Inequality and radicalisation: Assessing the research evidence Tomislav Pavlović* and Renata Franc Ivo Pilar Institute of Social Sciences ISPP Annual meeting 12.-15.7. 2019., Lisbon *Tomislav Pavlović’s work on DARE has been supported by a Croatian Science Foundation within Young Researchers’ Career Development Project – Training of Doctoral Students (DOK-01-2018) financed by the European Union from the European Social Fund (ESF). This publication reflects only the views of the authors; the European Commission and Research Executive Agency are not responsible for any information it contains.

INTRODUCTION Presumption: inequality is positively related to radicalisation Unbalanced distribution of economic, social, political or other x across individuals or groups within a society Process by which individuals or groups come to embrace attitudes or engage in actions that support violence in the pursuit of extremist causes Sources of this presumption: Early social scientists who observed the relationship between inequality and violent revolutions (e.g., Marx, Toucqueville; as cited in Davies, 1952) Structural theories of political violence (e.g., Newman, 2006) Psychological studies of radicalisation as a process (e.g., Borum, 2003; Moghaddam, 2005) … Empirical support? Inconsistent findings of empirical studies Several reviews, none focusing specifically on inequality-radicalisation relationship Also inconsistent results Radicalisation the process by which individuals or groups come to embrace attitudes or engage in actions that support violence in the pursuit of extremist causes (Doosje et al., 2016: 79; Alonso et al., 2008) a relative concept - ‘radical or extremist ideologies matter, whether accompanied or not by violent action, while what causes individuals to cross the threshold into violence remains important’ (DARE, 2016: 17) a context-bound phenomenon (Alonso et al., 2008) cognitive and behavioural radicalisation

DARE: Systematic review of quantitative findings Aim and research questions: To enhance understanding of the role of inequality in radicalisation Is inequality associated with radicalisation? If so, how (positively or negatively), when, where and what can explain this association? http://www.dare-h2020.org/uploads/1/2/1/7/12176018/systematic_review_final.pdf

Flowchart of the literature search Data sources: 7 well-known databases Gray literature Expert consultation EMPIRICAL studies Relevant to both radicalisation and inequality 1 January 2001 - 31 December 2017 In English

84 macro-level (terrorism) studies 141 studies analysed: Dominant disciplines Political science and economics Dominant study types Descriptive case studies and cross-sectional studies Type of radicalisation / terrorism Islamist / general Context predominantly Muslim countries, Western Europe and Worldwide studies INDIVIDUAL LEVEL 42 survey research non-radicalised individuals 15 biographical evidence radicalised individuals SOCIAL LEVEL 84 macro-level (terrorism) studies

Conceptualising the inequality-radicalisation relationship

FINDINGS - INDIVIDUAL LEVEL

do not consistently predict radicalisation ECONOMIC INEQUALITY Objective: education, income, living in poverty Subjective: income dissatisfaction, poverty do not consistently predict radicalisation IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXT? Islamist behavioural radicalisation predominantly Muslim countries Inconsistent findings or more educated individuals Low number of studies Role in the terrorist group Participation in violence Type of violence! (e.g., against humans or objects) Contextual characteristics such as poverty at an individual and district level …should also be taken into account. Western European countries Less educated and those of a lower economic status

SOCIO-POLITICAL INEQUALITY PERCEIVED personal deprivation group deprivation unfair treatment discrimination injustice intergroup attitudes social identities ideological and religious beliefs Cognitive radicalisation positive relationship between PERCEIVED (subjective) social inequality and cognitive radicalisation probably indirect Regardless of the ideological orientation of radicalisation (Islamist or far-right) and context!

FINDINGS - SOCIAL LEVEL

do not consistently linearly predict radicalisation ECONOMIC INEQUALITY economic development GDP p.c. HDI Adult literacy Unemployment rates Education level However… do not consistently linearly predict radicalisation GDP p.c. Economic distribution GINI Poverty Interregional inequality Low number of studies! transnational terrorism domestic terrorism

SOCIO-POLITICAL INEQUALITY abuse of physical integrity rights repression more terrorism democracy civil right public liberties women’s rights However… do not consistently linearly predict radicalisation democracy

CONCLUSIONS Inequality, especially socio-political inequality is most probably related to radicalisation. However,… the complexity of inequality-radicalisation relationship the limitations of the evidence base the limitations of applied methodological approaches the limitations of applied statistical procedures …should be taken into account! all conclusions remain provisional

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