Climate Resilient Crops for South Africa 2019 Miekie Human Grain SA: Research & Policy Centre AgBiz Symposium August 2019 Thank you chair. Good afternoon, today I will be talking about climate change, how it impacts the agricultural sector and what we as the research and policy center are doing to ensure that producers can keep on producing crops.

Grain SA’s Research & Policy Centre Vision and Mission Facilitate and co-ordinate grain and oilseed research and policy matters The unit aims to:  link producers, policy makers and research communities create a platform for interaction & communication on relevant issues ensure the implementation and evaluation of R&D policies and projects Firstly, I want to talk about our team and what we do. We facilitate and co-ordinate grain and oilseed research and policy matters, and fulfil in niche role in linking producers, policy makers and research communities. In doing so, we can create a platform for interaction and communication on relevant issues. This helps us to identify research gaps that is relevant to industry and also to identify resaerchers that can work on these issues. We also aim to ensure that R&D policies and projects are implemented and evaluated.

Aligning industry & government R&D priorities Before we can start with research projects, we need to do a lot of work to ensure that our priorities are aligned with the needs of the country. In doing so, effective partnerships can be built which benefit all players in the value chain and it also increases our access to funding. Along with food security and biosecurity, climate change is one of the priorities that’s shared between industry and government.

CLIMATE CHANGE Significant long-term change in expected patterns of average weather of a region over a significant period of time Increases in global average temperatures In essence, climate change is a significant long-term change in expected patterns of average weather of a region over a significant period of time. We know that global warming is an important driver of long-term changes to global weather conditions, and various predictions have been produced which show how temperatures will increase in the coming decades. On this map, you can see expected temperature changes by 2100 and how these differ between continents but also within countries.

CLIMATE CHANGE Expected effects in South Africa Increased temperatures (2.5 – 3˚C by 2050) Increased number of heatwave days and very hot days Changes in rainfall Nationally: Less rain with increases in extreme rainfall events 15-25% decrease in rainfall by 2050 Scenarios for different regions Western regions will become drier and hotter Interior and north-eastern regions will experience increased floods In South Africa, we expect that climate change will lead to increased temperatures and increases of 2.5 – 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 have been predicted if proper mitigation practices aren’t put in place. Increased temperatures will be accompanied by more heatwave days and more very hot days. We also expect changes to rainfall. At a national level, rainfall will decrease with more extreme rainfall events such as localized flooding and hail storms. In the summer rainfall regions, decreases of 15% have been predicted and in the winter rainfall region, 25%. At a regional level, the western regions where a lot of maize production is taking place hotter and drier regions will prevail making these regions no longer suitable for maize production. In the interior and north-eastern regions (such as KZN), increased flooding is predicted.

IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE Significant impacts on crop yields and production Crop yields dependent on heat and rainfall quantity and timing Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events Floods Droughts If we aren’t prepared, the impact of climate change on agriculture is expected to be severe. In non-irrigation areas, crop yields are dependent on the amount of heat and rainfall as well as timing thereof. Decreased rainfall will lead to less yields. In this past season, we’ve experienced the effects of erratic rainfall through the significant proportion of the national maize crop that was planted late in the season due to delayed rainfall.

IMPACT ON PESTS AND DISEASES Changes in distribution and incidence of pests and diseases Incursions and establishment of “new” pests and diseases Decreased effectivity of control measures Faster life cycles leads to resistance achieved more rapidly Pests will respond to climate change much quicker, and the altered environmental conditions will enable pests to move into areas that were previously unsuitable. Climate change will also affect the incidence of diseases we already have, some diseases will be favoured by the changing climate and will become much more severe. This will also affect the storage industry, as you can expect new storage pests or changes in the incidence of current pests and diseases. Global trade is increasing and we are facing higher risks of new pathogen introductions and disease outbreaks.

IMPACT ON GRAIN VALUE CHAIN Adapted cultivars Management strategies Input suppliers Production practices Producers Storage practices Silo owners Phytosanitary regulations Trade and export Unfortunately, climate change will affect the entire grain value chain. Some of these include Seed companies will need to develop cultivars better adapted to hotter and drier conditions. Resilient pest and disease management strategies will be needed to deal with new pests and diseases as well as existing pest and disease outbreaks. Producers will have to adapt their production practices to ensure they still get optimal yields. For silo owners, storage practices will be have to be reviewed and amended to limit incidence of these “new” pests and diseases in stored grain, but also to accommodate possibly higher incidences of current pests and diseases. Trade and export will also be impacted through changes in the types and amounts of crops produced.

SOLUTIONS National policies to support climate change responses Improve understanding of climate change impacts Build resilience to climate change Crops that can tolerate increased temperatures and drought Capacity to respond to climate change impacts Student training Fortunately, there are some solutions. On a national level we have policies to support climate change responses. Policies focus on coordination and cooperation between public and private entities. An improved understanding of climate change impacts which will enable us to build resilience to climate change, such as crops that can tolerate increased temperatures and drought. We also need to develop capacity to respond to these climate change impacts, such as developing researchers that can merge expertise in climate change with agriculture.

CLIMATE RESILIENT CROPS Understanding and mitigating climate change is a priority shared between government and industry Opportunity for co-funding Desired outcome: Resilient crops that can deliver equal or increased yield and nutrition under future climatic conditions Government priority: Food security Industry priority: Sustainable agriculture Collaboration between breeders, physiologists and climate scientists Climate resilient grain crops for SA Because understanding and mitigating climate change is priority shared between government and industry, this provides an opportunity for co-funding.

CLIMATE RESILIENT CROPS Maize Develop plant material resilient to future climatic conditions Collaboration between breeders, physiologists and climate scientists 1) Expanding genetic variability of maize for heat and drought stress 2) Crop physiology study - Maize responses under future climatic conditions/outside optimal planting window 3) Climate risk study – assist producers to manage climate risks (drought/increased temperatures) to minimise expected impact Increasing climate resilience - Based on producer-related issues

CLIMATE RESILIENT CROPS Maize Expand genetic variability of South African maize cultivars Breeding approach Incorporate drought resistant germplasm from other sources (CIMMYT) Chemical mutagenesis approach Induce random mutations, identify beneficial changes Desired outcomes: Drought and heat tolerant maize cultivars for SA farmers

CLIMATE RESILIENT CROPS Maize & wheat Crop physiology study Drought and heat responses under future climatic conditions CO2 levels, temperature increasing Predicted plant response: Use less water What does this mean for nutrient acquisition and quality parameters? Test responses of commercially available cultivars

CLIMATE RESILIENT CROPS Maize Crop physiology study Erratic rainfall delays planting, disrupts optimal planting window A study from Australia showed that early planting with slower-developing genotypes could increase yields in future (Hunt et al., 2019) Similar studies needed in SA Evaluate the responses of commercial maize cultivars when maize is planted outside the optimal planting window Keep outcomes

CLIMATE RESILIENT CROPS Maize & wheat Climate risk study Identify imminent climatic risks for a region More frequent drought conditions, increased temperatures, erratic rainfall, flooding Propose ways in which management practices can be adapted to minimise expected impacts Alternative crops Agronomic practices Regions Free State, North West, Eastern and Western Cape Keep outcomes

RHODES UNIVERSITY – CO2 FACILITY - Talk about consortia, different onces and specific one - These photos were taken earlier this year at the Rhodes Open-top elevated CO2 facility and you can see students and researchers involved in the climate resilience consortium. This facility was made possible by significant infrastructure investment by government but gives great opportunities for industry-specific research.

RECOMMENDATIONS Expand climate resilience studies More work on maize and wheat Other crops soybean, sunflower Be prepared for new exotic pests and diseases National On-farm, storage and processing National biosecurity for SA and this will rely on cooperation between public and private entities. Role players within sectors (producers, storage, processor) each one will have to take responsibility for managing biosecurity of facility. We all have a role to play to ensure proper biosecurity measures are implemented at these different levels (monitor, detect, report)

Thank you Grain Research & Policy Centre team www.grainsa.co.za

Climate change will affect the entire grain value chain Better adapted cultivars, new products Production practices Storage practices Different crops being planted Unfortunately, climate change will affect the entire grain value chain. Seed companies will need to develop cultivars better adapted to hotter and drier conditions. Resilient pest and disease management strategies will be needed to deal with new pests and diseases as well as existing pest and disease outbreaks. Producers will have to adapt their production practices to ensure they still get optimal yields. For silo owners, storage practices will be have to be reviewed and amended to limit incidence of these “new” pests and diseases in stored grain. Regions that become unsuitable for a particular crop will lead to changes in the crops being produced as well as export markets.