Immigration after Brexit: rebooting policy Jonathan Portes King’s College London & UKandEU May 2018 @jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk

Net migration to UK by citizenship 2

Immigration: where are we now? Free movement will continue in transition period No White Paper or Immigration Bill until end-2018 *at least*. Government has kicked the can on all key issues: Will migration/labour mobility be on the table in negotiations European preference? Sector-based schemes? Regional differentiation? Overall system – “liberal” vs restrictionist Public debate in short-term likely to be dominated by Windrush, status for resident EU citizens, etc, not post-Brexit policy 3

Ending free movement: myths & downsides MYTH: Most EU migrants are low-skilled. FACT: Most are medium-high or medium-low skilled, like Brits MYTH: Ending FM means we can exclude low-skilled migrants & just get high-skilled ones. FACT: Migrants have to choose us. High-skill EU migration *already* falling. MYTH: Ending FM is about border control. FACT: It’s about extending internal controls – “hostile environment” to EU citizens. 4

Time to reboot policy Increase – real and perceived – degree of control of the UK government and Parliament over migration for work purposes from the EEA. Maintain economic advantages of free movement; Minimise additional administrative burdens on individuals, employers and government; Allow UK government to offer meaningful commitment to principle of free movement – but not in its current form – so as to facilitate wider negotiations on the UK’s continued membership of the Single Market. Not about reducing numbers substantially 5

Having our cake and eating it? Yes and no FM is one of “four freedoms”: there will be no cherry-picking Fundamental changes to FM not on EU agenda – though changes to PWD likely But some changes feasible within current system More importantly, post-Brexit UK will not be EU member: greatly increases possible flexibility (see Switzerland) Would require fundamental reset of UK approach to negotiations 6

Unrealistic options Work permit conditional on job offer ? Not “free movement” in a meaningful sense Unlikely to be negotiable Might make abuse/undercutting by agencies more likely Free movement to seek work? Feasible in principle under current rules But difficult to enforce meaningfully Not perceived as major change Emergency brake at national level If imposed on “objective criteria” never imposed If politically driven never removed – becomes a quota Poisoned by Cameron approach 7

What might work? Time limited permission to seek/take up work. Several options here: Declaration on entry that intention is to take up work with specific employer: issued with permission to take up work; Declaration on entry that purpose of entry to seek work: issued time limited permission to take up work New arrivals who wish to seek work required to register for NI number: issued time limited permission to take up work (version of worker registration scheme) Greater use of “smart” NI system Employers would be able to check eligibility on-line (as envisaged in Govt White Paper) Would allow government to monitor trends/impacts at local level 8

Swiss system Not an emergency brake or quota Allows preference for local residents when unemployment in sector/region is high relative to national average UK version could require recruitment preference for JCP claimants (of unemployment and/or disability benefits) Could also relate to local wage rates/trends, not just employment Advantages/negotiability: Proportional response to issues at local/sectoral level Does not discriminate against existing residents who are EU nationals Determined by objective criteria (could be implemented by MAC) Reversible Type of technocratic solution favoured by Commission Modelled on existing system 9

Wider context Would require UK to reset negotiations “Offer” to EU is: UK voted for Brexit & is leaving EU Reflects fundamental incompatibility of UK with EU political structures But want to preserve closest possible economic relationship with EU post-Brexit This includes Single Market and Customs Union We accept this means freedom of movement Want to discuss what form of FM would be compatible with UK membership of SM/CU (but not EU political structures) Longer term: evolution of eurozone governance may open up space for new, “outer ring”/”associate membership” status 10

Immigration after Brexit: rebooting policy Jonathan Portes King’s College London & UKandEU May 2018 @jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk