Forecast Verification time! Perfect Forecast ?

Forecast Verification time! Perfect Forecast 71 YES 0.67” 10

CLIMATOLOGY TEMPS Average: 79 Median Range 81 90 - 65 Standard Dev. +/- 8 RAIN Avg./Mean: Range: % time: 0.16” 0-1.13” 53% What is CLIMATE ?? (vs. weather)

GFS MODEL RAINFALL 12z MON – 12z TUE 0.75”

NAM MODEL RAINFALL 12z MON – 12z TUE 1.20” (0.10” – 4.0”)

NNM/ ARW MODELS RAINFALL 12z MON – 12z TUE 1.0” vs. 0.75” (0.10” – 2.0”)

GFS MODEL NAM MODEL MON EVE LIFTED INDEX LI = LIFTED INDEX = measure of how unstable The atmosphere is between sfc and 500mb Precipitable Water = If we “wrung” out all the moisture in the atmosphere, how much precip would we get

Buoyancy = Tendency for air to Accelerate Convection Conduction

Lifted Index (LI)=-5 Li=? Convection 500mb -10C -5C

Lifted Index (LI)=0 Li=? Convection 500mb -5C -5C

Lifted Index (LI)=+5 Li=? Convection 500mb -0C -5C

SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ?

Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector Air Masses …. Maritime Polar, Maritime Tropical Continental Polar, Continental Tropical

De donde son ustedes? (Where are you from) Most interesting weather at your hometown?

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

If it’s 11 UTC / 11 zulu / 11 Z time ….. -4 DST

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

GFS MODEL - THIS EVENING X

GFS MODEL - THIS EVENING Humidity (700mb) - Accumulated Rain

GFS MODEL - TOMORROW EVENING

GFS MODEL - THURS EVENING X

GFS MODEL - FRIDAY! X

Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER WX CAMP - Forecasting Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER

Today’s Forecast

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

Surface Observations YYZ = Station 57 = 50 = 155 = Temp Dewpoint SL Pressure = Sky cover Station = Temp = Dewpoint = Pressure = PIT 66 65 1013.8mb = SSW 5 kts =Lt. Rain