2018-19 Corn Situation and Outlook Southern Region Extension Outlook Conference Atlanta, GA September 25, 2018 Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor

U.S. Corn Condition Index

2016 2017 2018 2019 to 2023 Plant 94 96.2 89.1 91.1 to 92.3 mil acres Harvest 86.7 82.7 81.8

Feed Use

FSI and Ethanol Use – 1980 to 2018

FSI Use (Not Ethanol) – 1980-2018

Ethanol Use – 1980-2018

Export Use – 1975 – 2018

US Days of Corn Stocks

World Days of Corn Stocks

U.S. and World Corn Ending Stocks

Curse of good yields. Not likely to collect on RP insurance even with a low Harvest price

Budgeted Returns – 2018 Corn

Deferred price – Harvest Price ($3.25) – monthly interest 5.5%. Commercial is $0.20 to Jan 31 +$0.04/mo

Implied Change to 2018 Production – Sep to January Final

2018-19 Potential Change to Production and Effect on Stocks and Price

Simulated 2019 Return over TVC + Overhead ($/Acre) – Probability < $0 (Red) or >$200 (Green)

Hitting the Top 1/3 (and Avoiding the Bottom 1/3) for December Corn Futures

Summary and Conclusions Corn has a bullish story of declining world stock and declining domestic stocks. Exports could increase if dollar doesn’t strengthen. Price risk management and marketing plan is important to prepare for pricing opportunities. Futures market has provided brief opportunities of >$4.00 DEC futures last three years if prepared to hedge Corn market could handle 1.95 million more acres in 2019 IF we can get trend yields. Concern is if we “buy” a lot more acres and are blessed with above trend yields. Especially market’s reaction to perceived large planted area

Thank you! I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have. todd.davis@uky.edu For updated information, look at my monthly newsletter Crops Marketing and Management Update http://www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEcon/extmkt.php (or send me an email to subscribe)