How transformational change promotes ambitious NDCs Assessing the potential and impacts of policies and actions

Outline Introductions Transformational Change - the ICAT definition Methodological steps Sharing of pilot experiences

Introductions To the session and to ICAT

Objectives and expected outcomes of the session To understand the concept of 'Transformational change' as defined in the ICAT Transformational Change Methodology and; To know how it applies to assessment of policies and actions for enhanced ambition of NDC implementation. Expected outcomes; Participants will know of examples on how information on transformational impact can support climate finance decisions, policy design and international transparency; Participants are better prepared to undertake their own assessments of transformational impact of policies and actions for enhanced ambition of NDC implementation

ICAT's objectives Provide policymakers around the world with tools and support to assess the impacts of their climate policies and actions, to develop effective and ambitious climate action and mobilize investment. Towards this overall goal ICAT: Provides methodologies, tools, and metrics to assess policy effectiveness Supports counties to develop their capacity in building and using transparency for their policy processes

ICAT Methodologies

Multi-stakeholder partnership

Transformational Change The ICAT definition

The ICAT definition Transformational change is defined in this methodology as: A fundamental, sustained change of a system that disrupts established high-carbon practices and contributes to a zero-carbon society in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 - 2 °C temperature goal and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Characteristics of Transformational Change

Examples of transformational change   Types of change Examples Incremental Reform Transformation Waste Less waste (waste regime) Waste recycling Cradle to Cradle no waste regime) Racism Reduction of discrimination (racial segregation regime) More rights for the discriminated Same rights for all (no racial segregation) Climate change mitigation Increasing energy efficiency (lower carbon regime) Promoting renewable energies (low carbon regime) Abandoning fossil energy, using 100% renewables (carbon neutral regime) Source: GIZ (forthcoming).

Informed by sustainability transition theories

Methodology development process Secretariat Drafting team Technical Working Group Review Group Pilot testing

Time plan to finalize ICAT methodologies

Methodology Steps to assess the transformational impact of policies and actions

Structure of the methodology

Describe the policy and define the assessment boundary and period (Ch Recommended information to describe the policy - template provided Define the assessment boundary Impacts covered, geographical and sectoral coverage Define the assessment period

Identify the Phase of Transformation (Ch.6)

Describe the vision for TC (Ch. 6) Time Example: Solar PV policy Long-term (≥15 years): Contributing to the global vision of zero-carbon and sustainable development, the desired future change is to achieve zero carbon electricity production. The 2050 vision is to achieve 60% solar PV in the national electricity mix and create 2 million new green jobs. The policy, however, does not result in a significant change at the global level. Medium-term (≥5 years and <15 years): The mid-term vision by 2030 is to achieve 30% solar PV in the national electricity mix and create a million new green jobs. In addition, the policy has set the following goals at the national/sectoral level: Annual emission reductions of 20 million tCOR2Re 200,000 new green jobs (e.g., in solar PV installation and maintenance sectors) Short-term (<5 years): The short-term vision by 2022 is to install 40 GW of rooftop solar PV and create 200,000 new green jobs in doing so. The solar PV policy is implemented at subnational levels supported by incentives for private sector involvement and knowledge development. In rural districts and towns solar PV mini-grids enable economic growth, poverty reduction and new jobs.

Choosing which TC characteristics to assess (Ch 6)

Assessing the starting situation (Ch. 7) Identify indicators to describe the starting situation (Section 7.1) Provide values for indicators to describe the starting situation

Transformational impact assessment (Ch. 8-9) - Tonga case Technology Agents Incentives Norms

Monitoring & Reporting (Ch 10-11) Develop a monitoring plan Monitor indicators over time Communicate to your audience the recommended information, including: Information about the policy and vision of transformational change Assessment results & how will these be used to inform policy design or implementation Underlying assumptions, data sources, etc.

Learning, decision making, interpreting results (Ch 12)

More information Contacts: Karen Olsen, UNEP DTU Partnership kaol@dtu.org Neelam Singh, World Resources Institute nsingh@wri.org www.climateactiontransparency.org

Pilot case studies Sharing of experiences

Questions for RT discussions What examples of transformational change do you know? How can information on transformational impact of policies and actions be useful in climate finance decisions, policy design and transparency? What are the expected time, skills and resource requirements to do your own assessment of transformational impact in support of enhanced ambition of NDC implementation?