Who is cheating? A new test is in development to try to identify athletes who use a certain banned substance to enhance their performance. The development.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Theoretical Probability
Advertisements

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Gl: Students will be expected to conduct simple experiments to determine probabilities G2 Students will be expected to determine simple theoretical probabilities.
Combined Events Statistics and Probability. Finding all possible outcomes of two events Two coins are thrown. What is the probability of getting two heads?
Dealing with Data Probability. What’s the probability? What’s the probability of the spinner stopping in the yellow section. (All the sections are equal.)
Probability Sample Space Diagrams.
AP Statistics Section 6.2 A Probability Models
Probability What are your Chances? Overview Probability is the study of random events. The probability, or chance, that an event will happen can be described.
Making Organized Lists. Organized lists help us to determine all of the possible outcomes for an experiment. What is another term we can use for a aa.
Lesson  In this investigation you will explore the predictability of random outcomes. You will use a familiar random process, the flip of a coin.
Conditional Probability and Independence Section 3.6.
The dog ate my homework! A certain teacher, Mr L I Detector, claims he can tell when students are lying about their homework. This is true. Unfortunately,
Calculating Probabilities for Chance Experiments with Equally Likely Outcomes.
Mathematics Jeopardy! ® $100 $200 $300 $400 $100 $200 $300 $400 $100 $200 $300 $400 $100 $200 $300 $400 Final Jeopardy Question Compound Probability Simple.
Level34567 Probability Skills I can use the probability words impossible, certain and even chance to describe the probability of an event occurring. I.
SOL A.How many possible outcomes are there from rolling a number cube? B.What is the probability for achieving each outcome? C.Roll a number cube.
Chapter 9 Review. 1. Give the probability of each outcome.
Bell Work Determine the total number of outcomes (combinations). 1) You are picking an outfit from the following list of clothes. If you choose one hat,
Probability Introduction Examples Key words Practice questions Venn diagrams.
1.4 Equally Likely Outcomes. The outcomes of a sample space are called equally likely if all of them have the same chance of occurrence. It is very difficult.
Y9 Booster Lesson 11. Objectives – what you should be able to do by the end of the lesson Systematically record all the outcomes of an experiment Understand.
Review Homework pages Example: Counting the number of heads in 10 coin tosses. 2.2/
Warm Up There are 30 marbles in a bag. 10 are blue, 7 are red, 6 are yellow, and 7 are purple. 1)What is the probability of getting a red marble? 2)What.
1. What’s the probability that the spinner will land on blue?
MATH 110 Sec 13.3 Conditional Probability Practice Exercises.
Probability.
PROBABILITY BINGO STAAR REVIEW I am based on uniform probability. I am what SHOULD happen in an experiment.
Combined Events Sample Space Diagrams Second die First die Sample space diagrams This table is another way of displaying all the.
 Page 568: Insurance Rates  Probability theory  Chance or likelihood of an event happening  Probability  Each even is assigned a number between.
Introduction to Probability How do we find the theoretical probability of an event?
Probability GPS Algebra. Let’s work on some definitions Experiment- is a situation involving chance that leads to results called outcomes. An outcome.
Counting – Learning Outcomes
PROBABILLITY Transition Math.
Basic Probability Rules
(Single and combined Events)
A ratio that measures the chance that an event will happen
PROBABILITY What are the chances?.
9. Relative frequency and probability
Probability Today you will need …… Orange Books Calculator Pen Ruler
Probability Today you will need to make sure you have
Tallying Tallying is way of counting that helps us when things move quickly. Like Cars!
Probability.
Chapter 3.1 Probability Students will learn several ways to model situations involving probability, such as tree diagrams and area models. They will.
Chapter 3.1 Probability Students will learn several ways to model situations involving probability, such as tree diagrams and area models. They will.
Probability.
PROBABILITY.
Warm- Up #1 Monday, 2/1/2016 Reflect on your first semester in your math class and answer the following questions: Write three new things that you have.
Counting – Learning Outcomes
Probability.
An introduction to tree diagrams (level 7-8)
Experimental Probability
Probability.
Intro to Probability.
RAG Starter Activity Complete the ‘Heard the Word Grid.’
theoretical probability p = number of successful outcomes
Likelihood, Theoretical, and Experimental
Probability and Chance
Probability Vocabulary:
9A Experimental Probability, 9B Sample Space, 9C Theoretical Probability Unit 1: Probability 9A, 9B, 9C 2/24/ :52 AM.
Investigation 1 A First look at Chance
Investigation 2 Experimental and Theoretical Probability
5-8 Probability and Chance
Probability Year 10 IGCSE – Chapter 10.
Probability Today you will need …… Orange Books Calculator Pen Ruler
Probability.
Thursday 05/16 Warm Up 200 people were surveyed about ice cream preferences. 78 people said they prefer chocolate. 65 people said they prefer strawberry.
On your whiteboards: How many ‘maths sentences’ can you write down from this diagram?
Presentation transcript:

Who is cheating? A new test is in development to try to identify athletes who use a certain banned substance to enhance their performance. The development team has accumulated data which indicates that although the test shows good results in detecting an athlete who has used this substance, the number of false positives is more worrying. What are the chances an athlete will be unfairly accused, or will get away with cheating?

In your pairs you should have: a die recording grid red, blue, green and yellow coloured pencils Worksheet 1 Sample Space worksheet Worksheet 2

How it works: Throw one die to determine whether the athlete is doping. A 5 or 6 means they are. If they are doping, throw two dice. If the total is 4, it is a negative test, otherwise it is positive. If they aren’t doping, flip a coin three times. If you get HHH, it is a positive test, otherwise, it is negative. Not doping doping Positive test Negative test

Throw one die 5 or 6. Doping. 1, 2, 3 or 4. Not doping Throw two dice. Flip a coin three times. Total of 4. Negative test Total not 4. Positive test Anything else Negative test HHH Positive test

What do each of these mean? Now repeat the experiment 36 times in total and record on your sheet   You should end up with 36 pairs of coloured blocks.

Throw one die 5 or 6. Doping. 1, 2, 3 or 4. Not doping Throw two dice. Flip a coin three times. Total of 4. Negative test Total not 4. Positive test Anything else Negative test HHH Positive test

So what are the chances that someone will be wrongly accused? What does the evidence on your recording sheet suggest? Are you surprised by what you see? Complete the tree diagram and 2-way table for the results of your experiment.

Fill in the Sample Space sheet to help you find what you should expect to happen.

What are all the possibilities when flipping a coin three times? Try to be systematic.

How do the experimental results compare with what we would expect? Complete worksheet 2