The Middle And Terrorism UNM 2017 Symposium: Global and National Security Challenges and Opportunities Facing the New Administration April 4-5, 2017 The Middle And Terrorism Presentation by Dr. Emile Nakhleh (enakhleh@unm.edu) 9/25/2019

Key Observations Regional problems are complex and cut across cultural, political, religious, economic, and historical narratives, which are often contradictory Understanding such complexity requires expertise and alliance-supported policies The US is deeply involved in the region and cannot easily walk away Although the US is a key regional player, indigenous forces at play are often outside our control Bombing ISIS, al-Qa’ida, or the Houthis into oblivion might make us feel good, but does not solve the root causes that give rise to terrorism in the first place Addressing these issues requires thoughtful deliberations across government and with regional actors. Early morning tweets don’t cut it! 9/25/2019

The Middle East Today 15 Years Since 9/11 and 6 Years since the Arab Spring A bloody war in Syria, driven mostly by Russia and Iran A destructive, sectarian, proxy war in Yemen, waged mostly by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the so-called Islamic (Sunni) “Coalition,” funded by Saudi Arabia and headed by Pakistani General Raheel Sharif Coalition is fighting Iranian-supported Houthis, NOT ISIS or al- Qa’ida Resurgent autocracy across the region, massive human rights violations (Trump administration’s lifting of human rights as a condition for arms sales to Bahrain, Egypt, etc.) On-going Israeli-Palestinian conflict and expanding settlement activity in the Occupied Territories 9/25/2019

Immediate/Growing Challenges Expanding US involvement in Yemen war, without a strategic plan for the region, thereby empowering sectarianism with a potential for a Saudi- Iranian war—why and for what ends? Expanding role of two external actors, Russia and China, at the expense of the US, perceived as becoming more marginalized Lack of clarity about US long-term regional objectives Regional puzzlement over expected State Department budget cuts (aid, development, etc.) The Trump administration’s apparent shift toward Sunni Arab autocrats and potentates, at the expense of American values This shift is alienating populations and creating more unrest and more terrorists, putting American interests and personnel at risk 9/25/2019

Challenges (Cont’d) Growing uncertainty among regional states about US regional role Potential of nefarious non-state actors obtaining more deadly weapons, possibly including WMD Digital and technological threats—hacking, espionage, etc. Degraded environment, diminishing food, water, and energy security, and rising poverty and epidemics 9/25/2019

Way Forward ISIS is being contained, but regional threats and challenges continue; defeating ISIS will NOT end terrorism Urgent need to address factors that underpin terrorism: extremist ideology, repression, corruption, unemployment The Trump administration should re-assert the US pivotal role in the region through clear statements and policy initiatives, without taking sides on the sectarian divide Gulf security can only be attained through Saudi-Iranian collaboration, not continued war and bloodshed Defeating ISIS and AQAP should be followed by concerted efforts to a) end the Yemen war; b) dislodge the Assad regime; c) address extremist ideology emanating from Saudi Arabia; d) settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; and e) balance Interests and Values—a tall order indeed! Thank you! 9/25/2019