“King Tide” on Sept. 29, 2015 Nag Marsh, Prudence Island, RI (Photo credit: Daisy Durant) “Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases.” Staudt et al. 2013. The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 11(9): 494-501.

Applying CCVATCH in MA – Cold Water Fisheries Objectives: Provide an introduction to the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats Discuss potential climate change impacts on cold water fisheries (directly and through alterations in non-climate stressor impacts) Apply CCVATCH to assess relative vulnerability at each of two sites

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for coastal habitats An Introduction

CCVATCH Description CCVATCH is a spreadsheet based decision support tool which allows users to assess the potential for climate effects to directly affect habitats and interact with habitat stressors and adaptive capacity to affect the habitat’s function and ability to persist. Exposure The change in climate the habitat is likely to experience Sensitivity How the habitat is likely to be affected by climate exposure. Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity The potential to ameliorate the effects of exposure or sensitivity Vulnerability The degree to which the habitat is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change.

Exposure Anticipated change in climate attributes that will potentially influence the habitat CO2 Temperature Precipitation change Sea level change Extreme climate events

Non-Climate Stressors Site conditions/factors that have been shown to impact the function or integrity of ecological habitats CO2 Temperature Precipitation change Sea level change Extreme climate events Invasive/nuisance Species Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Environmental Contaminants

Adaptive Capacity Inherent traits or external factors that allows a habitat to adjust to a changing climate CO2 Temperature Precipitation change Sea level change Extreme climate events Invasive/nuisance Species Nutrients Sedimentation Erosion Environmental Contaminants Degree of fragmentation Barriers to migration Recovery / regeneration ability Diversity of functional groups Management actions possible Human / institutional response

CCVATCH Components Scoring Spreadsheet Numerical scores for sensitivity are entered for each climate X stressor for each habitat A total sensitivity-exposure score is calculated for each habitat Adaptive capacity scores are entered for each habitat Certainty scores are assigned for each score entered A matrix combines the sensitivity and adaptive capacity scores to create the overall vulnerability score

Certainty Very High: Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus, information for local habitats 4 High: Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus, general information can be applied to local habitats 3 Medium: Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought, score based mostly on expert opinion 2 Low: Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts, score based on anecdotal observations 1 No direct or anecdotal evidence is available to support the score, topic needs further investigation

CCVATCH Components Background on impacts of stressors on habitats Guidance Document Background on impacts of stressors on habitats Review of research on each climate X stressor interaction Assessment questions Scoring examples List of literature, web, other resources Example facilitation plan

Resources Models Tools Expert Elicitation Site Visits Literature Review

CCVATCH Applications Prioritize restoration & resiliency planning efforts and acquisition areas Education and outreach to decision makers Guide policy and funding decisions Determine main sources of vulnerability Compare vulnerability across geographic locations Identify research and monitoring needs Identify future timing of significant management decisions

Overall Vulnerability High Very Low Vulnerability Low Vulnerability Moderate Vulnerability ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Low Vulnerability Moderate Vulnerability High Vulnerability Moderate Vulnerability High Vulnerability Very High Vulnerability Low High SENSITIVITY-EXPOSURE

Acknowledgements Thanks to the following individuals who were instrumental in the early planning and development [Eric Brunden, Nina Garfield, Patty Glick, and Patty Delgado] and to members of the scientific community who took time to review and provide suggestions on this guidance document [Norm Christensen, Scott Neubauer, R.E. Turner, and Mike Unger]. The development of this tool was made possible, in part, through a pilot project funded by a NERRS Science Collaborative Grant entitled Improving management of coastal habitats: Testing a tool to assess the vulnerability of coastal habitats to climate change impacts.

Questions? Robin Weber, Stewardship Coordinator Narragansett Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve robin@nbnerr.org; 401.683.7369