Verification using VERSUS at RHM Alexander Kirsanov and others WG5 session, COSMO GM, 3-7 Sept 2018, Saint Petersburg

VERSUS IMPLEMENTATION AT RHM: APPLICATIONS 1) Common Plots 2) Operational model implementations: COSMO-Ru7 COSMO-Ru13-ENA COSMO-Ru2-CFO Operational model runs: 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 3) Case studies/tuning 4) Research and custom model implementations 5) Ensemble verification Automatic scores for Operational model runs T2M, TD2M, MSLP, WSPD ME and RMSE 1835 monthly score files VERSUS can not calculate TCC (30 km) and Precipitation (12H) scores

VERSUS AUTOMATIC SCORE CALCULATION: INITIALIZATION date_start=... date_end=... rm .../VERSUS/log/... DELETE FROM versus.log_score WHERE id_select_criteria UPDATE versus.select_criteria SET start_date =..., end_date =... INSERT INTO versus.log_score wget ScoreExecNumericMulti.php Queue

VERSUS AUTOMATIC SCORE CALCULATION: COMPUTATION wget ScoreExecNumericMulti.php Queue mkdir RESULTS/... while((ready<...));do if grep .../VERSUS/log/... sleep wget php createContinuousGraphic SELECT step, index_value, number_value FROM versus.index_output mv ...VERSUS/html/versus/data/.../...png RESULTS/...

VERSUS AUTOMATIC SCORE CALCULATION: RESULTS Images Text data STEP ME NUMBER VALUE 0 0.153781 4226 3 0.0937081 4285 6 0.0266195 4255 9 -0.535898 4253 12 -0.936898 4281 15 -0.803717 4315 18 -0.585134 4285 21 -0.625948 4220 24 -0.294091 4226 STEP RMSE NUMBER VALUE 0 0.491732 4226 3 0.603648 4285 6 0.597199 4255 9 0.887606 4253 12 1.2553 4281 15 1.27376 4315 18 1.15823 4285 21 1.20473 4220 24 1.00166 4226 zip mail check your inbox

OPERATIONAL SCORES – TEMPERATURE AT 2M, °C DAY NIGHT

VERSUS SCORES – TEMPERATURE AT 2M, °C DAY NIGHT

VERSUS SCORES – TEMPERATURE AT 2M, °C DAY DAY

VERSUS SCORES – TEMPERATURE AT 2M, °C NIGHT NIGHT

VERSUS SCORES – DEW POINT TEMPERATURE AT 2M, °C DAY DAY

VERSUS SCORES – DEW POINT TEMPERATURE AT 2M, °C NIGHT NIGHT

VERSUS SCORES – PRESSURE REDUCED TO MEAN SEA LEVEL , hPa DAY DAY

VERSUS SCORES – PRESSURE REDUCED TO MEAN SEA LEVEL , hPa NIGHT NIGHT

VERSUS SCORES – WIND SPEED AT 10 M, m/s DAY DAY

VERSUS SCORES – WIND SPEED AT 10 M, m/s NIGHT NIGHT

VERSUS SCORES – ZERO LEAD TIME

VERSUS SCORES – TCC (30KM) SCORE PROBLEM

VERSUS SCORES – 12H PRECIPITATION SCORE PROBLEM

CONCLUSIONS VERSUS is used at RHM not only to prepare the data for Common Plots, there is an algorithm to calculate scores automatically and send them by e-mail, but… VERSUS cannot work with Russian 12 hour precipitation data, there are other problems like error during calculation of 30 km method continuous scores. When VERSUS does work, it produces results similar to Operational verification at RHM, differences compared to other verification software at RHM are being clarified. Scores are getting better from 2013 to 2018 year. Temperature at 2 m height has the highest RMSE during spring, with negative ME related to unstable snow cover. ME amplitude in seasonal cycle is decreasing. Dew point temperature at 2 m height has no significant RMSE trend, but ME is increasing. For Temperature at 2 m height and Dew point temperature at 2 m height RMSE and ME decreased the most for 00 lead time. This can be related to changes in driving model, data assimilation system, initial data correction algorithm at RHM.

Thank you for your attention!