Week 18 Review Another week partially becalmed by holidays. The Fed was less dovish (i.e. more hawkish) than expected on Wednesday. Global equities were essentially flat on the week, but only because of a surge on Friday. The USD drops on the week but does not make a lower low, so we can say the upwards trend (on the weekly chart) is intact. The EUR drops on the week, making a lower low on the weekly chart, and as such maintaining its downwards trend. The NZD is developing a downwards trend on the weekly chart, after another fall.

19 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 6/5/19 Fundamentals Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Trump threatens China tariffs, markets react predictably; UK PM May says Labour Brexit deal close Lighthizer confirms sanctions to begin Friday as China reneging on commitments Chinese Premier Lui He will travel to Washington for trade talks this week Chinese Premier Lui He arrives in Washington Tariffs on China increased. Trump receives “beautiful” letter from Chinese counterpart. Turkey buys TRY to bolster currency. Risk US/China trade volatility Themes Equities, EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDTRY USD Strong Dovish Fed, less QT, emollient Trump PPI (Headline/Core miss) CPI EUR Weak?? Dovish ECB week 10 Partial Holiday JPY Swing Holiday GBP Ongoing Brexit uncertainty GDP – m/m miss; q/q in line; Manu Production CAD Comm Trade Balance (Un)employment AUD Retail Sales; Cash Rate – unchanged despite expectation Monetary Policy Statement – expects 2 cuts to 1.00%. NZD Inflation Expectations Cash Rate – 25bp reduction CNY Caixin Services PMI Trade Balance – Exports down, imports up Equities QT, Tax bill, earnings, less QT, concerns about global growth Gold Oil Crazy Iran sanctions, OPEC+ production cut; concerns about global growth API Inventories: +2.8m vs exp +1.2m EIA Inventories: -4.0m vs exp +1.1m

Week 19 Review A week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, with tariffs imposed on Friday, but effectively not in force for 2 to 4 weeks. Elsewhere the Australian central bank surprised by keeping rates unchanged despite the expectation (51/49) of a fall, so maybe not too much of a surprise. Then the RBNZ surprises by cutting rates despite a slight expectation to remain unchanged. Most global equities fell over the week, despite a rally on Friday. The USD rises slightly over the week, maintaining its upwards trend (on W1). The EUR rises over the weak, but does not break its downwards trend (on W1). Commodity currencies all drop on the week, as expected with trade concerns. The JPY rises on risk-off sentiment, as expected.

20 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 13/5/19 Fundamentals Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events China retaliate on tariffs. Trump says China deal yes or no in 3-4 weeks but he is optimistic. Meet Xi at G20 (end June, Osaka). Trump to delay auto tariffs on EU by up to 6 months Risk Off On On, then off Themes Equities – short or long; strong JPY, USD, weak commodity currencies USD Strong Dovish Fed, less QT, emollient Trump Retail Sales – Core/Headline EUR Weak?? Dovish ECB week 10 German Prelim GDP JPY Swing GBP Ongoing Brexit uncertainty Average Earnings Cross party Brexit talks collapse CAD Comm CPI AUD Wage Price Index (Un)employment Elections (Saturday) – Surprise win for ruling coalition and PM Morrison, beating Labour NZD CNY Industrial Production; Fixed Asset Investment Equities QT, Tax bill, earnings, less QT, concerns about global growth Gold Oil Crazy Iran sanctions, OPEC+ production cut; concerns about global growth API Inventories: +8.6m vs exp -1.3m EIA Inventories: +5.4m vs exp 0.0m

Week 20 Review Another week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, with tariff retaliation by the Chinese, although Trump is optimistic of a positive result in 3 to 4 weeks. Brexit uncertainty continues. The AUD falls as the heavily scrutinised employment and unemployment numbers both miss expectations. A surprise election result on Saturday lifts the AUD and the AUS200 on the following Monday 20th May. Global equities are mixed over the week. The USD rises maintaining its upwards trend (on W1). The EUR rises over the weak, almost but not quite breaking its downwards trend (on W1). The JPY rises on negative sentiment. AUD and NZD continue down on trade concerns.

21 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 20/5/19 Current Trend W1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Report US/China trade talks stalled; Google ceases to work with Huawei 90 day general license granted to Huawei China “preparing for long trade war” – generally negative comments from various officials Trump says good possibility of China trade deal and Huawei could be included Risk Off Neutral/on Themes USD Up FOMC Mtg Mins – neutral EUR Down Services and Manufacturing PMI; EU Elections EU Elections (and Saturday) JPY Swing GBP PM May’s latest Brexit offer falls apart CPI Retail Sales; PM May to resign 7th June CAD No trend Holiday Retail Sales AUD Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – more focus on labour market, considering rate cut in June. Westpac now expects 3 rate cuts this year NZD CNY Equities Gold Oil OPEC+ JMMC mtg say cut compliance at 150% in April, June mtg to discuss production hike in H2. API Inventories: +2.4m vs exp +0.6m EIA Inventories: +4.7m vs exp -1.2m 5% drop due to risk tone exacerbated by technical selling

Week 21 Review Yet another week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, and China “preparing for a long trade war”. However, at the end of the week Trump says “good possibility of a China deal and Huawei could be included.” PM May says she will resign on 7th June. More pressure on the AUD – RBA says it is considering a rate cut in June. The week closes with Westpac saying it now expects 3 rate cuts this year. WTI drops 6.6% over the week on sentiment and technical selling. On the W1 chart… Equities drop over the week. GOLD has its 6th week in a tight range. USD maintains its upwards trend although has a down week. EUR rises over the week, and technically breaks its down trend. The GBP continues to slide. The JPY rises on negative sentiment. AUD and NZD have a slight rally, but things still look grim for the AUD in particular.

22 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR w/c 27/5/19 Current Trend W1 chart Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events (Sunday) - EU Elections. Brexit Party win in UK. Populists do well across the EU. Risk Off Themes Equities, Oil (reversal of technical selling), AUD weakness, USDTRY (TRY weakness – monitor), GBP weakness USD Up Holiday Prelim GDP Core PCE Price Index EUR Down trend broken Holiday (FR, DE) German Prelim CPI JPY Swing Tokyo Core CPI GBP Down CAD No trend Rate Statement GDP AUD Rally on downtrend? JP Morgan calling for 4 cuts by mid 2020 NZD Financial Stability Report Annual Budget CNY Manufacturing PMI Equities Dipping from highs Gold Consolidating Oil Recovery from technical selling? API Inventories EIA Inventories