Fig. 2 The 100-year extinction risk of northern ortolan bunting breeding populations with respect to various scenarios of increased survival probability.

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Fig. 2 The 100-year extinction risk of northern ortolan bunting breeding populations with respect to various scenarios of increased survival probability (decreased illegal harvesting). The 100-year extinction risk of northern ortolan bunting breeding populations with respect to various scenarios of increased survival probability (decreased illegal harvesting). Different scenarios of increased habitat quality, and hence breeding performance (increased clutch size and more balanced sex ratio) are shown with different symbols, based on population viability analyses conducted with vital rates drawn from population dynamic research carried out in Norway (triangles; clutch size of 4.25 eggs, sex ratio with one male out of two finding a mate) and in Finland (squares; clutch size of 4.57 eggs, sex ratio with two males out of three successfully pairing), while further more optimistic scenarios are shown with circles (first with a larger clutch size of 4.9 eggs and then also with a more balanced sex ratio, with three of four males successfully pairing, as would happen in populations hypothetically well connected within a metapopulation system). Increased survival probability is shown in terms of the number of additional individuals (first and second values of the x axis legend) surviving the autumn migration (second value) or until the next spring (first value). The red rectangle encompasses the range of known and/or suspected harvested numbers in southwest France (estimated between 15,000 and 30,000 ortolans per autumn). The colors depict the IUCN Red List status of the population as estimated from maximum extinction probability after 10, 20, and 100 years and three and five generations (see Materials and Methods for details; green, Least Concern; orange, Vulnerable; red, Endangered). In the best demographic scenario, the extinction risk is predicted to drop from 100 to 66% if 15,000 additional buntings survive the fall or to only 15% if 30,000 additional buntings survive the fall migration. Photo credits: S. Minkevicius. Frédéric Jiguet et al. Sci Adv 2019;5:eaau2642 Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).