Factors that Can Cause Ethnic Conflict and Who Fights in them? Dr. Jared O. Bell, Assistant Professor of International Relations & Public Administration Faculty of Business and Administration International University of Sarajevo

What might be some factors that cause ethnic conflict? What Might be some real time everyday factors that might cause ethnic conflict. What might be some factors that cause ethnic conflict?

Ethnic Security Dilemma Security dilemmas as result of ‘fear- producing environments’: government breakdown; geographical isolation or vulnerability of a minority within a larger group; shifts in political power balance between groups; changes in access to or control over economic resources; forced or voluntary demobilisation of partisan armies; changes in external patronage or balance of power between rival patrons. Ethnic Security Dilemma

Ethnic Security Dilemma (2) Increased security of one group seen as coming at expense of insecurity of another; incentive for group to use force pre-emptively. How elites and masses respond to the ethnic security dilemma determines the outcome. Physical security, political security, economic and social security, cultural security, and environmental security. For leaders to mobilise followers to violence there must be ‘credible evidence’ of other groups’ hostile intentions. Ethnic Security Dilemma (2)

Ethnic Security Dilemma (3) Ethnic activists and political entrepreneurs Catalysts to make armed conflict more likely in situations of ethnic security dilemma. Ethnic activists: strong need for identification with their ethnic group; create pressures leading to ethnic polarisation and formation of conflict groups. Political entrepreneurs: manipulate and use ethnic identity and divisions to mobilise people and pursue political power. Both increase polarisation of society, making tensions more likely to turn violent. (Wolff 2006, chpt. 3) Ethnic Security Dilemma (3)

Risk screening process: Violent conflict in the past 10 years: If a country has experienced violent conflict in the past 10 years, there is a high possibility of recurrence of conflict. Low per capita GNI: Countries with low per capita GNIs face a higher risk of experiencing violent conflict. High dependence on primary commodities exports: Countries with a high dependence on primary commodities exports are more likely to experience violent conflict. Risk screening process:

Risk Screening Process: Political instability: It has two components transformation of the state structure: Restructuring of the state at frequent intervals signals serious instability and the likelihood that violence is being employed to bring about systemic changes. breakdown of law and order: When the government is not able to maintain control or effective rule (in certain parts or throughout the country), the breakdown of law and order, and hence violence, is likely. For violent conflict, these two factors can occur independently or in tandem. Risk Screening Process:

Who fights in Ethnic Conflicts? Who do you think participates in Ethnic Conflicts? Who fights in Ethnic Conflicts?

Who Fights in Ethnic Conflicts… Ethnic Conflicts can included a variety of actors: Formal Armies Police Militias Everyday Citizens Political Leaders Religious leaders Terrorist Groups Who Fights in Ethnic Conflicts…

Spread of Ethnic conflict Non-state actors role – escalation – when ethnic group is struggling for its status – support of neighboring kin. Diffusion- Ethnic kin appeal through IGOs and NGOs to destabilize the majority ethnic group. Spread of Ethnic conflict

Spread of Ethnic Conflict Escalation and diffusion when there is some change in the ethnic balance of power and in the competition for the distribution of social, economic and political resources. Degree of economic, social and cultural integration within regional and global system. Spread of Ethnic Conflict