Forecast Verification time! Mr. Perfect Forecast 77 YES 0.03” 9

CLIMATOLOGY TEMPS Average: 79 Median Range 81 90 - 65 Standard Dev. +/- 8 RAIN Avg./Mean: Range: % time: 0.16” 0-1.13” 53% What is CLIMATE ?? (vs. weather)

Lifted Index (LI)=-5 500mb -10C -5C Convection Buoyancy = Tendency for air to accelerate Positive Negative Conduction

Lifted Index (LI)=+5 500mb -0C -5C Negative Buoyancy

Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector Air Masses …. Maritime Polar, Maritime Tropical Continental Polar, Continental Tropical

Air Masses …. Large volume of air with similar T and H characteristics Maritime Tropical Continental Tropical …. Arizona …. 105 … 35 | 70 ... 15 Maritime Polar …. Coastal Washington … 68 … 58 | 40 ... 38 Continental Polar …. Central Canada … 77 … 48 | 15 … -10 Location Summer Winter ….. Florida …. 90 ... 75 | 75 ... 65

De donde son ustedes? (Where are you from) Most interesting weather at your hometown?

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

GFS Forecast – Later today Surface Pressure H

B A X GFS MODEL - THIS EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb) Shortwave/ Vorticity Max / Jet stream Dist.

NAM MODEL GFS MODEL LI WED EVE LIFTED INDEX LIFTED INDEX = measure of how unstable The atmosphere is between sfc and 500mb

NAM MODEL GFS MODEL WED EVE Precipitable Water = If we “wrung” out all the moisture in the atmosphere, how much precipitation would we get?

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

SPC Forecast – Tomorrow (Thursday)

NAM Forecast – Surface Pressure Thursday X L

L X Say it Ain’t “Snow” SEVERE In PA Baby ?!? GFS MODEL - THURS EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb) L X Say it Ain’t “Snow” SEVERE In PA Baby ?!?

Upper OH Valley/Northern Mid-Atlantic... Dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s … ahead of the vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis. Even with this favorable low-level moisture, poor lapse rates and stunted daytime heating is expected to limit instability, with MLCAPE likely remaining below 1000 J/kg. Modest low to mid-level flow will extend across the region, resulting in deep layer shear supportive of a few stronger storms amidst a predominantly multicell storm mode. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts. NAM MODEL GFS MODEL LI LIFTED INDEX THURS EVE

Upper OH Valley/Northern Mid-Atlantic... Dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s … ahead of the vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis. Even with this favorable low-level moisture, poor lapse rates and stunted daytime heating is expected to limit instability, with MLCAPE likely remaining below 1000 J/kg. Modest low to mid-level flow will extend across the region, resulting in deep layer shear supportive of a few stronger storms amidst a predominantly multicell storm mode. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts.

Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER WX CAMP - Forecasting Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER

Perfect Forecast

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

Surface Observations YYZ = Station 57 = 50 = 155 = Temp Dewpoint SL Pressure = Sky cover Station = Temp = Dewpoint = Pressure = PIT 66 65 1013.8mb = SSW 5 kts =Lt. Rain