An Integrated Approach to Observations of Pre-earthquake Signals Pre-Earthquake Processes A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov A brief Explanation Presentation prepared and made by Garry de la Pomerai Finally we have publications that clearly explain some of the precursor components for earthquake prediction. Recent publications offer an insight into the multi disciplinary approach by globally accreted scientists both from within Seismology and from GIS disciplines. When combined it provides an integrated satellite and terrestrial framework for multi-parameter observations of regional anomalies indicating data signature formations which confirm the prediction data of a potential developing earthquake event. Special thanks to  Sergey Pulinets, Valerio Tramutoli, Tiger Liu and Katsumi Hattori for their help and support

Earthquakes progress as chain reactions Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov 2,3- Earthquakes progress as chain reactions; Schematic view for pre –earthquake signals, reported before and used in our research; and Current Status of EEW in relation to Earthquake processes. Diagram shows that existing gap in the development of operational forecasting activities which this presentation addresses.(After Tom Jordan,SCEC,2011). After Tom Jordan (SCEC, Monterey CA,2011)

Earthquakes progress as chain reactions Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov After Tom Jordan (SCEC, Monterey CA,2011)

What is happening before large Earthquakes?

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Physical Model (e.g. Scholz et al., 1973, Tramutoli et al., 2013, Pulinets & Ouzounov, 2011) under stress microcracks formation can increase degassing rate after the quake and fault rupture degassing restart Rn, CO2, CH4 Rn,CO2, CH4 5. Physical model of geo gases release before major earthquakes. under stress microcracks formation can increase degassing rate increasing the pressure microcracks will be closed reducing degassing rate after the quake and fault rupture degassing restart Fault Rupture Seismic shaking Damage to built environment Socioeconomic aftereffects Tectonic loading Stress accumulation Nucleation TIR anomalies Single–event cascade Foreshocks Aftershocks Time EQ decade year month week day day week month year decade Short term

Typical radon variations before earthquake Kobe, Japan 1994-1995 Typical radon variations, Turkey Copala, Mexico Sept 1995 Typical radon gamma variations, Taiwan, 2014 Radon variations, Orange, CA, USA 6.Typical radon variations before earthquake. These are real observations form Kobe , Japan(1995),Copala, Mexico (1995),Turkey, California and Taiwan. Radon indicates in advance for seismic events of different scale form M4 up to M7.4

Observations of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals Kobe, Japan 1994-1995 Copala, Mexico Sept 1995 Typical radon variations NOAA/AVHRR Saraf et al (2003) MODIS/LST] Ouzounov(2004) NOAA/AVHRR Genzano et al (2005) Typical Thermal Anomalies M7.9 Gujarat 2011 India Typical seismo –ionospheric anomalies Good Friday Alaska 27 March 1964, M9.2 Tohoku, Japan 2011 Wenchuan, China 12 May 2008 7.Examples for Observations of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals. Top two images, show radon anomalies before Kobe (1995) and Copala(1995) earthquakes. Middle row show thermal maps for Gujarat , India , 2001 derivate from satellite Thermal infrared imaging. Maps are produced from tree different satellite sources, they show anomalous trend of temperature in atmosphere. Bottom row show ionospheric anomalies in the electron plasma before major historical earthquakes – “Good Friday” Alaska, 1964,Wenchuan ,China 2008 and Tohoku , Japan , 2011. All anomalies are produced after the earthquakes.

LAIC model - Thermal interface Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Faults activation – permeability changes Gas discharges including radon emanation Air ionization by -particles – product of radon decay Ions hydration– formation of aerosol size particles Humidity drop Latent heat release Air temperature growth OLR anomalies 8. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling concept is one of the existing models for generation of thermal anomalies in atmosphere and ionospheric anomalies.   The science rationale for multidisciplinary analysis is based on concept Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) (Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011), which explains the synergy of different physical processes and anomalous variations, usually named short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. The primary cause for pre-Earthquake signals in atmosphere is the air ionization produced by increased emanation of gases, including radon from the Earth’s crust in the vicinity of active tectonic faults. The increased radon emanation (and other geogases) launches the chain of physical processes and chemical reactions from the ground surface up to the magnetosphere, which can also be measured by satellites. The near-earth surface processes lead to two major consequences: 1. Change of the air conductivity and 2. Latent heat release due to water condensation to ions, which is the primary cause for thermal radiation anomalies observed by satellites (Ouzounov et all, 2007). Ionosphere as a part of the global electric circuit immediately reacts to the changes of electric properties.

Concept of Multi Sensor Networking (MSN) of pre-earthquake signals we are investigating Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov 9. Concept of Multi Sensor Networking (MSN)of pre-earthquake signals we are investigating. We show that there many Earth observations satellites in space capable to survey the Earth in different EM range and spatial resolution. According to the Index of Objects Launched into Outer Space, maintained by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), there were 4 987 satellites orbiting the planet at the start of the year; an increase of 2.68% compared to end of April 2018. According to UNOOSA, in history a total of 8 378 objects have been launched into space. Currently, 4 994 are still in orbit – although 7 of them are in orbit around celestial bodies other than the Earth; meaning there are 4 987 satellites whizzing around above our heads every single day.

Thermally emitted Earth’s radiation Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov surface TS: surface temperature eDl: spectral emissivity Since ‘80s a candidate parameter suggesed by several physycal models Global satellite coverage to measure it with high space-time continuity since more than 30 years (continuation planned for decades) 10.Thermally emitted Earth’s radiation registered by satellite observations Since ‘80s Thermally emitted Earth’s radiation been suggested by several physical models Global satellite coverage provides measure withhigh space-time continuity since more than 30 years (continuation planned for decades) total atmospheric transmittance and profile which depends on physical (mainly T(h) temperature profile) and chemical (mainly H2O, CO2, NH4) properties of the atmosphere atmosphere valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Seismo-Ionospheric Precursor (SIP) observed by GPS TEC Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov 11.Seismo-Ionospheric Precursor (SIP)observed by GPS TEC. We show the technique of observing the electron density in ionosphere. with ground GPS receivers The baseline GPS satellite constellation consists of 24 satellites positioned in six earth-centered orbital planes. There are 508 ground GPS stations building the backbone of Global IGS network.

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Multi-layer concept for observation of Pre- Earthquake signals (AMaDEUS) Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov 12. Multi-layer concept for observation of Pre- Earthquake signals (AMaDEUS) Conceptual Diagram of the integrated satellite and terrestrial framework for multi- parameter observations of pre-earthquake signals in Japan (1) Satellite segment; (2) GPS segment ; (3) Ground segment – radon, Electrical field, EM(4) Bottom sea observation – seismic, EM.

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Sensor Web concept of multi- parameter analysis Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Interdisciplinary observations Sensor Web Information Synthesis Predictive knowledge Sensor Nodes Computing Historical Data Predictive models 13.Sensor Web concept of multi- parameter analysis . Show 4 stages Observation, Integration, Synthesis and Prediction  

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Nepal M7.8 of Apr 25, 2015 and M7.3 of May 12, 2015 Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Thermal anomaly 04.23.2015 Nepal M7.8 of Apr 25, 2015 a b Thermal anomaly 05.02.2015 Nepal M7.3 of May 12, 2015 14. Thermal anomalies form satellite observation for Nepal M7.8 of Apr 25, 2015 and M7.3 of May 12, 2015. Anomaly from O4.23 (days in advance) Anomaly from 05.02 ( 10 days in advance) c d

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov More, you can find here… Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Points to take home 1/2 What we know so far? We start detecting pre-Earthquake stage for major seismic events We established continues radon measurements sensitive to seismicity in California, Taiwan and Greece We revealed physical mechanisms that can explain why we observe positive and negative anomalies in ionosphere before major seismic events; We developed several algorithms for automatic detection of thermal and ionospheric precursors We start development of good statistics for atmospheric and ionospheric precursors for different areas of the globe (Taiwan, Japan) , including the Molchan diagram test We discovered the synergetic effects between the ionospheric, thermal, meteorological, geochemical, electromagnetic precursors which made us able to create the LAIC model We provided physical validation of atmospheric ionization effects with other natural events - dust storms, hurricanes, volcanoes Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Points to take home 2/2 Still more work is needed: We need more collaborative and validation work with seismologists on integrated short-term and middle term alerts; We need 3D reconstruction of the electron concentration modification in ionosphere before earthquakes ; We need cross-cutting numerical code to calculate the Electrical Field effects from ground surface up to the ionosphere, what we are working on now (few years necessary); We need to preform un supervised real-time automatic monitoring of pre-earthquake effects using automatic identification; We need to establish data streaming for multiparameter analysis of pre-earthquake phase; We need more young scientists involved! Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019

Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019 These publications clearly combat the theory that seismic events cannot be predicted. In fact 20 chapters of extended abstracts suggests the possibility that the multi disciplinary holistic approach of precursor observations potentially offers us an advancement of early warning, with the physical earthquake rupture being the final occurrence along the time line of the overall seismic event. What makes recent publications really pioneering in comparison  with others is that holistic approach, trying to present and bring together  the research from many  different fields of science:  geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science,  geochemistry , satellites and space science Despite that these publications are only a snapshot of the ongoing research and not all leading scientists in the wider team have yet published  , credit must be recognised for the  unique source of information and citied literature of the  papers so far for the editors and the authors. During the Ignite presentation we shall briefly touch on Key components of the multi disciplinary approach and explain how when combined these potentially will provide DRR with a significant tool in preparedness for larger earthquakes days and potentially weeks in advance.   Topics will include a review of the historical and recent progress; types of observations including Geochemical and Electromagnetic Observations; Atmospheric/ Thermal Signals; Ionosphere Processes; the combined Interdisciplinary approach to Earthquake Predictions In summary this presentation offers an insight with many examples of cross-cutting science, into the significant advancement of understanding tectonic activities which generate the precursor anomalies and signatures of larger pending seismic events. Whilst further research and algorithms are established, this set of research papers referred to in this presentation undeniably opens serious discussion that seismic prediction is already feasible. The paradigm of disaster prevention could be very much advanced by this knowledge. Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019

Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019 Describe why this presentation would be relevant for participants at the Global Platform There are a variety of delegates at the GP 2019 , who will potentially benefit by having the recent advances in seismic forecasting explained. Researchers in the cross-fields of earthquake predictabilities. The presentation provides the historical progress of the past 40 years of observation and research of pre-earthquake phenomena. The interdisciplinary approach provide understanding of the cohesion within the technology development. Graduate students and educators within Academia. Most of the described observations and science methods cannot be found in the traditional college text books. For educators this research has a great reference value exploring cross- disciplinary  education, which is a subliminal value of this project, offering inspirational research and periphery studies of resilience and sustainability in the urbanisation of society. For Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Natural Geo Hazards specialists. The knowledge and insight provided within the referenced 20 papers is of great value for understanding the pre- earthquake rupture processes, as a potential path toward advancing earthquake early warning via reliable prediction prior to rupture. This research is the first of its kind to assemble and collate the components of a multi disciplinary approach to seismic prediction which supports the suggestion that it could became feasible in the near future. Private industry will find this useful and essential to assist develop strategy for operating within high seismic risk environments, presently either not considered viable or classed fatalistic with only the present seconds of early warning within existing early warning alarm systems; For Response and Resilience sectors for widening the development of auto technologies that protect critical infrastructure and physical preparedness that reduces response times within society potentially in advance of destructive shake events. Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019

Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019 What is innovative about this presentation?  This project research is innovative collating many examples of cross-cutting Geo, GIS and Terrestrial science, generating significant pioneering advancement of understanding tectonic activities which identify the precursor anomalies and signatures of larger pending seismic events. Whilst further research and algorithms are established, this pioneering set of research papers referred to in this presentation undeniably opens serious discussion that seismic prediction is already feasible. The publications clearly explain some of the precursor components for earthquake prediction and offer an insight into the multi disciplinary approach by globally accreted scientists both from within Seismology and from GIS disciplines. When combined it provides an pioneering integrated satellite and terrestrial framework for multi-parameter observations of regional anomalies indicating data signature formations which confirm the prediction data of a potential developing earthquake event. This innovative research now combats the theory that seismic events cannot be predicted. In fact 20 chapters of extended abstracts suggests the possibility that the multi disciplinary holistic approach of precursor observations potentially offers us an advancement of early warning, with the physical earthquake rupture being the final occurrence along the time line of the overall seismic event. The paradigm of disaster prevention could be very much advanced by this knowledge. What makes recent publications really pioneering in comparison  with others is the holistic approach, trying to present and bring together  the research from many  different fields of science:  geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science,  geochemistry , satellites and space science Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019

Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Presentation made by Garry de la Pomerai at the UN GP Geneva May 2019 https://www.unisdr.org/conference/2019/globalplatform/programme/ignite-stage/view?id=1064 https://youtu.be/TIehdOaQ72E Coordinating Author Dimitar Ouzounov Special thanks to  Sergey Pulinets, Valerio Tramutoli, Tiger Liu and Katsumi Hattori for their help and support