impact affect sustainable Rice production , food security and livelihoods of farmers Source: www.worldatlas.com 3

Main objective To examine the vulnerability of rice production to impact of climatic variability and farmers coping capacity towards building resilience Specific Objectives: To assess the vulnerability of rice production to climatic hazards using yield and climate data. To assess farmers coping strategies to climate variability at the community and district level. To assess the Socio-economic factors influencing resilience to climate change among districts 4

Research Methodology Data collection Quantitative Questionnaire survey Questionnaire structure (2 sections): Socio-demographic characteristics Coping strategies Questionnaire administration: July 2017 and March 2018 Purposive sampling: Communities= 5X 10 respondents Districts = 4x50 respondents Total: 200 farmers Climate and Yield data Rainfall data for 2 decades from two stations (SARI/Gmet-Navrongo) Grain Yields of Rice for 2 decades (SRID-MOFA) 5

Study Areas The UER located north east of Ghana is home to thirteen administrative districts Geographically falls within two of the savannah ecosystems, characterized by Unimodal rainfall pattern Receives lowest rainfall within the Savannah zone :Average rain fall;800mm to 1100mm, Minimum temperature; 14oC, Maximum temperature; 35oC (GSS, 2014) Four selected study districts representative of the two ecological zones of the region (1.Guinea savannah, 2. Sudan Savannah Source: www.worldatlas.com Rice farming is rainfed mostly at valley bottoms (Tamne and Tamde) in Pusiga and Garu tempani Districts (Pwalugu,Winkogo, pusi Namogo) in Talensi District (Fumbisi,Gibedembilisi, Wiesi) in Builsa Distict

1.Rice yield response to climatic variability Regression analysis Confirm the significant impact of rainfall and temperature anomalies on rice yield anomalies 7

2.Vulnerability/ Crop failure analysis Rainfall and rice yield data were detrended using auto regression with a 3 year lag and a Vulnerability/crop failure index was calculated Vulnerability (V) = Yield loss sensitivity Index (S) Exposer Index (E) Simelton, E., et al.,2009) Yield loss Sensitivity Index = Expected Yield Actual Yield Exposer Index = Average long term growing season rainfall(1991-2017) Average growing season rainfall for each year 8

2 Results of field Survey 1.1 Socio-demographic characteristic of respondents Source: Field survey, 2017 9

3.Most critical constrain observed in rice production Source: Field survey 2017 Observed Climatic Variability Respondents indicated experiencing an increasing trend in temperature for a long period of time along with prolonged dry season 10

4.Exposer to climatic hazards Fig 2 Observed Climatic hazards in UER 87% Floods Climate change hazards 98% Dryspell/drought 94% Increased temperatures 50 150 200 250 Percenta1g0e0 response 11

5. Impact of climate hazards on Rice production Fig 3 Impact of climatic hazards on rice production Percentage Fig 4 Rice yields and production rate for the past decade as perceived by respondents Percentage 40 78 24 20 16 15 7 Decreased Increased Yield rate Not changed Reduced crop yield Total lost of production Loss of cultivable lands Increased cost of production Impact Land tenure insecurity Infertile/Degraded lands 23% 30% Food availability 47% Fig 5 Risk Most threating risk of climate change in rice farming Risk 12 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percentage response 35% 40% 45% 50%

6. Rice farmers coping strategies Fig 6 Rice farmers awareness of Climate smart strategies 250 200 150 100 50 87 133 44 57 Frequency Percentage response Yes NO awareness and adoption of some strategies were very low Low adoption of some strategies attributed to limited knowledge and inadequate resources ( i.e. irrigation infrastructure) The coping strategies adopted was positively correlated with farmers’ 1. Rice farming experience (r = 0.173, P < 0.007), 2. Education (r = 0.136, P < 0.028), 3. Household labour (r = 0.117, P < 0.049), 4. Access to climate information (r = 0.324, P < 0.00103 )

7. Alternative Livelihood strategies in response to Climate change Farmers rely on the social network for access to financial services in times of need Membership to social network improves farmers’ information sharing, access to extension services and resources 14

Future Research Plan The coping capacity of smallholder farmers’ Socio-economic factors influencing resilience to climate change among districts 15

References De Pinto, A., Demirag, U., & Haruna, A. (2012). Climate change, agriculture, and foodcrop production in Ghana. Simelton, E., et al., Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio- economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961–2001). Environ. Sci. Policy (2009), doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.005 Al-hassan, S. (2011). Production Risks and Coping Mechanisms: The Case of Rice farmers in the Upper East Region of Ghana. Forum for Agricultural Risk Management in Development (FARMD) Ghana Statistical Service (2014). “2010 population and housing census: A summary report of results. http://www.statsghana.gov.gh/pop_stats.html. Antwi-Agyei, P., Fraser, E. D., Dougill, A. J., Stringer, L. C., and Simelton, E. (2012). Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data. Applied Geography, 32(2), 324-334 16

Thank you 17