Forecast Verification time! Senor Perfect Forecast 74 81 5.5 ….

DAY 2 DAY 2

NAM precip during Tuesday (8 am – 8 pm) E-Wall (Precip/ Temp/ Cloud)

Weather Prediction Models Dynamical / Physical Statistical Conceptual

Computer Weather Model Physical Models Equations ATTEMPT TO describe how atmosphere works Equations describe how atmosphere behaves (i.e. how it works)

Statistical Weather Models MOS

(construct of the mind) Conceptual Models (construct of the mind)

Cyclogenesis – How storms form

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

L Sfc wx this morning H

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL - Soundings

500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS) This Afternoon L L H H

THR 0z = ? 8 p.m. Wed NAM MODEL LIFTED INDEX LIFTED INDEX = measure of how unstable atmosphere is between sfc and 500mb

...Pennsylvania into New York... A belt of modest cyclonic flow aloft will reside over a moderately unstable warm sector (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). A few storms may develop along the cold front or lake breeze boundaries across the southern G. Lakes and spread southeast to PA. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak along with modest 30-35 kt vertical shear. A few storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and marginal hail from afternoon to early evening. Soundings – vertical plots of T, w, q – great way to assess convective instability (at a single location)

500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS) This Afternoon Wind flow nearly parallel to isobars in upper levels = minimal friction

Ms. Sally Climo 73 81 5 PA

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL - Soundings

RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation - Varies between? - If in a cloud ….. RH = ? Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v) T = 85 D = 65 RH = 51% How can we make a cloud? RH Calculator